Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[donsutherland1]

Through 4 pm, Central Park’s 2-day rainfall is 6.29”. That is the 4th highest 2-day figure on record for August.

 

[gravitylover]

Oh yeah -

~.8" so far, no wind and no drama. I like the no damage thing but it hasn't been much of a storm.

[crossbowftw3]

Finally at nearly 4 PM the first sustained steady rain has made it to my end of Sullivan County.

[Brasiluvsnow]

29 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Incredibly heavy rain rates with that line moving though rockland.

BX, I can vouch for this ( New City here ) and I will have to get some out of my pool soon as it has really filled up the past hour or so

[nycwinter]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through 4 pm, Central Park’s 2-day rainfall is 6.29”. That is the 4th highest 2-day figure on record for August.

 

if we can get another inch or 2 we will i think have 2 months in a row over 10 inches in the park i wonder if that has ever happened before.

[BxEngine]

Just like winter, its fun reading back through the thread of the people who are too cool to believe certain models and “there is no way we’ll see even remotely close To those totals”. 
 

still time for someone in the metro to get to double digits.

[sussexcountyobs]

12 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Finally at nearly 4 PM the first sustained steady rain has made it to my end of Sullivan County.

Yea. Basically been a non event rainy day here since about 9am. We only got maybe 2-2.5" of rain since yesterday evening. 

[nycwinter]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Yea. Basically been a non event rainy day here since about 9am. We only got maybe 2-2.5" of rain since yesterday evening. 

how often do you get 2.25 inches of rain not often...

[Snowlover11]

pouring here in yonkers.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

how often do you get 2.25 inches of rain not often...

It happens quite often with summer time thunderstorms through the years. Granted there has been zero thunderstorms here since last evening. 

[uncle W]

13 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

if we can get another inch or 2 we will i think have 2 months in a row over 10 inches in the park i wonder if that has ever happened before.

march april 1983

[LoboLeader1]

Heavy rain here, currently 71. Wind has picked up in the last hour. 3.01" in the rain bucket so far.

[mob1]

9 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Just like winter, its fun reading back through the thread of the people who are too cool to believe certain models and “there is no way we’ll see even remotely close To those totals”. 
 

still time for someone in the metro to get to double digits.

Very impressive. Models still have a ton of rain for far northern NJ tonight, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the higher totals end up coming from that area or the LHV. 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

if we can get another inch or 2 we will i think have 2 months in a row over 10 inches in the park i wonder if that has ever happened before.

It has happened once. March 1983: 10.54” and April 1983: 14.01”

[sojitodd]

2 hours ago, mob1 said:

Nothing today. Given the flat terrain and lack of rivers that flood, NYC generally only floods with very heavy rates that produce flash flooding. Hours of light to moderate rain won't do anything. 

How about now?

 

The rain just seems to be converging on NYC.  And it looks heavy too.

[SnowGoose69]

We are in that window now where you do not want to break out of this rain on LI or see things try to clear out...still have 30-35kts at 925mb which ordinarily is not really bad but with soaked ground we could see 10s of thousands of outages very quickly if we see the rain end and get some breaks.  Parents told me Merrick is now gusting 30-31kts.

[mob1]

Just now, sojitodd said:

How about now?

 

The rain just seems to be converging on NYC.  And it looks heavy too.

Don't see anything on Twitter but it's possible some areas are seeing localized flooding. Areas in NJ will probably have some river flooding soon, especially if those insane totals the HRRR depicts for tonight pan out. 

[allgame830]

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Don't see anything on Twitter but it's possible some areas are seeing localized flooding. Areas in NJ will probably have some river flooding soon, especially if those insane totals the HRRR depicts for tonight pan out. 

Plz post HRRR? 

[sojitodd]

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Don't see anything on Twitter but it's possible some areas are seeing localized flooding. Areas in NJ will probably have some river flooding soon, especially if those insane totals the HRRR depicts for tonight pan out. 

For days the NHC maps have been showing and they have been saying "isolated areas of ten plus inches"...well nobody expected any of those isolated areas to be in NYC itself!

 

 Better than wind and surge I guess.

 

And I have had to be out watering damn flowers, shrubs, etc. in the 90 degree heat today lol. 

[weathermedic]

I’m at 6.7 inches at my station in Sheepshead Bay so far.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, sojitodd said:

For days the NHC maps have been showing and they have been saying "isolated areas of ten plus inches"...well nobody expected any of those isolated areas to be in NYC itself!

 

 Better than wind and surge I guess.

 

And I have had to be out watering damn flowers, shrubs, etc. in the 90 degree heat today lol. 

 

Ultimately last night's event will result in 8-10 inch totals but most felt 3-6 was more likely prior to that.  Its always had to know where the axis of heaviest rain will be.  You know it'll be on the W side of a tropical cyclone at this latitude but it can be anywhere from the NW side to the SW side or the entire side and models typically never pin it down.  The Euro had the right idea overall today as did the high res GFS but both were too high on amounts.  The Euro had like 4 inches in Nassau County today alone and I don't think anyone quite saw that

[mob1]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Plz post HRRR? 

 

[lee59]

2.6 inches of rain here today and 1.52 last evening for a total of 4.12. Wind has finally picked up a little with gusts to about 20-25.

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We are in that window now where you do not want to break out of this rain on LI or see things try to clear out...still have 30-35kts at 925mb which ordinarily is not really bad but with soaked ground we could see 10s of thousands of outages very quickly if we see the rain end and get some breaks.  Parents told me Merrick is now gusting 30-31kts.

Yep, it’s actually getting fairly gusty in Long Beach now that the rain stopped. Go figure. 

[sojitodd]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Ultimately last night's event will result in 8-10 inch totals but most felt 3-6 was more likely prior to that.  Its always had to know where the axis of heaviest rain will be.  You know it'll be on the W side of a tropical cyclone at this latitude but it can be anywhere from the NW side to the SW side or the entire side and models typically never pin it down.  The Euro had the right idea overall today as did the high res GFS but both were too high on amounts.  The Euro had like 4 inches in Nassau County today alone and I don't think anyone quite saw that

It looked like the heaviest on the NHC site that they posted was up through central Connecticut and into Western Massachusetts. They did not have anything close to 6 inches for the NYC area. They had the six to eight areas in the fore mentioned places and then noted the "up to ten inches" in the remarks for those same areas. 

but again, better to have more rain than more surge or wind.

*this is just what the graphics on that site were showing for the last few days...so if the general public looked at it that is what they would have seen on the site.

[hooralph]

Just got in from a tropical Jebwalk on the UWS. Steady tropical downpour and you can see on radar it’s building a band over the city.

[hooralph]

[donsutherland1]

A normally quiet section of the Bronx River in Scarsdale, NY:

[justinj]

Looks pretty much over out here in middle island 

[nycemt123]

Just got a flash flood warning

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