Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I've always wanted to ask here what folks consider to be central Suffolk.  I think people generally consider Central Suffolk to be roughly Smithtown to Manorville.  If you take a ruler out though and measure from the Nassau/Suffolk border to Montauk,  isn't Central Suffolk really more like Riverhead?  I feel like the common Central Suffolk definition would be correct if there was actually a Peconic County like they wanted to create years ago..

no way is Riverhead central Suffolk.  Twin Forks needs to be separated and considered extreme eastern Suffolk.  So eastern Suffolk is just west of the Twin Forks back to about Brookhaven

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

no way is Riverhead central Suffolk.  Twin Forks needs to be separated and considered extreme eastern Suffolk.  So eastern Suffolk is just west of the Twin Forks back to about Brookhaven

Wading river/Manorville/Moriches on east is eastern Suffolk imo.  Brookhaven is central.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Euro is a worse for many compared to others bigger windfield and it’s catching onto the big rain totals. 

Figured, I don't know why so many model hog the GFS

 

[Stormlover74]

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Rjay said:

Wading river/Manorville/Moriches on east is eastern Suffolk imo.  Brookhaven is central.

Would you consider Miller Place and Mt Sinai central or eastern?

 

[nycsnow]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Figured, I don't know why so many model hog the GFS

 

Let’s see if it can continue going forward on the models. Can still be a high impact event nyc east inches of rain and wind gust 40-50 would do damage 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Figured, I don't know why so many model hog the GFS

 

I dont think anyone's been hugging any model

[Rjay]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Would you consider Miller Place and Mt Sinai central or eastern?

 

Central

[USCG RS]

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hamptons to block island imo

I'm still saying Sayville. 

[Rjay]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I dont think anyone's been hugging any model

There's no model to hug.  They're all jumping all over the place.  The most consistent model has been the Ukie even if it was 75 miles too far west in the end. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Wading river/Manorville/Moriches on east is eastern Suffolk imo.  Brookhaven is central.

I can go with drawing a line at Wading River and moving it south to the south shore and that would be a nice boundary between central and eastern.  Areas east of that line often mix even on the north shore while just west of Wading River does not.  Mt Sinai might even be Long Island's snow capital.

 

[psv88]

Western Long Island is nassau/Suffolk border west. Central LI is from nassau border to William Floyd parkway. East of there is eastern LI

[Rjay]

Just now, USCG RS said:

I'm still saying Sayville. 

That would have been my near guess yesterday (maybe a few towns further east) tbh but there's overwhelming ensemble support for a further east landfall.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Western Long Island is nassau/Suffolk border west. Central LI is from nassau border to William Floyd parkway. East of there is eastern LI

That's LI.  This was a Suffolk convo.  Anyway, let's take this to banter and not bore the people with this crap lol. 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This run definitely has a broader wind field 

this is why we love transitioning storms up here, more of an impact to more people.  I never understood why anyone likes microcanes, the large sized storms have the most impact to the most people.

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I moved from my long term stronghold in Miller Place to Smithtown and while adoring storms and would embrace whatever happens, I prefer this “hurricane” just keep away if it’s not gonna be big impact. Isaias seemed so puny last year and the storm was inland NJ or something but damage and power outrages on Long Island we’re too much. 
As said, I’ll be first to try and embrace a 1938 coming our way - but - don’t want this pesky fly to ruin things with our third world power grid. 

Which gets more snow Miller Place or Smithtown? I would expect it to be Miller Place.

 

[Cerinthe Major]

What time do you all think we should expect significant power outages to begin? I had thought it was tomorrow mid-morning but now thinking it could happen before dawn.

[Rjay]

Just now, Cerinthe Major said:

What time do you all think we should expect significant power outages to begin? I had thought it was tomorrow mid-morning but now thinking it could happen before dawn.

I don't expect significant power outages at this time in Port Washington.

[tek1972]

What time do you all think we should expect significant power outages to begin? I had thought it was tomorrow mid-morning but now thinking it could happen before dawn.

Definitely looks to be coming quicker

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[bkviking]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Which gets more snow Miller Place or Smithtown? I would expect it to be Miller Place.

 

I believe Miller Place was core of snow capital. @NorthShoreWx produced great maps showing that but I lived it. Still thing Huntington and eastwards was snow capital. 
 

Now euro shifts west again. Windshield wiper. I get it too - this is so unusual: we have a NAO block and and an approaching upper level low - but not the usual slingshot up to our area. Even Sandy moved once it hit the much stronger block. This thing with landfall and lingering NW turn followed by eventual turn NE is interesting. 

[Rtd208]

6 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

Definitely looks to be coming quicker

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Its on schedule.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I believe Miller Place was core of snow capital. @NorthShoreWx produced great maps showing that but I lived it. Still thing Huntington and eastwards was snow capital. 
 

Now euro shifts west again. Windshield wiper. I get it too - this is so unusual: we have a NAO block and and an approaching upper level low - but not the usual slingshot up to our area. Even Sandy moved once it hit the much stronger block. This thing with landfall and lingering NW turn followed by eventual turn NE is interesting. 

Yeah I loved Ed's maps I figured it would be somewhere between Mt Sinai and Shoreham with Miller Place right in between.  The closest co-op is in Mt Sinai so that's the one I'm going by.

 

[the_other_guy]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Would you consider Miller Place and Mt Sinai central or eastern?

 

theres a phycological barrier there that skews peoples thinking.

30 years ago, those areas were rural. The rural line was 112.

That isnt the case anymore. The rural line is really the William Floyd now…and it will stay there thanks to Pataki and his protected lands programs.

 

That said twin forks is its own area.

Eastern Suffolk begins east of Nicols Road imo

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I don't expect significant power outages at this time in Port Washington.

Even on the Euro which for some reason wants to go crazy now with an ET transition you only have 925s mid 30s to low 40s in that area which who knows how well it mixes down on west side of storm 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bkviking said:

I believe Miller Place was core of snow capital. @NorthShoreWx produced great maps showing that but I lived it. Still thing Huntington and eastwards was snow capital. 
 

Now euro shifts west again. Windshield wiper. I get it too - this is so unusual: we have a NAO block and and an approaching upper level low - but not the usual slingshot up to our area. Even Sandy moved once it hit the much stronger block. This thing with landfall and lingering NW turn followed by eventual turn NE is interesting. 

I'm looking for parallels in history and one that occurred to me was Hurricane Agnes, except that stalled in interior PA instead of upstate NY after making landfall here.  That was  a minimal hurricane too but is much more remembered for its stall and historic flooding.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Even on the Euro which for some reason wants to go crazy now with an ET transition you only have 925s mid 30s to low 40s in that area which who knows how well it mixes down on west side of storm 

ET transition is actually what makes these storms more dynamic and exciting to more people.

 

[tek1972]

Wow!
EAST!

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[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

Wow!
EAST!

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At this stage I tend to trust globals more.  That said the previous Euro run the Op was somewhat west of most ensembles.  We will see what the 12z has 

[justinj]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Would you consider Miller Place and Mt Sinai central or eastern?

 

Eastern central lol

[SnowGoose69]

One thing to remember too is wind direction is big with these storms.  Winds of 30-40 in nassau or west Suffolk from 280-350 are way less likely to cause damage than winds of 220-110 of the same speed because tree roots here are more accustomed to big winds from the W-NW than SSW-SE.  that is one good point JB often makes and is very true