Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[LibertyBell]

it's bright and sunny here hopefully this storm is getting the boot now, it needs to go, it's overstayed its welcome and now it's time for sunshine and dry

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yep here too but I'd call it something more like - dense moderate - thoroughly soaking, medium droplet size and falling fast. 

good keep it there lol I'm enjoying my bright sunny skies

[doncat]

Event rainfall here 5.24".

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I remember waking up that morning , checking the radar and seeing a sub 940 low about to pull west.  It was the most fascinating thing I ever witnessed.

I also remember people calling bust during the day when nothing was happening.

A 946mb low in Atlantic City is about the most extreme event we will ever witness. Maybe out great great grandkids will see it again someday. Can’t emphasize sandy’s impact enough. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, doncat said:

Event rainfall here 5.24".

A little over 4” in Long Beach I think and 3” in Huntington. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A 946mb low in Atlantic City is about the most extreme event we will ever witness. Maybe out great great grandkids will see it again someday. Can’t emphasize sandy’s impact enough. 

38 was a more impactful storm east of its center with a true cat 3 tropical core. I could see a scenario where we something similar displaced 50 miles west. That’s the ultimate storm we could hypothetically see here as a cat 3 core would bring a higher storm surge and obviously much greater winds then sandy. You would obliterate the power grids with PR style outages lasting months 

[doncat]

Pouring again.

[gravitylover]

These popcorn showers today are definitely not the kind of popcorn I like. 

[wdrag]

Can Central Park finish August with 10"+?. over-under  for 10"+ CP in August 2021?  Not a gimme...  IF i've read the data correctly. NYC  at 2PM/23 is 9.65".  Not setting up a wager but this could be interesting leading up to Sept 1.  Shower risk yes, but no guarantee from me that CP sees 0.36" more between 2P today and the end of the month, unless maybe this afternoons convection ends this bit of fun. 

In the meantime: I've added some final CoCoRAHS maps for the past 24 (endings 23rd) and 48 hours (13z 22nd-23rd combined)

Verifying: I think I'd give an overall Moderate impact event.  We fortunately missed 50 KT gusts (and associated power loss) and the CF was also apparently significantly less.  The rainfall in broad generalities was pretty big, with a fairly high impact band (s) NYC--along I80 NJ into ne PA.  

HPC HREF did a consistently good job with the QPF and the Hurricane Models I think outperformed most if not all the typically reviewed Extra Trop models both mesoscale and global. 

 

[doncat]

Just got a quick 0.42 " from an isolated shower...yard and woods very swampy.

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

fwiw NHC will never make that mistake again.  It should always have been a hurricane right up to landfall. I have major issues with these definitions (same with blizzards.)

 

First of all I absolutely hate the Saffir Simpson scale for various reasons (not the least of which is that a lot more than just wind goes into how much damage is caused in a storm), but putting that aside for a second, the scale should be in 5 mph increments, so to have Cat 1 at 74 mph is pointless when measurements are rounded to 5 mph, make it 75 mph.....on top of that ANY storm with winds of 75 mph should be a hurricane not just one that is fully "tropical".  People on the ground care about the wind speed not where the storm came from or what it turned into,  if you really want a separate definition for the truly tropical ones call them tropical hurricanes.  Hurricane needs to STAY in the definition because thats what people pay attention to, so a storm like Sandy shouldn't be called a "Superstorm" because that isn't a real thing, there is no scientific definition for one.  It should ALWAYS be called a hurricane.

With blizzards I think it's ridiculous that we dont have a snowfall component to it.  Those things that happen in the midwest with little or no snowfall actually falling should be called ground blizzards, while we should have a separate definition for ours that also has a snowfall component to it (10 inches in 12 hours or 20 inches in 24 hours.)

