Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, etudiant said:

The rain band that impacted NYC and NJ last night sort of reached way out from the storm.

It seemed unusual, but it is still surprising that the models did not recognize the precipitation potential. Wonder what lessons will be learned from this.  

Even currently hrrr has nyc not getting much rain today just look at the radar it’s loaded 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Even currently hrrr has nyc not getting much rain today just look at the radar it’s loaded 

 

Yeah I would say til 21Z there could be solid rains NYC east and even NRN NJ.  I think though that most places won't exactly see tons of rain based on radar though...some pockets will pull off 3-4-5 inches though

[wdrag]

WXunderground.  52-56 MPH on BID.  will add graphic soon.  Also 44017 s of MTK gusts 43 kt and increasing.  Mesonet gusts e LI are getting into the mid 30s now.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

WXunderground.  52-56 MPH on BID.  will add graphic soon.  Also 44017 s of MTK gusts 43 kt and increasing.  Mesonet gusts e LI are getting into the mid 30s now.

 

Too bad the KBID ASOS went down hours  ago

[Tatamy]

Just now, wdrag said:

WXunderground.  52-56 MPH on BID.  will add graphic soon.  Also 44017 s of MTK gusts 43 kt and increasing.  Mesonet gusts e LI are getting into the mid 30s now.

Just reached 61 mph at BID.  

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The best part is the TAFs...60kts at ISP and 44kts at JFK.  My hunch is there is some sort of agreement to appease NHC for the warnings because 925 winds do not support anything remotely near that.

 

 

 

We will know by 11-1pm haha

 

That’s when this is supposed to crank that high

[wdrag]

Max gusts BID now 55-61MPH

[MJO812]

Going back to NY from Maryland

 

Should be a fun drive lol

[LHSnow]

We have been sustained 35 to 40 mph with our highest gust of 49 mph so far.  I am on the south side of Peconic Bay.

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Going back to NY from Maryland

 

Should be a fun drive lol

Ant when are you leaving today ? My buddy is in Delaware and just called me I told him to stay by his son til tomorrow because he has to head to Long Island and I see the Belt Parkway is under water in spots and Im sure the Cross Island is no bargain,,,anyone else chime in let me know your thoughts my advice was stay til tomorrow

[uofmiami]

 

[LHSnow]

Here is a link to the station.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYSOUTH189?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

[Hc7]

Looks like those of us in central/towards the south shore of Nassau really lucked out big time, didnt get much rain last night despite the huge totals not too far away in the queens/brooklyn/hoboken area and seems like were also going to be perfectly situated to miss most of the worst parts of Henri outside of some decent precipitation and a little wind over the next 24+ hours. Despite all that im still not confident in terms of being spared outages, ya never know with this power grid and the incompetency that is PSEG.

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, etudiant said:

The rain band that impacted NYC and NJ last night sort of reached way out from the storm.

It seemed unusual, but it is still surprising that the models did not recognize the precipitation potential. Wonder what lessons will be learned from this.  

The HREF showed the potential but the axis of heaviest rainfall was too far south. 

https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=850&yr=2021

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0850
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Areas affected...South-Central New Jersey...Far Southeastern
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 212200Z - 220400Z

Summary...An axis of very heavy rainfall is expected to develop
with 2-3+"/hr rates leading to some totals of 3-6 inches.
Localized flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...As Hurricane Henri moves northward late this
afternoon and evening, an axis of very heavy rainfall is expected
to develop across portions of south-central New Jersey and far
southeastern Pennsylvania. Strong low-level moisture transport
from the east (via Henri) is leading to precipitable water values
building to 2.1 to 2.3 inches, while an upper-level trough axis
and associated jet streak (right entrance region) will provide
enhanced lift aloft. This banded feature will likely initiate with
a NNW to SSE orientation, gradually pivoting counter-clockwise
(from the WNW to ESE) towards midnight (local). The nearly
stationary nature of the heavy rain axis will allow for repeating
of very efficient rates (2-3+"/hr) as strong moisture transport
and upper-level lift allow SB CAPE to remain elevated around
1000-1500 J/kg.

