Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[Rtd208]

Out to dinner with friends in the Atlantic Highlands in Monmouth County. Pouring here with thunder and lightning. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Absolutely beautiful out right now. Calm with patches of blue sky. 75°

[nycsnow]

Can’t be gfs said only 0.5 for me

Advisory
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

NJC013-017-039-NYC005-047-059-061-081-085-220100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0094.210821T2336Z-210822T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Essex NJ-Hudson NJ-Union NJ-Bronx NY-Kings (Brooklyn) NY-Nassau NY-
New York (Manhattan) NY-Queens NY-Richmond (Staten Island) NY-
736 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas for...
  Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Union County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Bronx County in southeastern New York...
  Kings (Brooklyn) County in southeastern New York...
  Western Nassau County in southeastern New York...
  New York (Manhattan) County in southeastern New York...
  Queens County in southeastern New York...
  Richmond (Staten Island) County in southeastern New York...

* Until 900 PM EDT.

* At 736 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. Overflowing poor drainage areas will cause minor
  flooding in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Newark, Jersey City, Jamaica, Elizabeth, Flatbush, Flushing,
  Bayonne, Mott Haven, Levittown, Hoboken, Plainfield, Bloomfield,
  Freeport, Linden, Valley Stream, Long Beach, Orange, Coney Island,
  Garden City and Massapequa.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the
area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4066 7440 4067 7446 4074 7437 4081 7435
      4081 7414 4076 7409 4080 7408 4084 7396
      4074 7344 4063 7340 4060 7341 4053 7394
      4060 7403 4052 7412 4049 7426 4056 7422
      4059 7420 4060 7446

$$

[SRRTA22]

Theres some possible waterspout action with those storms off shore

[nycsnow]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a special marine warning here 

[nycsnow]

Water spout ? Radar scope looks like it 

[nycsnow]

Rotation is heading right toward Brooklyn and Staten Island 

[Franklin0529]

10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Out to dinner with friends in the Atlantic Highlands in Monmouth County. Pouring here with thunder and lightning. 

Yup. Im 3 miles down the road. Nasty 

[nycsnow]

 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

 

"calmly" 

[psv88]

This reminds me of a typical winter storm where the heaviest snow bands set up in NE NJ as usual...while the island sucks subsidence

[nycsnow]

Just now, psv88 said:

This reminds me of a typical winter storm where the heaviest snow bands set up in NE NJ as usual...while the island sucks subsidence

I really think we might have some nice rotation just south of Brooklyn… surprised no special marine warning 

[Rmine1]

Yup. Looks like some gusty winds and rain for us. I’m due south of you. Not expecting anything too serious 

[SRRTA22]

Just now, nycsnow said:

I really think we might have some nice rotation just south of Brooklyn… surprised no special marine warning 

I think it was elevated as i didnt see much on TJFK 

Also died out it looks like

[Rmine1]

8 pm update looks slightly further east. 
 

[uncle W]

there was a little lightning and thunder east of me which is south of Brooklyn a few minutes ago...

[rclab]

Moderate rain and a few claps of thunder in the last half hour over my Cobble Hill postage stamp. As always …..

[sussexcountyobs]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This reminds me of a typical winter storm where the heaviest snow bands set up in NE NJ as usual...while the island sucks subsidence

Yup. This will become subtropical and be absorbed by the ULL. Heaviest precip will be well north and west than progged. Think winter Nor'Easter. 

[MJO812]

I'm in Maryland  now with my fiancee . She's worried that we will get stuck in the hurricane  because she heard  from the news that it's going to be bad. Debasio also said it's going to be bad

Media sucks

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yup. This will become subtropical and be absorbed by the ULL. Heaviest precip will be well north and west than progged. Think winter Nor'Easter. 

Hoping that PRE does not make it here to Sullivan tonight because that’s just asking for trouble tomorrow. 

[MJO812]

Supermarkets  are packed in Brooklyn because of the impending  storm.

 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm in Maryland  now with my fiancee . She's worried that we will get stuck in the hurricane  because she heard  from the news that it's going to be bad. Debasio also said it's going to be bad

Media sucks

Warnings were issued, what do you expect?

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Warnings were issued, what do you expect?

And they def should have been issued.  It's ok to backtrack on some of them at this point imo but I understand why they likely won't.  

[Snowlover11]

Just started raining here in yonkers, moderately too.

[Gravity Wave]

Getting some thunder and lightning with this initial band coming off the ocean.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

She looks ugly on IR but the core is much better defined.

TCs actually strengthen the most at night, could be some surprises in store by tomorrow morning

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And they def should have been issued.  It's ok to backtrack on some of them at this point imo but I understand why they likely won't.  

but how do we even know the models are correct? our locals are saying that slight errors could make a big difference in track and local effects

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And they def should have been issued.  It's ok to backtrack on some of them at this point imo but I understand why they likely won't.  

Yeah because if they backtrack and the models end up being wrong? a 50 mile error is small in geographic terms but huge in terms of population affected

 

[NJwx85]

I haven’t seen anything out of the 18z suite that handled the PRE correctly. Even the latest HRRR busted badly.

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I haven’t seen anything out of the 18z suite that handled the PRE correctly. Even the latest HRRR busted badly.

Yeah I said a few pages back gfs had 0.5 for me entire storm lol