Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[KEITH L.I]

Living out here in Central PA, I am now a spectator..What do the winds look like at landfall?

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, KEITH L.I said:

Living out here in Central PA, I am now a spectator..What do the winds look like at landfall?

Inland probably sees very little wind issues, perhaps gusts to 40 in the typical elevated spots. Rain, and potentially lots of it, is the major issue for us inlanders.

[MJO812]

Recon still has the storm south of where the models show it

[forkyfork]

i can't rule out a tucked in nyc landfall

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Inland probably sees very little wind issues, perhaps gusts to 40 in the typical elevated spots. Rain, and potentially lots of it, is the major issue for us inlanders.

Honestly west of the center might see very little wind issues even if it comes across the middle of the island.  Alot depends on if it undergoes any sort of transition.  If it more or less is purely tropical you might only see 30G45 at best west of the center 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

W-C LI is probably the furthest west this can get. Don’t see a direct NYC LF but even a landfall near ISP gets NYC proper into TS conditions but likely not much further west than that 

I think it can get as far west as Gloria got which is right around there.

Any further west than that and we'll get into the dryslot lol.

[Rtd208]

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Honestly west of the center might see very little wind issues even if it comes across the middle of the island.  Alot depends on if it undergoes any sort of transition.  If it more or less is purely tropical you might only see 30G45 at best west of the center 

but much more rain while east of center dryslots

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i can't rule out a tucked in nyc landfall

good, lets destroy everything lol

I guess you're basing this on the tropical models which have come furthest west and some are right over the city

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Living out here in Central PA, I am now a spectator..What do the winds look like at landfall?

why did you move out to the middle of nowhere, Keith?

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I agree. Should be an interesting next few model runs. Remember the Euro has been underestimating the the WAR. It didn’t start showing Fred going further to our west until practically nowcast time.

it's interesting to see a TC with a westerly component even at landfall at our latitude.  The pre-existing conditions are nowhere as anomalous as they were with Sandy.  Is this something we're going to be seeing more of with slowing down of the jet stream and all the other things we've been discussing?  There are parallels in history for individual events (like the 1903 ACY hurricane) but taken as a collective, I don't think there has been a period of recorded history that has seen so many storms landfalling this far west.

 

[crossbowftw3]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Honestly west of the center might see very little wind issues even if it comes across the middle of the island.  Alot depends on if it undergoes any sort of transition.  If it more or less is purely tropical you might only see 30G45 at best west of the center 

I definitely have to be inclined to start believing the flood potential here inland if the center trends any closer to that W-C LI goalpost 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

This is only going to come so far west. The short wave or trough in the mid-levels will kick this north soon.

[KEITH L.I]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why did you move out to the middle of nowhere, Keith?

 

Elizabethtown..beautiful area! Wish I was back on the Island this weekend for the hurricane..Anyway be safe Long Islanders

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i can't rule out a tucked in nyc landfall

Basically a continuation of our tucked in tracks. 

Major flooding for NJ if this gets near NYC. Surge & hurricane gusts out on LI.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

This is only going to come so far west. The short wave or trough in the mid-levels will kick this north soon.

unless it absorbs it

 

[rclab]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i can't rule out a tucked in nyc landfall

I have a sense when forky goes to serious mode. Thats when I judge the post as if it were an EFHutton commercial. As always ….

[forkyfork]

 

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but much more rain while east of center dryslots

 

I’d much rather be west of the center of this. No one talks about how the Jersey Shore, LI and NYC had less than 1” rain from Sandy and how DC got crushed by 6-8”. Starting to get concerned with these west trends. Hopefully those are done and it ticks back east. This won’t be a Sandy but east of the center could still be in for some really rough surge and wind. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d much rather be west of the center of this. No one talks about how the Jersey Shore, LI and NYC had less than 1” rain from Sandy and how DC got crushed by 6-8”. Starting to get concerned with these west trends. Hopefully those are done and it ticks back east. This won’t be a Sandy but east of the center could still be in for some really rough surge and wind. 

I talk about it lol.  We had 1 inch of rain but it was spread out over a day and a half.  Where is the ideal spot where you get the best of both worlds?  Was that south Jersey for Sandy?  Maybe the Delaware coast?

 

 

[Rtd208]

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches for the rest of the NYC metro and portions of the Jersey Shore this afternoon?? Things sure seem to be pointing that way.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches for the rest of the NYC metro and portions of the Jersey Shore this afternoon?? Things sure seem to be pointing that way.

I doubt the NHC will adjust their track and resultant warnings too much today. If the far west trend is real then maybe tomorrow 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I doubt the NHC will adjust their track and resultant warnings too much today. If the far west trend is real then maybe tomorrow 

If the trends continue at 12z I would at least extend the hurricane watch to Sandy Hook. West of the track won’t have anywhere near the wind impact of places east but the 30 mile difference in track to the west could bring it into NYC. Keep in mind also with the wet ground the wind will cause a ton of tree damage. Likewise with Isaias there was almost no rain over LI but lots of wind and tree damage. The talking point after wasn’t how NJ got 3-5” rain. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the trends continue at 12z I would at least extend the hurricane watch to Sandy Hook. West of the track won’t have anywhere near the wind impact of places east but the 30 mile difference in track to the west could bring it into NYC. Keep in mind also with the wet ground the wind will cause a ton of tree damage. Likewise with Isaias there was almost no rain over LI but lots of wind and tree damage. The talking point after wasn’t how NJ got 3-5” rain. 

I’d agree.  

[David-LI]

What do you guys think of the rapid intensification seen on the NAM 3k? I'd like to see if tomorrow that will verify and we have Henri at 975mb.

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

What do you guys think of the rapid intensification seen on the NAM 3k? I'd like to see if tomorrow that will verify and we have Henri at 975mb.

You can’t ever really use the NAM 3k for TC genesis and intensification. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

What do you guys think of the rapid intensification seen on the NAM 3k? I'd like to see if tomorrow that will verify and we have Henri at 975mb.

3k always overdoes it with tropical systems 

[Rtd208]

 

[David-LI]

That left turn again on the NAM

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i can't rule out a tucked in nyc landfall

Uh oh