Hi-res CAM guidance (12z HREF and more recent HRRR runs) have been
consistent in painting a localized swath of 3-6 inches of rainfall
from near Atlantic City, NJ to the Philadelphia, PA metropolitan
area through midnight local. The 12z HREF 40km neighborhood
probabilities depict a greater than 30% chance of 3" exceedance
over 3 hours and a greater than 20% chance of 5" exceedance over
12 hours (ending 06z). In addition, the HRRR has been very
consistent run-to-run producing a swath of 2-6 inches. Given this
guidance and the overall synoptic and mesoscale setup, localized
flash flooding is considered likely (with more sensitive urbanized
areas of the greatest concern).

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Hc7 said:

Looks like those of us in central/towards the south shore of Nassau really lucked out big time, didnt get much rain last night despite the huge totals not too far away in the queens/brooklyn/hoboken area and seems like were also going to be perfectly situated to miss most of the worst parts of Henri outside of some decent precipitation and a little wind over the next 24+ hours. Despite all that im still not confident in terms of being spared outages, ya never know with this power grid and the incompetency that is PSEG.

 

They are actually working through the storm because winds just are not strong enough.  There's been several big outages 1-3K out on the E End and they've repaired them within an hour.  I doubt LI gets more than 20-30K outages at this rate which means even if you somehow go out you're back probably by tomorrow at worst

[Rjay]

The hi res models don't even give LI much rain today.   The ukie/euro and even the gfs will likely be way too high with their totals.  

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The hi res models don't even give LI much rain today.   The ukie/euro and even the gfs will likely be way too high with their totals.  

 

Yeah I am guessing PW values are not as good because my parents place in Merrick was under pretty dark echoes earlier and got very little rain.  Last night under similar DBZs the totals were higher.  I think it rains steadily til 4-5pm but not sure how much falls

[wdrag]

39 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Too bad the KBID ASOS went down hours  ago

Operational since about 850AM.  Wind gusts close to the wx underground. 

[wdrag]

43 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Just reached 61 mph at BID.  

at least 63 MPH recently. coming up. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.97" of rain so far today.

Storm total so far 2.37"

[BombsAway1288]

15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

They are actually working through the storm because winds just are not strong enough.  There's been several big outages 1-3K out on the E End and they've repaired them within an hour.  I doubt LI gets more than 20-30K outages at this rate which means even if you somehow go out you're back probably by tomorrow at worst

Probably correct with the track shifting east as much as it did from yesterday morning. 

TS winds are only what? 30 mile radius? And even then it’s inconsistent gusts. 

LI was spared (wind wise) outside of the twin forks and even there it’s less cause of the east shift. 

Like many, including myself have been saying, the story with this storm is the freshwater flooding and tidal flooding 

[SnowGoose69]

They are definitely not going to finish this golf tournament over in ERN NJ tomorrow....the axis of rain will likely sit in that area all day

[nycsnow]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They are definitely not going to finish this golf tournament over in ERN NJ tomorrow....the axis of rain will likely sit in that area all day

Pouring in Staten Island again. Brooklyn getting crushed again as well

[Birds~69]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They are definitely not going to finish this golf tournament over in ERN NJ tomorrow....the axis of rain will likely sit in that area all day

Heard this morning they added "Monday or Tuesday" so they're aware it may be a mess.

Back to weather...

[doncat]

I don't know if this was brought up but....knyc setting an hourly rain record ? 1.95"... The record was that low? I received 2.20" last night in about 50 minutes.

[psv88]

Per my point and click hourly forecast I should be gusting to 50 right now. We haven’t gusted above 10

[nycsnow]

None of the models had the rain coming into nyc like this even today 

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, doncat said:

I don't know if this was brought up but....knyc setting an hourly rain record ? 1.95"... The record was that low? I received 2.20" last night in about 50 minutes.

I'm not surprised it's so low.  They consistently get snow reports wrong and have a temperature sensor in the jungle.  They probably hang an umbrella over their rain gauge.  

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Per my point and click hourly forecast I should be gusting to 50 right now. We haven’t gusted above 10

Gusted to 20mph here. 24mph at ISP lol 

[weathermedic]

Up to 5.3 inches here. 2.34 of which fell since midnight (the bulk of that between midnight and 2am)