Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[Gravity Wave]

The models struggled with this storm up to the last minute with virtually every aspect other than timing.

[guinness77]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow I see that here too.  Why is that part of the sky an electric blue?  It's pretty amazing, no haze even with all this humidity.

 

I had to take a picture. It’s amazing the contrast between my front yard and back yard. Haha, I think I’m annoying my wife obsessing about it. 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We should have just gone with climo, heaviest rainfall totals for those more than 100 miles west of the eye, progressively lesser as you get closer to the point of landfall and even less further east.

And that NJ somehow will get the heaviest rain amounts. Always works out some way. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The Euro and Ukie gave 5+ over and over.   I guess rain finds the same areas it always does regardless of track. 

It was the bend NW which models were showing but it’s see to believe. That plus the bent SW rain axis and it’s congrats NJ as usual. 

[SnoSki14]

Lucked out big time. Less than 2" 

[LoboLeader1]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

That part of the BRP is always prone to flooding, seen it flood during a heavy t-storm.

[Snowlover11]

another tor warning in ne pa.

[sussexcountyobs]

29 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

Sparta, NJ has been getting deluged now for an hour plus.  I don't have specific totals as I don't have a great gauge here but there are plenty of stations online.

Judging by the radar, we're going to have a issue if this doesn't break up or move on pretty soon.

Here in Veron, NJ, right at Canistear Reservoir,  I do not have an official rain gauge. Just a 5 gallon pail out in the open. It's slightly tapered on the top, so it is not an accurate measurement. I just measured. 3.7" in bucket. So, maybe only 3"?

[tmagan]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park received 1.94” of rain in the last hour. That set a new hourly record. The old record was 1.76”, which was set on September 8, 2004. 

Total Central Park JJA rainfall in 1999 = 3.92"

[lee59]

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

And that NJ somehow will get the heaviest rain amounts. Always works out some way. 

Actually to this point, Brooklyn seems to have the heaviest totals.

[nycsnow]

Radar filling back in all of Staten Island is now raining again 

[bluewave]

Henri is another example of how extreme the Western Atlantic Ridge has become. This is the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Rhode Island after tracking within 200 miles of Bermuda. Absent such a strong WAR, Henri would have went harmlessly out to sea.

Tracks of 350 tropical cyclones passing within 200 miles of Bermuda

 

[Gravity Wave]

13 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Radar filling back in all of Staten Island is now raining again 

Manhattan as well.

[nycsnow]

Rains back building over Brooklyn and Staten Island 

[Gravity Wave]

NNJ river forecasts busting way low.

[sussexcountyobs]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Henri is another example of how extreme the Western Atlantic Ridge has become. This is the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Rhode Island after tracking within 200 miles of Bermuda. Absent such a strong WAR, Henri would have went harmlessly out to sea.

Tracks of 350 tropical cyclones passing within 200 miles of Bermuda

 

So with all do respect, what does that mean? Also, in how many years where those 350 storms?

[jdt]

34 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Here in Veron, NJ, right at Canistear Reservoir,  I do not have an official rain gauge. Just a 5 gallon pail out in the open. It's slightly tapered on the top, so it is not an accurate measurement. I just measured. 3.7" in bucket. So, maybe only 3"?

As of 7:15PM 3.90” in the Stratus.

[donsutherland1]

Bronx River Parkway:

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

So with all do respect, what does that mean? Also, in how many years where those 350 storms?

Near to record breaking 500mb heights over Eastern North America and the Western Atlantic altering  the storm tracks and weather patterns. The tropical cyclone database goes back to 1851. That area around Bermuda has always been busy place for shipping. So it would be a tougher area to miss storms before the satellite era. Plus all landfalling systems near the Northeast have been well documented in the record books. Their tracks were traced back through the Atlantic. 
 

Near to record breaking 500 mb heights in the lead up to Henri

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, dWave said:

I tried to get by the Bronx River near Gun Hill, but its pouring so relentlessly I gave up. I remember after Irene it was maybe the highest levels I ever saw, at the current rate this will probably reach or exceed that but I dunno if upstream is getting as much rain as the city to add to the runoff down here. Some of the parks along the parkway got covered in several feet of water back then.

Large parts of the parkway are now flooded.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Did Central Park have two hours on 8/21/21 rather than just one that belong at the top of this list? Per the NYC NWS Twitter, NYC got 1.94" 10-11 PM and 1.84" 11PM-midnight:

 

No. From 10-11 pm, 1.38” fell. From 11 pm-midnight 1.94” fell.

[gpsnavigator]

24 minutes ago, jdt said:

As of 7:15PM 3.90” in the Stratus.

There are several weather underground stations showing high 3, low 4 inch totals around Lake Mohawk.  One is showing 5.45 but that's an outlier.

I can believe 4 inches has fallen here so far, I'm assuming these totals are since midnight.

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

No. From 10-11 pm, 1.38” fell. From 11 pm-midnight 1.94” fell.

Then why does their Twitter that I linked above say that Central Park ASOS had 1.94" 10-11 and 1.84" 11-midnight? Are we talking about the same station?

 

"In addition to being the wettest day since 2014... the 1.94" of rain that fell from 10pm to 11pm at Central Park last night was the wettest hour on record for New York City."

 

"The Central Park ASOS broke the daily maximum rainfall record for 8/21 with 4.45 inches of rain! Most of this rain fell over a 2 hour period, with 1.84 inches falling from 11pm to midnight."

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

And that NJ somehow will get the heaviest rain amounts. Always works out some way. 

the qpf queens still have their crowns lol

but it might be rust after all this rain

[jdt]

4 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

There are several weather underground stations showing high 3, low 4 inch totals around Lake Mohawk.  One is showing 5.45 but that's an outlier.

I can believe 4 inches has fallen here so far, I'm assuming these totals are since midnight.

My running total is for the entire event which begin with some lighter rain yesterday evening. 

[wdrag]

8 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

There are several weather underground stations showing high 3, low 4 inch totals around Lake Mohawk.  One is showing 5.45 but that's an outlier.

I can believe 4 inches has fallen here so far, I'm assuming these totals are since midnight.

Yes...calender day.   Wantage NJ, this part now going up over an inch/hr with real  rate 2.5"/hr and no thunder.  2.96 for the day so far.  

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Henri is another example of how extreme the Western Atlantic Ridge has become. This is the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Rhode Island after tracking within 200 miles of Bermuda. Absent such a strong WAR, Henri would have went harmlessly out to sea.

Tracks of 350 tropical cyclones passing within 200 miles of Bermuda

 

It would've been even more extreme had it made landfall in Long Island but it never got as strong as it was supposed to get otherwise the western solutions would've verified 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, tmagan said:

Total Central Park JJA rainfall in 1999 = 3.92"

one of my favorite summers,  those 90s summers were something.....91, 93, 95, 99 all the way to 2002.... rain usually held off until after summer like 1999 when Floyd hit in September

[wdrag]

Two 7's in here, just a quick scan... 

[hudsonvalley21]

Upton’s Latest QPF map.  I assume they are forecasting this is on top what has already fallen.