Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[LibertyBell]

Is anyone staying up for the Euro? Probably not?

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is anyone staying up for the Euro? Probably not?

 

Yes

[MJO812]

Hmon shifted really west

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Hmon shifted really west

wow this was the model leading with the west trend (even before the GFS) right?

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow this was the model leading with the west trend (even before the GFS) right?

 

Yes Eastern LI at 18Z

[MJO812]

[Rtd208]

 

[MJO812]

Big west shift on HRWF

[Nibor]

HWRF landfalls over the Hamptons as Henri weakens. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big west shift on HRWF

Concerning at this point but it does show a lot of weakening before striking. It would be a mid-grade tropical storm when it reaches here. Coastal flooding would be pretty bad but not horrendous. It would be known a lot more for rain. And that would have a big impact if this slowdown/hook is real.

[jm1220]

And yes HWRF shifted west pretty substantially. Last run it was over Marthas Vineyard.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

HWRF landfalls over the Hamptons as Henri weakens. 

Was Martha's Vinyard last run

[Nibor]

Euro at 48 hrs is 992 mb compared to 1006 mb at the same time at 12z. It's also a good bit west.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Nibor said:

Euro at 48 hrs is 992 mb compared to 1006 mb at the same time at 12z. It's also a good bit west.

Euros gonna be late to the party again.

It had Fred's remnants coming much further east than the other models and was way off. 

[Nibor]

Wow, from hr 48 to hr 54 the euro goes from 992 mb to 979 mb. Also, compared to 1005 mb on the 12z run.

[SI Mailman]

Looks like it's going to hit Martha's Vineyard on the Euro.

[Nibor]

0z:

Euro ~996mb Landfall near Martha's Vineyard

GFS ~990mb Landfall near RI/MA border

UKIE ~971mb Landfall near Westhampton Beach, LI

CMC ~990mb Landfall near or just west of Martha's Vineyard

HMON ~988mb Landfall near Jones Beach, LI

HWRF ~990mb Landfall South Fork, LI/Hamptons, LI

3K NAM ~lol

[Rtd208]

I am  liking an E. LI landfall with Henri as a strong tropical storm or minimum hurricane. 

[Rtd208]

[yoda]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the south shore of Long
Island from East Rockaway Inlet eastward to Montauk, the north
shore of Long Island from Kings Point eastward to Montauk, and from
Kings Point eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including
Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island
Inlet eastward and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward.  A
Hurricane Watch has also been issued from New Haven, Connecticut,
eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Fire Island Inlet to
East Rockaway Inlet, west of Port Jefferson Harbor, and west of New
Haven.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

[wdrag]

Am going to let this play out between NHC/NWS and ourselves. Adjusted the title at 503A today.  Not going to hammer wind yet but 'potential' exists for hurricane force gusts Sunday LI/coastal CT and so this storm should be monitored.  Model trends last 24 hours west, through the 06z/20 cycle.  Have a day!

[yoda]

[wdrag]

fwiw... we're only 60 hours out on this storm.  Impacts loom large Sunday...you don't want the NAM/further west Hurricane solutions to verify in  our subforum... would mean days-possibly weeks of power outages, no matter the flood results. So, root for east and less intense. I'm not a TC specialist but in my opinion trends need to shift weaker/further east to spare LI/CT. (also am not focusing outside our subforum). 

[ForestHillWx]

Curious about PRE and qpf on the west side. Typically not a qpf queen. 

[MJO812]

Gefs west of 0z

[hudsonvalley21]

06z NAM has it coming on land in central/western LI and spinning up into the Hudson valley 

 

[MJO812]

HWRF shifted  slightly west 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

06z NAM has it coming on land in central/western LI and spinning up into the Hudson valley 

 

NAM/UK have been consistent, this is interesting

[MJO812]

Icon is into eastern Li with heavy rain to the west

[Rjay]

Central LI