Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, tek1972 said:

This storm also is not looking too good on satellite today. I don't see any signs of organization as it runs out of time

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Some organization should still happen (as the warmest Gulf Stream waters lay ahead) but you would be correct, time is running very thin 

[eyewall]

At this point northern NJ, NYC, western LI would see a rainy/breezy day. The real action would perhaps be along and east of the William Floyd Parkway in terms of wind.

[Rjay]

Henri is now a hurricane

[crossbowftw3]

85 MPH maximum sustained with the east trend reflected on the new cone.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Great trends today. Keep her away 

Yep seriously. Bye. 

[psv88]

28 minutes ago, justinj said:

Yup nobody wants to lose power. I’m hoping this things just shoots east. 

Funny to see all the city guys hoping for a storm. All the LI people are praying it doesn’t happen 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep seriously. Bye. 

Flooding rains still look likely.

Tons of convection just offshore. As the storm moves north, gets stronger and hooks left thats gonna affect us big time. 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We often get model convergence on the run when a tropical cyclone completes it turn to the north. The 0z runs were focused on Eastern Long Island for a landfall. Highest impacts located  right along the eventual track of Henri. This is one of the smallest tropical cyclones to impact the area.

 

So tropical storm force winds extend 115 miles from the center, wherever this storm makes landfall we can expect at least 40+ mph winds 115 miles from the center in all directions?

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

85 MPH maximum sustained with the east trend reflected on the new cone.

center point of the cone has not changed.....they are just narrowing the extremes, no landfall in NYC but no landfall on the cape either

[justinj]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Funny to see all the city guys hoping for a storm. All the LI people are praying it doesn’t happen 

I’ll be happy with an inch of rain 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, eyewall said:

At this point northern NJ, NYC, western LI would see a rainy/breezy day. The real action would perhaps be along and east of the William Floyd Parkway in terms of wind.

tropical storm force winds in western LI and NYC

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep seriously. Bye. 

I dont see any "east trend"  the center point of the cone is still somewhere between central and eastern LI like it's been for the last 24 hours

 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, eyewall said:

At this point northern NJ, NYC, western LI would see a rainy/breezy day. The real action would perhaps be along and east of the William Floyd Parkway in terms of wind.

yeah but they get very little rain so not that exciting.

Sandy wasn't that exciting with all that wind either, heavy rain is what makes a storm fun.

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Funny to see all the city guys hoping for a storm. All the LI people are praying it doesn’t happen 

On the beach in Wading River. Sandy had minimal damage for us. Even with minimal damage:

There was no power for at least a week

There was several inches of water in the basement with associated water damage

There was a sharp 6 foot drop at the bulkhead and the beach was destroyed.

 

Even Irene, Which was a nothing burger for the five boroughs… As the storm came through big branch fell off an old tree in North Flushing, right into a bedroom and killed a guy as he slept.

 

Long story short, you dont wish for a hurricane to hit your forum area

 

 

 

[Eduardo]

I feel like we’ve gotten sneaky sting jets on the back sides of these recently (i.e., Irene, Sandy, and Isaias).  Actually, IIRC, Isaias’s winds were strongest after the sun came out.  What are the chances we see something similar here, assuming Henri takes a leftward jog after coming ashore?

[coastalplainsnowman]

When you guys say 'Henri' in your mind, are you pronouncing it as 'HEN-ree' or 'on-REE'? 

I feel the latter makes this event seem much more serious.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

When you guys say 'Henri' in your mind, are you pronouncing it as 'HEN-ree' or 'on-REE'? 

I feel the latter makes this event seem much more serious.

The latter 

[MJO812]

Icon  still shows the storm into central Li

[lee59]

At this point I am expecting decent rains, probably 1-3 inches and wind gusts in the 40s at my house and probably 50s in exposed locations, like nearby airports. That is with a landfall over eastern Long Island. Of course that can change.

[nycwinter]

8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

On the beach in Wading River. Sandy had minimal damage for us. Even with minimal damage:

There was no power for at least a week

There was several inches of water in the basement with associated water damage

There was a sharp 6 foot drop at the bulkhead and the beach was destroyed.

 

Even Irene, Which was a nothing burger for the five boroughs… As the storm came through big branch fell off an old tree in North Flushing, right into a bedroom and killed a guy as he slept.

 

Long story short, you dont wish for a hurricane to hit your forum area

 

 

 

8 inches or rain in the city from irene is not  a nothing burger

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I feel like we’ve gotten sneaky sting jets on the back sides of these recently (i.e., Irene, Sandy, and Isaias).  Actually, IIRC, Isaias’s winds were strongest after the sun came out.  What are the chances we see something similar here, assuming Henri takes a leftward jog after coming ashore?

It’s showing up on every model but the track would likely have to be over central LI or west for it to be of any consequence for areas in the metro or Nassau county.  Otherwise they’ll just see WSW winds of 10-20mph

[lee59]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s showing up on every model but the track would likely have to be over central LI or west for it to be of any consequence for areas in the metro or Nassau county.  Otherwise they’ll just see WSW winds of 10-20mph

Areas west of the center will get NE winds shifting to North.

[MJO812]

Hurricane now

Stronger it gets the more west it gets 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hurricane now

Stronger it gets the more west it gets 

At this stage I don’t think it makes much of a difference.  It might mean instead of MTP it ends up over HTO.  It would need to get to 90-100 mph plus probably for the strength to have any markedly noticeable track shift 

[nycsnow]

Nam 3k.. hrrrr and icon all bring 40-60mph wind gust nassau county west add in rain it can still be an impactful event 

[Cerinthe Major]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

At this point northern NJ, NYC, western LI would see a rainy/breezy day. The real action would perhaps be along and east of the William Floyd Parkway in terms of wind.

I don't have an opinion on whether this will happen since I'm only a weather enthusiast. But it would represent a huge warning fail for NWS, which is itself worrisome.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

I don't have an opinion on whether this will happen since I'm only a weather enthusiast. But it would represent a huge warning fail for NWS, which is itself worrisome.

This is very confusing and sounds as if the uncertainty is the only reason a warning was issued

..TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Rahway
    - Linden
    - Elizabeth

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
    - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
    - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment.

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam 3k.. hrrrr and icon all bring 40-60mph wind gust nassau county west add in rain it can still be an impactful event 

Sell the 60 mph gusts in nassau with a MTP landfall 

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

I don't have an opinion on whether this will happen since I'm only a weather enthusiast. But it would represent a huge warning fail for NWS, which is itself worrisome.

They get things wrong from time to time. They’re still the best. 

[Sn0waddict]

Kinda surprised to see it looking like that on landfall based on how ugly it looks right now lol