Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[weathermedic]

Picked up .75 inches so far here at my station. Still pouring.

[NJwx85]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Yeah I said a few pages back gfs had 0.5 for me entire storm lol

The GFS is very poor with East Coast Hurricanes. It had Sandy landfalling into ME the day before and it did poorly with some more recent ones too.

[nycsnow]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

The GFS is very poor with East Coast Hurricanes. It had Sandy landfalling into ME the day before and it did poorly with some more recent ones too.

Seems like a lot of models are struggling… gonna come down to good ol nowcast also curious to see if wind field expands like euro had before. Won’t take much wind nyc east to do some tree damage with all this pre

[jm1220]

Euro still has over 3” of rain for most of us. It’ll be surprising if it’s that compact as the GFS when it gets here. 

[TheManWithNoFace]

Is a stronger storm a more compact storm? Does this brief strengthening cut into rain totals across central/southern NJ tonight?

[USCG RS]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I haven’t seen anything out of the 18z suite that handled the PRE correctly. Even the latest HRRR busted badly.

Yeah... To me, I wouldn't shift east tbh (but we all know that already lol) 

[nycsnow]

Marine Weather Statement

Marine Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
750 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

ANZ338-355-220045-
750 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for the following areas...

  Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM...

  New York Harbor...

At 749 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a thunderstorm, capable of
producing winds to around 30 knots and lightning. This thunderstorm
was located near Entrance to New York Harbor, moving north at 15
knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners can expect gusty winds to around 30 knots, locally higher
waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor
immediately until this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 7425 4056 7413 4059 7409 4067 7413
      4073 7404 4071 7398 4062 7402 4059 7397
      4064 7393 4067 7382 4061 7375 4065 7370
      4064 7358 4047 7359 4035 7383 4043 7397
      4048 7401 4048 7402 4040 7398 4049 7429

$$

MW

[crossbowftw3]

Go east, young man

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Go east, young man

Good. Drop the warnings 

[nycsnow]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Good. Drop the warnings 

They’re not dropping warnings off of spaghetti plots lol

[Rmine1]

Just now, nycsnow said:

They’re not dropping warnings off of spaghetti plots lol

I know. But looking more likely that LI is spared the worst 

[donsutherland1]

During the past hour, Central Park picked up 0.52” of rain. That exceeds the 48-hour forecast total on the 18z GFS.

[allgame830]

14 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

I know. But looking more likely that LI is spared the worst 

Worst with winds maybe yes but some serious rain totals are an absolute certainty for all the tri state area... I think ALOT of people are forgetting that! 

[wdrag]

PRE:?

I don't think there is much support for a pre. Instead the driver is the PW axis, convergence in the flow.  To me this storm looks to be a major problem--especially since so much se flow aloft already. The combined power outages, and 2 to as much as 10" of rain by Tue in much of the forum (least should be extreme e LI?).  Thinking areas with road closures due to flooding, trees down. Power outages very-very inconvenient, esp Tue-Fri where-ever they continue when the HI rises into the 90s. That's when I might bend the rules and issue heat advisories for lower than normal criteria, presuming 1/4 of the area is still without power mid and late week (the power outage coverage is somewhat uncertain). I wouldn't rule out power outages in se NYS and nw NJ, though the focus is CT/LI.  Finally, if the 00z/21 HPCHREF continues the 10-12" 48 hour max near i78 extreme w NJ, ne PA, then that will become the focus area for max rainfall as it probably pounds in pockets of NNJ, ne PA Sunday night due to FGEN on w-sw side of the low level center.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

I know. But looking more likely that LI is spared the worst 

Not at all

[Snowlover11]

Correct me if wrong but i dont remember any model throwing this much rain out already. already FFW for parts of NYC

[MJO812]

People are in panic mode right now

 

Supermarkets are packed and gas stations are insane and some are without gas.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Correct me if wrong but i dont remember any model throwing this much rain out already. already FFW for parts of NYC

Gfs already failed

[psv88]

Not the first time the GfS was wrong before a storm even started 

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People are in panic mode right now

 

Supermarkets are packed and gas stations are insane and some are without gas.

Not in Westchester. I was just out for a leisurely dinner. Everything seemed fairly normal

[nycwinter]

already .52   of rain in the park.

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Correct me if wrong but i dont remember any model throwing this much rain out already. already FFW for parts of NYC

This rain should end before 11pm.

kind of got into a sticky territory because there’s going to be an hours long gap

[allgame830]

11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Correct me if wrong but i dont remember any model throwing this much rain out already. already FFW for parts of NYC

You are correct . Got the feeling most models are underestimating the amount of rain especially considering the slow movement once it makes landfall. 

[Hc7]

Seems like the LL high to the SE of the storm is tugging it a bit more east atm, but at the same time Henri is finally starting to develop a more formidable eye wall and finally acting like a storm that is over 30 degree Celsius waters and still has some more time over them to strengthen. Latest drop recorded peak winds of a little under 100mph as well, so I imagine it will be a battle of how much it strengthens and how strong that LL high to the SE tugs it in terms of where exactly it tracks to. Wouldnt completely rule out a LI landfall yet, but at least the models who forecasted it going as far west as NYC can be thrown out at this point, think the absolute furthest west it can get at this point is maybe a western/central suffolk landfall although I think it may be more likely that it landfalls eastern LI before moving into CT/NE. I could be wrong though, still has some time to decide where its going and im personally still closely watching from central/south Nassau.

[Sn0waddict]

HRRR finally came around and now makes landfall on the CT/RI border.

[RippleEffect]

Pouring here in the city. Are we even supposed to get this rain!

[Hc7]

Just now, RippleEffect said:

Pouring here in the city. Are we even supposed to get this rain!

Yes, but its not from Henri.

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, Hc7 said:

Seems like the LL high to the SE of the storm is tugging it a bit more east atm, but at the same time Henri is finally starting to develop a more formidable eye wall and finally acting like a storm that is over 30 degree Celsius waters and still has some more time over them to strengthen. Latest drop recorded peak winds of a little under 100mph as well, so I imagine it will be a battle of how much it strengthens and how strong that LL high to the SE tugs it in terms of where exactly it tracks to. Wouldnt completely rule out a LI landfall yet, but at least the models who forecasted it going as far west as NYC can be thrown out at this point, think the absolute furthest west it can get at this point is maybe a western/central suffolk landfall although I think it may be more likely that it landfalls eastern LI before moving into CT/NE. I could be wrong though, still has some time to decide where its going and im personally still closely watching from central/south Nassau.

It’s not over 30c water

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It’s not over 30c water

It’ll weaken pretty fast once it’s north of the Gulf Stream. Models mostly have it making landfall as a 50-60mph TS. There’s no mechanism to keep it going over colder water like Sandy had. This’ll be mostly known for rain except a narrow area east of the center and near water. 

[crossbowftw3]

The current feel outside is certainly playing the part of incoming TC. Not liking how things are looking with rain potential now—first IVT rains pushing in.