Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, weathermedic said:

As of 12:49 AM this is an excerpt from the NYC local hurricane statement:

 

* STORM INFORMATION:

    - ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITYNY OR ABOUT 180 

      MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT NY

    - 38.6N 71.0W

    - STORM INTENSITY 75 MPH

    - MOVEMENT NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH

Just west of due north seems about right

[Santa Claus]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Like you said, the models are clearly struggling with this inverted trough.  I have no idea what to expect for your area.  So my advice is to watch the radar and expect some rain lol.  

for a man whose avatar is showing his ass, you are keeping your boldest predictions under cover 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

for a man whose avatar is showing his ass, you are keeping your boldest predictions under cover 

What's over SI is coming your way 

[Rjay]

12 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

As of 12:49 AM this is an excerpt from the NYC local hurricane statement:

 

* STORM INFORMATION:

    - ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITYNY OR ABOUT 180 

      MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MONTAUK POINT NY

    - 38.6N 71.0W

    - STORM INTENSITY 75 MPH

    - MOVEMENT NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH

Has to be from the 11pm advisory.  They just added NYC to it.  The NHC 11pm advisory said north (355 degrees) at 21mph and that it was 180 miles sse of Montauk Point

[wehavemoves]

Seeing wave heights increase toward 10'  way east of the storm   https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44066

[Santa Claus]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

What's over SI is coming your way 

our* way  

unless you're on vacation somewhere lol

p.s. Rjay i saw that weenie and i must say how dare you

[I_know_nothing]

I appreciate all the info provided here. Been following for last 5 hrs. I’m in Deer Park (W Suffolk) and so far no rain for last 2 hrs+. Winds seem to be picking up but just some overcast. 

[NorthShoreWx]

12 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Wake me up when the next 12” in 90 minutes blizzard happens.

Do you really want me to interrupt that dream?

[Santa Claus]

2 minutes ago, I_know_nothing said:

I appreciate all the info provided here.

yes.

this is a great forum and as usual everyone in the thread is doing a great job.  i appreciate all of the opinions and reports on local conditions.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

EURO into the CT/Ri border. Looks like we got a consensus at last.

Lots of rain right thru Monday morning 

[Rtd208]

Absolutely pouring here with thunder and lightning. 

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, I_know_nothing said:

I appreciate all the info provided here. Been following for last 5 hrs. I’m in Deer Park (W Suffolk) and so far no rain for last 2 hrs+. Winds seem to be picking up but just some overcast. 

Decent breeze in Long Beach but peaceful otherwise. Had a literally 5 second long heavy shower a little bit ago. This will be known for rain for this sub forum other than maybe the far eastern posters. 

[jm1220]

Big rain still to come on the Euro. For most 4”+. Essentially a 2/25/10 scenario from the hook west, interaction with the ULL and slowed down movement. If that hook really happens someone will get crushed just SW of it. 
 

4.45” Central Park so far. 

[doncat]

Yeah just had a torrential downpour with over 2" falling.

[LawdogGRNJ]

Amazing.  Every sizeable burst of convection is put on the express West to Norther NJ.

Guessing the west hook models where half right.  The core may go north but the convection is streaming WNW

Next wave due in about an hour or so.

[wehavemoves]

All the short range models look impressive with the rain bands.  Left side of this storm will outproduce rain expectations and the surge IMHO. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw2&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2021082200&fh=14

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021082200&fh=21

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021082200&fh=12

 

[tmagan]

Central Park is currently the twelfth wettest summer all time so far. By the end of Monday, it might be second all time.

[doncat]

2.40" since midnight w shore si.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.81" of rain so far today.

Storm total so far 2.21"

[Euripides]

I really need to get a rain gauge to have amounts for South Old Bridge in Middlesex County.

The air outside smells like I am right on the beach right now.

[SRRTA22]

This is special

[Euripides]

Yes and have been saving screenshots and radar loops.

[donsutherland1]

000
NOUS41 KOKX 220615
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-221815-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
215 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...Latest Rainfall Reports Through 2AM...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...New Jersey...

...Bergen County...
Hasbrouck Heights            3.05 in   0109 AM 08/22   CWOP
Teterboro Airport            2.40 in   0106 AM 08/22   ASOS
Lodi                         2.16 in   1245 AM 08/22   IFLOWS
Little Ferry                 1.93 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
Leonia                       1.52 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
Tenafly                      1.39 in   1256 AM 08/22   CWOP
Bogota                       1.33 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
New Milford                  1.19 in   0105 AM 08/22   AWS
Fair Lawn                    1.13 in   0110 AM 08/22   CWOP

...Essex County...
0.6 SW Caldwell              2.48 in   1245 AM 08/22   IFLOWS
West Orange                  2.18 in   0104 AM 08/22   CWOP
Montclair                    2.15 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
West Caldwell                2.13 in   0105 AM 08/22   CWOP
Caldwell                     1.97 in   0100 AM 08/22   ASOS
Fairfield                    1.78 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
Bloomfield                   1.78 in   0105 AM 08/22   CWOP
Maplewood                    1.20 in   0100 AM 08/22   IFLOWS
Livingston                   1.17 in   0102 AM 08/22   CWOP

