Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[David-LI]

Must be tough being a TV met and looking back at your wind graphics of 30/60 mph

[rclab]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s very disappointing to see how they  let the NYC  observation station go once the NWS left Rockefeller Center.

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Good morning BW. We can only hope that The ASOS Program Manager, Mr Ken Boutin comes through for us. As always …..

[lee59]

1 minute ago, Dan76 said:

Now we're definitely do lol

We are definitely due. Of course the indirect hits we have had, like Sandy, Isaias are as bad as a direct hit. Sandy maybe worse.

[sferic]

I am beginning to feel more confident that here in SW Nass Cnty (LYNBROOK) I might not have to switch on my backup generator since the wind threat seems it will be much less than first thought. 

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

I am beginning to feel more confident that here in SW Nass Cnty (LYNBROOK) I might not have to switch on my backup generator since the wind threat seems it will be much less than first thought. 

You are fine with respect to the wind, no need for generator today.  Yesterday that was known when 5pm advisory only had the W extent of TS winds making it to Sagitakos Pkwy & track kept shifting E too.

[Big Jims Videos]

Millstone River in Mercer County West Windsor Twp Southfield Road - we parked here on dry ground and in 45 minutes had to move - continues to rise.  

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. We can only hope that The ASOS Program Manager, Mr Ken Boutin comes through for us. As always …..

18 years and counting...don't hold your breath...

[jm1220]

It definitely is starting the bend NW now on radar. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

I am beginning to feel more confident that here in SW Nass Cnty (LYNBROOK) I might not have to switch on my backup generator since the wind threat seems it will be much less than first thought. 

We'll be fine here. High tide came and went, and it's really about a 15-20 mph breeze where I am 6 blocks from the beach, seriously. Have to watch where the rain sets up with the NW bend, where it sits will have street/basement flooding. 

[lee59]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
954 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2021

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

LOCATION                     SPEED     TIME/DATE       PROVIDER             

...CONNECTICUT...

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
USCG ACADEMY                 49 MPH    0833 AM 08/22   WXFLOW 
GROTON AIRPORT               39 MPH    0837 AM 08/22   ASOS                 

...NEW YORK...

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
BAITING HOLLOW               50 MPH    0850 AM 08/22   CWOP                 
NAPEAGUE                     48 MPH    0849 AM 08/22   WXFLOW               
SHINNECOCK                   42 MPH    0859 AM 08/22   WXFLOW
GREAT GULL ISLAND            46 MPH    0841 AM 08/22   WXFLOW               
ORIENT POINT                 38 MPH    0805 AM 08/22   CWOP                 
MECOX BAY                    38 MPH    0811 AM 08/22   WXFLOW               
SOUTHOLD                     37 MPH    0817 AM 08/22   CWOP                 
WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT          37 MPH    0836 AM 08/22   ASOS                 
STONY BROOK                  37 MPH    0838 AM 08/22   CWOP                 
MONTAUK AIRPORT              36 MPH    0800 AM 08/22   ASOS                 
SHIRLEY AIRPORT              36 MPH    0849 AM 08/22   ASOS                 
SOUTHOLD                     36 MPH    0905 AM 08/22   NYSM                 
EAST HAMPTON                 35 MPH    0855 AM 08/22   AWOS                 
ORIENT                       35 MPH    0901 AM 08/22   CWOP                 

...MARITIME STATIONS...

...CONNECTICUT...              
STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 48 MPH    0850 AM 08/22   WXFLOW               

...NEW YORK...
19 SSE EAST HAMPTON          49 MPH    0810 AM 08/22   NDBC                                               
&&

**METADATA**
:8/22/2021,0837 AM, CT, NEW

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

I am beginning to feel more confident that here in SW Nass Cnty (LYNBROOK) I might not have to switch on my backup generator since the wind threat seems it will be much less than first thought. 