/rant(s)

From a meteorological perspective Sandy was a hybrid storm for a good part of its existence outside of the Caribbean.  It comes down to the realization on the part of the NHC that both subtropical and tropical storms can be highly destructive.  At the end of the day the public needs to be warned in advance of a system that can bring high winds, storm surge, and heavy flooding rains.  Both of these types of storms can do that.  Up to about a decade or so ago only tropical systems were named and subtropical ones weren’t unless they became tropical.  Now both are and the process/experience with how Sandy was tracked and the agencies responsible to do so were crystallized.  A true hurricane is defined by its scientific/meteorological characteristics and the definition is not going to be changed for the sake of issuing warnings.  That is why we have the current system in place.  Regarding the Saffir/Simpson scale, this was developed by pioneering tropical meteorologists back in the 60s and 70s. I believe it serves its purpose well.  To relate the scale to wind increments of 5 mph makes no sense.  The purpose of the scale is to relate the wind speeds and overall intensity of it to the potential damage and it can and does cause.  

[nycwinter]

27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Can Central Park finish August with 10"+?. over-under  for 10"+ CP in August 2021?  Not a gimme...  IF i've read the data correctly. NYC  at 2PM/23 is 9.65".  Not setting up a wager but this could be interesting leading up to Sept 1.  Shower risk yes, but no guarantee from me that CP sees 0.36" more between 2P today and the end of the month, unless maybe this afternoons convection ends this bit of fun. 

In the meantime: I've added some final CoCoRAHS maps for the past 24 (endings 23rd) and 48 hours (13z 22nd-23rd combined)

Verifying: I think I'd give an overall Moderate impact event.  We fortunately missed 50 KT gusts (and associated power loss) and the CF was also apparently significantly less.  The rainfall in broad generalities was pretty big, with a fairly high impact band (s) NYC--along I80 NJ into ne PA.  

HPC HREF did a consistently good job with the QPF and the Hurricane Models I think outperformed most if not all the typically reviewed Extra Trop models both mesoscale and global. 

 

it is a gimme 8 days left in the month heck we may still break it today with a heavy shower..

[nycwinter]

right on cue a heavy shower now in upper manhattan..when i say upper  just a few blocks from central park..hopefully this will put us over the top..

[nycwinter]

that was a quick heavy shower not even 10 minutes..

[dWave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it's bright and sunny here hopefully this storm is getting the boot now, it needs to go, it's overstayed its welcome and now it's time for sunshine and dry

 

Raining again here..basically 20 mins of sunshine and a downpour develops. Same cycle repeats all day.

Actually its partly sunny with mod rain now. Very FL type day.

[wdrag]

19 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it is a gimme 8 days left in the month heck we may still break it today with a heavy shower..

Hope you're right. 

[jm1220]

Tropical downpour here in Long Beach. Feels like a rainforest outside. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

38 was a more impactful storm east of its center with a true cat 3 tropical core. I could see a scenario where we something similar displaced 50 miles west. That’s the ultimate storm we could hypothetically see here as a cat 3 core would bring a higher storm surge and obviously much greater winds then sandy. You would obliterate the power grids with PR style outages lasting months 

If Sandy did not take the track it took, it would have been just another Cat 1 hurricane for us. The track and slow speed created the historical flooding which Sandy will be remembered for.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A 946mb low in Atlantic City is about the most extreme event we will ever witness. Maybe out great great grandkids will see it again someday. Can’t emphasize sandy’s impact enough. 

it was probably sub 940 and a Cat 2 just before landfall

 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If Sandy did not take the track it took, it would have been just another Cat 1 hurricane for us. The track and slow speed created the historical flooding which Sandy will be remembered for.

it was Cat 2 and strengthening, just another doesnt make sense, the sheer size of the storm gave it more energy than any other hurricane other than Katrina

SS scale doesn't describes hurricanes like this well

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Tropical downpour here in Long Beach. Feels like a rainforest outside. 

wow the sun is blindingly bright, how are you getting rain lol

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Raining again here..basically 20 mins of sunshine and a downpour develops. Same cycle repeats all day.

