Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[SnoSki14]

I'm in the screw zone. Some 6-8" maybe 15-20 miles to my south and now the heavy stuff is about 15-20 miles north or so.

[psv88]

Wind gust to about 30 now, starting to pick up a bit

[wdrag]

Last comments til possibly tomorrow morning,  Henri passage e of MTK made it easier to either the storm.  Winds may be a little less than advertised near the center but it isn't done quite yet (backside southwester this afternoon?) . Power outage map reflects recent upticks RI/CT, but good that our subforum doesn't have to deal.  There will always be critics.  They don't get paid to protect. It seems that the GFS/HWRF etc were best on tracking Henri, but horrendous on qpf. 

Rainfall next 18-30 hours hopefully works out less.  Seems to be a slight northward shift in modeled max axis...but still focuses in se NYS NJ/PA border.

[lee59]

New London airport in SE Ct. reporting sustained 31mph and gust to 46mph. Henri appears to be moving toward Ct. 

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Rain continuing to get heavier here in SW Suffolk as this stalled out band really means business.

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm in the screw zone. Some 6-8" maybe 15-20 miles to my south and now the heavy stuff is about 15-20 miles north or so.

About 1.5" for me

[allgame830]

That new NHC track has more of a bend to the WEST. Will be interesting to see what happens later this afternoon and evening. 

[winterwx21]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm in the screw zone. Some 6-8" maybe 15-20 miles to my south and now the heavy stuff is about 15-20 miles north or so.

Yeah only a little over an inch of rain for the northern part of our county. But at least it's still a good soaking and plenty to give everything a good watering. More to come tonight into tomorrow too, as some more bands should swing from northwest to southeast.

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah only a little over an inch of rain for the northern part of our county. But at least it's still a good soaking and plenty to give everything a good watering. More to come tonight into tomorrow too, as some more bands should swing from northwest to southeast.

That is actually incorrect. I am in the NE part of the county and I have over 2.5" of rain as a storm total so far.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, psv88 said:

No it’s not. Stop. 

No. 

as I suspected this is going to be a tropical storm at landfall and not a really strong one either.  Worst effects will be where the most rains fall.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

That is actually incorrect. I am in the NE part of the county and I have over 2.5" of rain as a storm total so far.

NJ has some of the worst effects from this storm, I saw a report of nearly 10 inches

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

where this made landfall didn't even matter because it's a mid grade TS at best, it's where all the rain is falling that really matters.  From NJ over to our region has been where this storm has really made an impact.

 

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

NJ has some of the worst effects from this storm, I saw a report of nearly 10 inches

The Monroe/Jamesburg area got hit really hard overnight. Amounts of 8-9" of rainfall in that area.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

The Monroe/Jamesburg area got hit really hard overnight. Amounts of 8-9" of rainfall in that area.

Hearing about a lot of water rescues going on in NJ and in the city.  Be safe out there!  I'm staying home.

[weatherbear5]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

Sandy was a HUGE storm with a huge wind field, this is a relatively tiny storm with a small wind field, not surprised the waves are much smaller

that stationary rain band was what I was worried about. LBI looks like it’s getting hammered

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

I never understood why building codes in Long Beach permitted slope down driveways and basements on a barrier island.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

where this made landfall didn't even matter because it's a mid grade TS at best, it's where all the rain is falling that really matters.  From NJ over to our region has been where this storm has really made an impact.

 

There might be part of Narragansett or Buzzards Bay that had a nasty surge impact but I agree. Highest wind so far seems to be 66mph at Block Island and Isaias at FRG had 78mph. I’m sure plenty of customers there will lose power and the wet ground doesn’t help for tree damage but we/they lucked out that the eye didn’t clear out and it didn’t ramp up to 110mph when it had a chance. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

Sandy was a HUGE storm with a huge wind field, this is a relatively tiny storm with a small wind field, not surprised the waves are much smaller

that stationary rain band was what I was worried about. LBI looks like it’s getting hammered

The way we measure storms has to change.  It's not just about wind speed it's also about size.  That's what truly determines how strong and devastating a storm can be- its total energy.  Doing that shows that Sandy was the strongest storm to ever hit our region.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There might be part of Narragansett or Buzzards Bay that had a nasty surge impact but I agree. Highest wind so far seems to be 66mph at Block Island and Isaias at FRG had 78mph. I’m sure plenty of customers there will lose power and the wet ground doesn’t help for tree damage but we/they lucked out that the eye didn’t clear out and it didn’t ramp up to 110mph when it had a chance. 

I think all the power outages in Rhode Island might be the worst impact there.  I love big storms and all but draw the line at power outages.  It's not fun to lose access to civilization and technology for multiple days.  And even moreso with what looks like a surge of heat coming for us.....I saw even the south shore could hit 90 on Tuesday, this isn't going to be fun and even less so without power.

 

[winterwx21]

21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

That is actually incorrect. I am in the NE part of the county and I have over 2.5" of rain as a storm total so far.

I should have said for *most* of northern Middlesex county. Yeah, I can see the higher radar estimates for the extreme northeast part of the county. But the majority of northern Middlesex county is in the 1.00" to 1.50" range. I have only about 1.30" here. A huge difference from the huge totals down in the central and southern parts of the county.

[PuraVida]

Bay Shore…isolated, but at least it’s something.

[Tatamy]

The attached photo is of the ferry dock at Cherry Grove on Fire Island.  The dock is typically at least 3’ above the mean water level.  In this shot it’s almost even with the dock.  It looks like the storm surge warnings verified.

 

[MJO812]

Just got back from Maryland 

 

Bad drive home on the turnpike

 

Heavy rain here in Brooklyn 

[weatherbear5]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The way we measure storms has to change.  It's not just about wind speed it's also about size.  That's what truly determines how strong and devastating a storm can be- its total energy.  Doing that shows that Sandy was the strongest storm to ever hit our region.

 

In the wise words of my girlfriend, “size isn’t everything”

[lee59]

Its hard to tell where the center is but it appears as though southeast and central Ct. are getting the worst. I think Henri may be heading more west than north.

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

In the wise words of my girlfriend, “size isn’t everything”

You struck gold, wb5. As always …..

[jm1220]

This band has been sitting over me for a couple hours now. Pouring. It’s like a deformation band from a nor’easter. 

[Nibor]

My friend is out on Montauk and sent me a video. 

[psv88]

Relentless rain in NW Suffolk

[ForestHillWx]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This band has been sitting over me for a couple hours now. Pouring. It’s like a deformation band from a nor’easter. 

I may be under the same band. I think it extends west toward Scranton.