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Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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forkyfork
forkyfork

i can't rule out a tucked in nyc landfall

hooralph
hooralph

Can we agree the worst local impact from this storm might be Cuomo grandstanding for one last briefing?

BxEngine
BxEngine

Since Long Island is further away from NYC than I am, and ive been told that im not part of this subforum…this storm wont be hitting this subforum, and all subsequent posts will be removed.    

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Cerinthe Major

Cerinthe Major

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This is very confusing and sounds as if the uncertainty is the only reason a warning was issued 

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Rahway
    - Linden
    - Elizabeth

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
    - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
    - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.

Apologies, I definitely did not mean to be confusing! I was just thinking of what people might think in my area to get blasted at 11:30 last night with warnings and then only see a rainy breezy day. I worry it will make them suspicious of similar warnings in the future. I admire the heck out of NWS and they have forgotten more then I'll ever know! It's just that alerts and public communication is a pet obsession of mine.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cerinthe Major said:

Apologies, I definitely did not mean to be confusing! I was just thinking of what people might think in my area to get blasted at 11:30 last night with warnings and then only see a rainy breezy day. I worry it will make them suspicious of similar warnings in the future. I admire the heck out of NWS and they have forgotten more then I'll ever know! It's just that alerts and public communication is a pet obsession of mine.

Sorry I meant the NWS wording was confusing not your post

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Sorry for a “IMBY” question but we’ve got family heading south tomorrow morning from Port Washington (north shore) to head to OBX. They’re planning on a 4a departure. Could be some bands by then but do y’all think they’ll be ok? Or recommend leaving tonight. 
 

stay safe up there!

I'd probably recommend leaving tn although they should still be alright at 4am barring as shift west in the modeling. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs rainfall. Sprinkles in the city 

 

qpf_acc.us_ne (1).png

 

The rainfall axis is real tricky.  Models do not typically handle it well...it always reverts to the W side but is it the SW side, the W side, the NW side?  The Euro has been most consistent in showing it fairly even on the W side overall while other guidance has varied between W and more into W CT and SE NY while keeping the metro and W LI drier

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JustinRP37

JustinRP37

Posted
Posted

I am shocked to see so many writing this storm off especially on the waste of time that is social media. This is going to be a very serious storm for most of CT and parts of LI. The ground is already completely saturated from Fred. I’ve been in central CT and we still have roads that had huge issues Thursday. The power companies are struggling to stay ahead for preps. 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

I am shocked to see so many writing this storm off especially on the waste of time that is social media. This is going to be a very serious storm for most of CT and parts of LI. The ground is already completely saturated from Fred. I’ve been in central CT and we still have roads that had huge issues Thursday. The power companies are struggling to stay ahead for preps. 

CT is going to have some real issues with flooding and power outages.  If the models have it right at this point, it's a total snoozer west of the Hamptons and even there I'd probably fall asleep chasing this thing.  

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I am shocked to see so many writing this storm off especially on the waste of time that is social media. This is going to be a very serious storm for most of CT and parts of LI. The ground is already completely saturated from Fred. I’ve been in central CT and we still have roads that had huge issues Thursday. The power companies are struggling to stay ahead for preps. 

This is going to be a 980s storm. They are not taking this seriously. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

CT is going to have some real issues with flooding and power outages.  If the models have it right at this point, it's a total snoozer west of the Hamptons and even there I'd probably fall asleep chasing this thing.  

I wouldn't call it a snoozer. I will be happy if we get pounder with rain.

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't call it a snoozer. I will be happy if we get pounder with rain.

Seems to be a crapshoot right now but if i were to guess the heavy rain axis sets up from eastern LI through central and western CT/Mass and into interior NY.   

That is if the models are correct with a Block Island landfall on a nnw/nw heading.  

 

**there will be other areas that see some heavy rain but I have no idea which areas get it. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Seems to be a crapshoot right now but if i were to guess the heavy rain axis sets up from eastern LI through central and western CT/Mass and into interior NY.   

That is if the models are correct with a Block Island landfall on a nnw/nw heading.  

 

**there will be other areas that see some heavy rain but I have no idea which areas get it. 

Heavy rain will be further west than eastern suffolk…but wind will not be issue west of riverhead 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

And you actually believe that rainfall depiction... smh 

The direct impact zone will be pretty small from this. It’s not really transitioning from tropical as it gets here. It’s definitely possible it landfalls in Montauk and there’s not much happening in NYC. 

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