Actually its partly sunny with mod rain now. Very FL type day.

reminds me of squalls we see in the winter this area where I live never gets any convection lol

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

From a meteorological perspective Sandy was a hybrid storm for a good part of its existence outside of the Caribbean.  It comes down to the realization on the part of the NHC that both subtropical and tropical storms can be highly destructive.  At the end of the day the public needs to be warned in advance of a system that can bring high winds, storm surge, and heavy flooding rains.  Both of these types of storms can do that.  Up to about a decade or so ago only tropical systems were named and subtropical ones weren’t unless they became tropical.  Now both are and the process/experience with how Sandy was tracked and the agencies responsible to do so were crystallized.  A true hurricane is defined by its scientific/meteorological characteristics and the definition is not going to be changed for the sake of issuing warnings.  That is why we have the current system in place.  Regarding the Saffir/Simpson scale, this was developed by pioneering tropical meteorologists back in the 60s and 70s. I believe it serves its purpose well.  To relate the scale to wind increments of 5 mph makes no sense.  The purpose of the scale is to relate the wind speeds and overall intensity of it to the potential damage and it can and does cause.  

But even authorities like Rick Knabb has said that SS scale isn't an impact scale and a separate scale needs to be developed for impact that includes IKE and storm size.  Makes a big difference especially with surge where storm size really matters.

Wind speed isn't everything.

Also we have hurricane wind warnings for a reason, if you look at the Beaufort scale, it defines any storm with 75 mph winds as a hurricane, I would go with that.

The reason for wind speed increments is because of how information is reported....you never hear about 74 mph Cat 1s or 96 mph Cat 2s or 111 mph Cat 3s or 157 mph Cat 5s.....each should be rounded either up or down to the nearest 5 mph increment which is how the data is reported to the public.  Cat 4 avoids this mess because that has been revised to 130 mph (I suggest such a revision for each category, and TS should be 40 mph not 39 mph too)

 

[HailMan06]

I’ve never seen the air this clear before, especially in such a humid airmass.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

38 was a more impactful storm east of its center with a true cat 3 tropical core. I could see a scenario where we something similar displaced 50 miles west. That’s the ultimate storm we could hypothetically see here as a cat 3 core would bring a higher storm surge and obviously much greater winds then sandy. You would obliterate the power grids with PR style outages lasting months 

I think the 1821 Hurricane if it happened again right on that track and maintained that intensity (which was greater than 1938) would be the ultimate storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, HailMan06 said:

I’ve never seen the air this clear before, especially in such a humid airmass.

I was saying that yesterday, it's like all the rain cleaned out all the pollution.

Maybe a lot of that haze was from air pollution that has now been cleaned out, oooooh this is how the sky is supposed to look!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Can Central Park finish August with 10"+?. over-under  for 10"+ CP in August 2021?  Not a gimme...  IF i've read the data correctly. NYC  at 2PM/23 is 9.65".  Not setting up a wager but this could be interesting leading up to Sept 1.  Shower risk yes, but no guarantee from me that CP sees 0.36" more between 2P today and the end of the month, unless maybe this afternoons convection ends this bit of fun. 

In the meantime: I've added some final CoCoRAHS maps for the past 24 (endings 23rd) and 48 hours (13z 22nd-23rd combined)

Verifying: I think I'd give an overall Moderate impact event.  We fortunately missed 50 KT gusts (and associated power loss) and the CF was also apparently significantly less.  The rainfall in broad generalities was pretty big, with a fairly high impact band (s) NYC--along I80 NJ into ne PA.  

HPC HREF did a consistently good job with the QPF and the Hurricane Models I think outperformed most if not all the typically reviewed Extra Trop models both mesoscale and global. 

 

Some of those totals seem a little off..... 7 inches at JFK and just 3 east of there?  From Saturday night onwards no one in the local area should have less than 6...hey Walt can you add one more map from Sat 8/21 thru Mon 8/23 because we had a whole lot of rain Saturday evening starting here around 6 PM

 

 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it was Cat 2 and strengthening, just another doesnt make sense, the sheer size of the storm gave it more energy than any other hurricane other than Katrina

SS scale doesn't describes hurricanes like this well

 

The major hurricane  combined with the strong cold front which energized Sandy.  There was also a full moon and high tide.

[MJO812]

Then a week later we had a snowstorm lol

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Then a week later we had a snowstorm lol

Yes I loved that a lot more than the October 2011 snowstorm lol, this was a real snowstorm and all snow lol