 

As long as it keeps raining and stays largely overcast I see no issues.  If however the rain breaks up or slides south it could be dangerous as it might allow enough destabilizing in the lower layers to start mixing those 925 winds down.  It would not necessarily be that strong but certainly 240-260 25G35-40 would be possible and with soaked ground you'd start losing trees left and right probably under those circumstances.  I think W LI/5 boroughs are the areas to watch 2-6pm to see if that might happen.  My hunch now is the N shore of LI/Queens/Bronx is the spot to watch.   think south of there might stay more rainy and stable

[rclab]

Just now, uncle W said:

18 years and counting...don't hold your breath...

Even if I wanted to I might have difficulty. He did say, in his correspondence to me, to have patience. So what’s another 18 years. I will leave it to my very young budding Meteorologist grandson to carry the torch. I would…. but I couldn’t trust myself if I walked the perimeter of the CPK Station with it. As always .

[wdrag]

BID... pressure bottoming out and wind turning more easterly. Also s part of BID winds have decreased below 20 kt. 

[bluewave]

Due to the tropical nature of the rainfall, the E-W band along the South Shore is being underestimated a bit by the radar. Getting a heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk that is more impressive than radar indicates. 

 

[psv88]

Few wind gusts close to 20 now...rain hitting the windows, finally feels like some semblence of a storm. I would guess we gust to 30-35 in the dryslot later on

[uncle W]

I put out my rain guage for this...its older than my son and he's 31...its hard to tell because the plastic turned yellow over the years...Maybe 3" so far here...

[allgame830]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

As long as it keeps raining and stays largely overcast I see no issues.  If however the rain breaks up or slides south it could be dangerous as it might allow enough destabilizing in the lower layers to start mixing those 925 winds down.  It would not necessarily be that strong but certainly 240-260 25G35-40 would be possible and with soaked ground you'd start losing trees left and right probably under those circumstances.  I think W LI/5 boroughs are the areas to watch 2-6pm to see if that might happen.  My hunch now is the N shore of LI/Queens/Bronx is the spot to watch.   think south of there might stay more rainy and stable

Thanks for the update! How do you feel for places slightly further north... like southern part of the LHV. thanks in advance @SnowGoose69

[ForestHillWx]

23 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Millstone River in Mercer County West Windsor Twp Southfield Road - we parked here on dry ground and in 45 minutes had to move - continues to rise.  

Stay safe. That river has tendency to flash. I think Bound Brook may have problems tomorrow; the Raritan watershed is filling up. 

[Cfa]

0.99” so far. Nothing heavy. Boring.

[nycsnow]

Is it moving west? Lol

[tek1972]

This area of clearing somes to be moving west northwest
Is it possible Montauk sees some blue skies late today?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[wdrag]

46 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Thanks Walt 

us inland folks could have some serious flooding issues here later.

Stretching FGEN rain now evident wow from LI through I78-I80 region into ne PA.  When this system stalls for 6-12 hours, efficient 1.8" PW should yield quite a bit.  Not checking amounts too much til 5P.  I'm not studying this enough to pinpoint but the radar tells the story as moisture - rain rolls west from CT/LI into the qstry stretch zone of NNJ.

[justinj]

A few gusts to about 25 here. Heavy rain earlier a light rain now. We got lucky 

[Big Jims Videos]

4 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Stay safe. That river has tendency to flash. I think Bound Brook may have problems tomorrow; the Raritan watershed is filling up. 

NWS MT HOLLY tweeted me said millstone expected to crest at 2 pm.  That's a lot of time yet to rise unfortunately.  

[Rtd208]

On the southern edge of the heaviest rain over NNJ. Currently getting light to moderate rain. 

[Cfa]

I want to scream.

[donsutherland1]

With 0.39” rainfall through 11 am, Summer 2021 has become only the 10th on record to record 20” or more of rain in New York City.

[winterwx21]

Obviously there were huge rain totals down in central and southern Middlesex County, but much lower amounts up here in extreme northern Middlesex County. I picked up 1.30" so far here.

[wdrag]

IMO, Henri passed WEST of BID, by not too far, maybe a couple miles?  Max wind at BID was about 48KTS (~55 MPH),   but I saw 68 MPH  (59kts) on the BID wx underground sensor.

 

 

[bluewave]

Rain continuing to get heavier here in SW Suffolk as this stalled out band really means business.