...Hudson County...
Jersey City                  3.64 in   0109 AM 08/22   AWS
1 ENE Jersey City            3.43 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
1 SW Jersey City             3.20 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
1 W Hoboken                  3.05 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
Harrison                     2.91 in   1100 PM 08/21   COOP
Secaucus                     2.85 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
Hoboken                      2.71 in   0107 AM 08/22   CWOP
Weehawken                    2.54 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
Kearny                       2.28 in   0110 AM 08/22   CWOP
Kearny                       2.14 in   0105 AM 08/22   CWOP
1 W Hoboken                  2.03 in   1110 PM 08/21   AWS
Bayonne                      1.15 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
Harrison                     1.07 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS

...Passaic County...
Passaic                      3.19 in   0102 AM 08/22   CWOP
Clifton                      2.87 in   0105 AM 08/22   AWS
0.8 E West Paterson          1.92 in   1245 AM 08/22   HADS
0.9 S Wayne                  1.76 in   1245 AM 08/22   IFLOWS

...Union County...
Newark Airport               1.45 in   0115 AM 08/22   ASOS

...New York...

...Bronx County...
1 ENE East Tremont           2.66 in   1130 PM 08/21   Trained Spotter
Harlem                       1.24 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS

...Kings County...
Brooklyn                     6.32 in   0105 AM 08/22   CWOP
Prospect Park                5.24 in   0105 AM 08/22   AWS
1 ESE Battery Park           5.23 in   0150 AM 08/22   Mesonet
South Slope                  5.04 in   0106 AM 08/22   CWOP
Sheepshead Bay               4.41 in   0101 AM 08/22   CWOP
1 SSW Flatbush               4.32 in   0150 AM 08/22   Mesonet
Flatbush                     4.11 in   0150 AM 08/22   Mesonet
1 E Crown Heights            4.07 in   0151 AM 08/22   Mesonet
Brooklyn College             4.06 in   0110 AM 08/22   NYSM
2 NE Coney Island            3.75 in   1245 AM 08/22   Trained Spotter

...Nassau County...
Great Neck                   2.62 in   1106 PM 08/21   CWOP
Thomaston                    2.33 in   1109 PM 08/21   AWS
Mineola                      2.04 in   1110 PM 08/21   AWS
Carle Place                  1.79 in   1110 PM 08/21   CWOP
Levittown                    1.77 in   1100 PM 08/21   CWOP
Massapequa Park              1.57 in   1101 PM 08/21   CWOP
East Rockaway                1.56 in   1100 PM 08/21   CWOP
Wantagh                      1.54 in   1110 PM 08/21   NYSM
Hewlett                      1.44 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
Valley Stream                1.24 in   1106 PM 08/21   CWOP
East Hills                   1.19 in   1110 PM 08/21   AWS
Muttontown                   1.14 in   1105 PM 08/21   CWOP
North Massapequa             1.09 in   1105 PM 08/21   CWOP

...New York County...
Midtown Manhattan            4.73 in   0105 AM 08/22   AWS
Central Park                 4.45 in   0115 AM 08/22   ASOS
Battery Park                 4.35 in   0110 AM 08/22   AWS
2 WNW Greenpoint             4.24 in   0149 AM 08/22   Mesonet
1 E Midtown Manhattan        3.89 in   0137 AM 08/22   Mesonet
Greenwich Village            3.87 in   0135 AM 08/22   Mesonet
1 E Greenwich Village        3.76 in   0137 AM 08/22   Mesonet
Manhattan                    3.11 in   0102 AM 08/22   CWOP
Washington Heights           1.51 in   0105 AM 08/22   AWS

...Queens County...
1 WSW Lake Success           3.39 in   1155 PM 08/21   Trained Spotter
2 SE Midtown Manhattan       3.20 in   0138 AM 08/22   Mesonet
NYC/JFK Airport              2.14 in   0115 AM 08/22   ASOS
Kew Garden Hills             1.62 in   0110 AM 08/22   NYSM
Bellerose                    1.47 in   0101 AM 08/22   CWOP
Beechhurst                   1.41 in   0107 AM 08/22   CWOP
NYC/La Guardia               1.18 in   1251 AM 08/22   ASOS

...Maritime Stations...
Manhattan Dwntwn             2.25 in   1256 AM 08/22   AWOS
City Island                  2.06 in   0100 AM 08/22   CWOP
&&

[SRRTA22]

Speechless at that BK number

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

4 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Speechless at that BK number

That is crzy 

[wehavemoves]

[wxallannj]

Break in the rain now but more to come    2.33"  yesterday   .56"  so far today,    The majority of the rain fell between 9:30 pm and 12:30 a.m.

[the_other_guy]

Eastern track guys/gals/models were correct.

 

That eye never touches LI

[Hc7]

23 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Eastern track guys/gals/models were correct.

 

That eye never touches LI

I dunno why you say that as if the eye is making landfall right now, its still roughly 100+ miles out to sea and still has somewhat of a NNW heading, theres still at least 4-5 more hours for it to continue drifting and the eye can still totally clip the eastern part of the Island. Either way its pretty much irrelevant whether the eye barely misses the island by a mile completely or whether it landfalls 10 miles into the east end, the outcome and impact for a majority of the island will be nearly the exact same. Henri is still going to cause widespread, significant problems for the area. How far west it drifted had much more of an impact on the CT/Mass/RI area than it did LI.

[EasternLI]

Have been thinking LF somewhere very near CT/RI boarder since yesterday morning. Seems on track to me, give or take. Boatload of rain on the menu here today I think.