Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[SnowGoose69]

UKMET might have come a bit west of 00Z but certainly nothing like 12Z yesterday.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Fail for the UKMET on this it’s looking like. It liked the far west/NYC landfalls for a while. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Heavy rain will be further west than eastern suffolk…but wind will not be issue west of riverhead 

I expect some heavy rain here but nothing extreme. 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sell the 60 mph gusts in nassau with a MTP landfall 

well tropical force gusts.....since the tropical storm windfield has a radius of 115 miles

60 mph gusts forecast for SW Nassau

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Rjay said:

I expect some heavy rain here but nothing extreme. 

 

The NAM likes the crazy sting jet tomorrow evening.  Has 25025G40KT for JFK...I just don't think that happens though unless the track comes in more into the heart of Suffolk.

[NortheastPAWx]

I don't see how NYC dodges problems from this. Remember what happened with Elsa - you don't need TS/cane winds to cause problems with some of the infrastructure. I'd be ready for flooded roads and train tracks.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Stores are bad but it’s nothing anywhere near the level of Sandy or the 1st wave of COVID, it seems people have become accustomed to these events.

Gas lines are bad right now. Cars lined up Jericho tpke. People here remember last year. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The direct impact zone will be pretty small from this. It’s not really transitioning from tropical as it gets here. It’s definitely possible it landfalls in Montauk and there’s not much happening in NYC. 

isn't heaviest rainfall 100 miles west of the center track?

also tropical storm windfield radius is 115 miles

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The NAM likes the crazy sting jet tomorrow evening.  Has 25025G40KT for JFK...I just don't think that happens though unless the track comes in more into the heart of Suffolk.

But the tropical storm windfield radius was reported to be 115 miles and it's about 100 miles between JFK and MTP

40 + gusts are easily doable

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes I actually believe that is the final solution

try the euro when it comes out dude

that GFS outcome is scientifically impossible

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

Apologies, I definitely did not mean to be confusing! I was just thinking of what people might think in my area to get blasted at 11:30 last night with warnings and then only see a rainy breezy day. I worry it will make them suspicious of similar warnings in the future. I admire the heck out of NWS and they have forgotten more then I'll ever know! It's just that alerts and public communication is a pet obsession of mine.

a rainy breezy day is basically what tropical storm conditions are.....

 

[kat5hurricane]

The writing was on the wall last night with the east trends and weaker storm for relatively minimal impact for most in Nassau on westward. 

People I know who aren't as tuned into the weather as I am are expecting an extreme storm here in Queens and western Nassau because of the Storm Surge Warning that popped up yesterday and the stores were unusually packed early this morning Better safe than sorry but they jumped the gun on this one and sent off a false alarm that this would be a serious storm in these parts.

It kind of reminds me of Winter Storm Nemo when all the Blizzard Warnings went up for most of the area when it was becoming clear that it was a Central L.I. on eastward special for the extreme impacts.

[Hc7]

Its not really surprising models are bouncing back east in their guidance tbh, many of them tend to have issues accurately forecasting storms that have had tilted or decoupled vortices, and at this point many of them had Henri looking more impressive that it actually does right now. Models can still easily shoot back west significantly over the next 24 hours. Whilst Henri doesnt look amazing right now, it does seem to be starting to get its shit together some and some hurricane force winds have been found, and it shouldnt have any issues with convection. Dont forget just how much very warm, fast moving water can help a storm get its shit together, its going to hit the Gulf Stream very soon and when it does expect it to organize quickly and strengthen fairly quickly. The good thing about it not being completely organized/stacked yet is that it will probably put a cap on how much it can strengthen when it hits that Gulf Stream, but I think it will still have plenty of time to become a very formidable, dangerous storm for a place like LI.

[Rjay]

[Rjay]

The last bunch of ukie runs

 

 

[Rjay]

The latest run is weaker and further east than last night. 

[SnoSki14]

People are underestimating the rain threat as usual.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie still wet for most

 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

People are underestimating the rain threat as usual.

The Ukie isn't 

[Cfa]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Gas lines are bad right now. Cars lined up Jericho tpke. People here remember last year. 

I got lucky on Middle Country Road yesterday, the lines were forming right after I’d pulled up.

[psv88]

Upton calling for 6.5” of rain here 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The last bunch of ukie runs

 

 

Looks like Henri is doing some housecleaning in the Atlantic lol.

Hey Henri..... you missed a spot!

 

[guinness77]

7 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

The writing was on the wall last night with the east trends and weaker storm for relatively minimal impact for most in Nassau on westward. 

People I know who aren't as tuned into the weather as I am are expecting an extreme storm here in Queens and western Nassau because of the Storm Surge Warning that popped up yesterday and the stores were unusually packed early this morning Better safe than sorry but they jumped the gun on this one and sent off a false alarm that this would be a serious storm in these parts.

It kind of reminds me of Winter Storm Nemo when all the Blizzard Warnings went up for most of the area when it was becoming clear that it was a Central L.I. on eastward special.

I think they (I assume you mean the media) jumped the gun so quickly because they were so far behind just 2 days ago and they’re now playing catch up. 
 

Being in W. suffolk I’m praying the East models play out, selfishly, because I’m sick of cleaning up broken crap and breaking down and discarding fallen trees. Frankly, a couple of inches of rain wouldn’t be the worst for my area. Most of these severe thunderstorms have missed my neighborhood. Just don’t want to deal with 60-70mph+ gusts. 

[psv88]

Just now, guinness77 said:

I think they (I assume you mean the media) jumped the gun so quickly because they were so far behind just 2 days ago and they’re now playing catch up. 
 

Being in W. suffolk I’m praying the East models play out, selfishly, because I’m sick of cleaning up broken crap and breaking down and discarding fallen trees. Frankly, a couple of inches of rain wouldn’t be the worst for my area. Most of these severe thunderstorms have missed my neighborhood. Just don’t want to deal with 60-70mph+ gusts. 

Everyone in Suffolk agrees with you. I’m ok never seeing another hurricane again. 

[Cfa]

Imagine Suffolk receiving more rain this summer from tropical cyclones than from convection. More tropical storm hours than thunderstorm hours for the year.

[guinness77]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Everyone in Suffolk agrees with you. I’m ok never seeing another hurricane again. 

I work in Huntington so I have often followed your posts. I know the winds, even after Isaias was “done,” were still ferocious even when the sun broke out about 4pm that day. So over that crap. I live on the SS, not near the water and I have noticed the NS has gotten the thunderstorms a little worse this Summer, so far. We’ve been relatively dry since mid-July (we were away week of aug 7, so I can’t attest to that). 

[CIK62]

The Creeping Death:        This will have to intensify and/or slow down to give 6".         I am cloudy,calm,  81*(75%RH),  P = 1014mb. here at 1pm.

EURO is down an inch to 3"+,   the GFS has practically nothing.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Everyone in Suffolk agrees with you. I’m ok never seeing another hurricane again. 

I'm rooting for the next blizzard.

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm rooting for the next blizzard.

Wake me up when the next 12” in 90 minutes blizzard happens.

[Rjay]

I have respect for all the mets that put so much time and effort into keeping the public safe but I was just listening to Craig Allen talk live on the radio claiming the most likely landfall location according to the models is central Suffolk.  Idk, maybe he was looking at the Cras.