Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[lee59]

Not looking well defined at this point. It has about 12-24 hours over warm water. If it doesn't intensify then, it won't get any stronger. Looks like there could be decent rains west of the storm center as there is good lift to the west of the storm.

[nycsnow]

Some clearing it looks like in the center maybe we pop an eye

[eyewall]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:24 PM, nycsnow said:

Some clearing it looks like in the center maybe we pop an eye

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NW side has improving outflow and definitely looks like a decent sized eye trying to pop on the vis:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=vis

[nycsnow]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:25 PM, eyewall said:

NW side has improving outflow and definitely looks like a decent sized eye trying to pop on the vis:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=vis

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Agreed looking better on satellite 

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:20 PM, lee59 said:

Not looking well defined at this point. It has about 12-24 hours over warm water. If it doesn't intensify then, it won't get any stronger. Looks like there could be decent rains west of the storm center as there is good lift to the west of the storm.

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To me it's looking better on visible satellite. You can see the circulation and higher cloud tops forming around the center and will be over warm water next 12-18 hours. Definitely a small core but still can do some damage especially with the heavy rains as you said. 

[USCG RS]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:25 PM, eyewall said:

NW side has improving outflow and definitely looks like a decent sized eye trying to pop on the vis:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=vis

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Now that we questioned it. It's going to explode 

[tmagan]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:25 PM, eyewall said:

NW side has improving outflow and definitely looks like a decent sized eye trying to pop on the vis:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=vis

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I think it is more of an artifact that the clouds all around it are warming more than anything else.

[coastalplainsnowman]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:16 PM, Rjay said:

I have respect for all the mets that put so much time and effort into keeping the public safe but I was just listening to Craig Allen talk live on the radio claiming the most likely landfall location according to the models is central Suffolk.  Idk, maybe he was looking at the Cras.  

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I've always wanted to ask here what folks consider to be central Suffolk.  I think people generally consider Central Suffolk to be roughly Smithtown to Manorville.  If you take a ruler out though and measure from the Nassau/Suffolk border to Montauk,  isn't Central Suffolk really more like Riverhead?  I feel like the common Central Suffolk definition would be correct if there was actually a Peconic County like they wanted to create years ago..

[bkviking]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:08 PM, guinness77 said:

I work in Huntington so I have often followed your posts. I know the winds, even after Isaias was “done,” were still ferocious even when the sun broke out about 4pm that day. So over that crap. I live on the SS, not near the water and I have noticed the NS has gotten the thunderstorms a little worse this Summer, so far. We’ve been relatively dry since mid-July (we were away week of aug 7, so I can’t attest to that). 

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I moved from my long term stronghold in Miller Place to Smithtown and while adoring storms and would embrace whatever happens, I prefer this “hurricane” just keep away if it’s not gonna be big impact. Isaias seemed so puny last year and the storm was inland NJ or something but damage and power outrages on Long Island we’re too much. 
As said, I’ll be first to try and embrace a 1938 coming our way - but - don’t want this pesky fly to ruin things with our third world power grid. 

[allgame830]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:41 PM, tmagan said:

I think it is more of an artifact that the clouds all around it are warming more than anything else.

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Well multiple Mets have said it actually looks like an eye is starting to clear. 

[Rjay]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:44 PM, coastalplainsnowman said:

I've always wanted to ask here what folks consider to be central Suffolk.  I think people generally consider Central Suffolk to be roughly Smithtown to Manorville.  If you take a ruler out though and measure from the Nassau/Suffolk border to Montauk,  isn't Central Suffolk really more like Riverhead?  I feel like the common Central Suffolk definition would be correct if there was actually a Peconic County like they wanted to create years ago..

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Give or take

 

[tmagan]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:51 PM, allgame830 said:

Well multiple Mets have said it actually looks like an eye is starting to clear. 

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Looking at the IR, it looks like a classic sheared system, not one where you expect a classic eye, in fact 12Z SHIPS guidance indicates shear to increase over the system in a few hours.

[Rjay]

[Rjay]

[allgame830]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:57 PM, Rjay said:

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That looks quite a west from last run no???

[Roger Smith]

Have been following this with interest, my hunch is that it will come in further west than many expect, over western Long Island. Intensity at that point might be marginal cat-1 TS boundary. 

[Rjay]

  On 8/21/2021 at 6:01 PM, allgame830 said:

That looks quite a west from last run no???

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Last 4 runs

 

[Rjay]

This run definitely has a broader wind field 

[Rjay]

Next timestamp (last 4 runs)

 

[allgame830]

  On 8/21/2021 at 6:04 PM, Rjay said:

This run definitely has a broader wind field 

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Oh very much so... even gets decent winds into the LHV. Rains are going to be high west of the center we all know that. I still like a landfall in central Suffolk I don’t believe it will be out on the eastern tip

[NJwx85]

Typical windshield wiper affect. Models over corrected East last night and the shift back to the West has begun with the Euro. I am still thinking that the most likely landfall location is SW Suffolk.

[justinj]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:08 PM, guinness77 said:

I work in Huntington so I have often followed your posts. I know the winds, even after Isaias was “done,” were still ferocious even when the sun broke out about 4pm that day. So over that crap. I live on the SS, not near the water and I have noticed the NS has gotten the thunderstorms a little worse this Summer, so far. We’ve been relatively dry since mid-July (we were away week of aug 7, so I can’t attest to that). 

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Been relatively dry here in middle island. Storms seem to die out right after they come through stony brook

[Rjay]

  On 8/21/2021 at 6:07 PM, NJwx85 said:

Typical windshield wiper affect. Models over corrected East last night and the shift back to the West has begun with the Euro. I am still thinking that the most likely landfall location is SW Suffolk.

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Hamptons to block island imo

[Rjay]

The ensembles are really locked into that area

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Solid rainfall totals for westchester and the lower Hudson valley (4-6 inches).  

[psv88]

  On 8/21/2021 at 6:10 PM, Rjay said:

Hamptons to block island imo

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Agreed. We also need that track to keep the lights on. The most recent Euro the worst yet for Suffolk in terms of wind impacts 

[Rjay]

[Akeem the African Dream]

Structure looks pretty awful.  Can’t imagine this will have much of a core when it arrives 

[LibertyBell]

  On 8/21/2021 at 5:16 PM, Rjay said:

I have respect for all the mets that put so much time and effort into keeping the public safe but I was just listening to Craig Allen talk live on the radio claiming the most likely landfall location according to the models is central Suffolk.  Idk, maybe he was looking at the Cras.  

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wow and he's an all timer too

 

[nycsnow]

Euro is a worse for many compared to others bigger windfield and it’s catching onto the big rain totals.