Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[Phillycane]

Storm Surge Warming just came through for UES 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This might really nudge east but I wouldn’t base that on the Nam. Very subtle interactions will shift the track. 

a butterfly farting in China could affect this track for all we know.

The margin of error here is pretty large given the limited lead time, all we can really say is somewhere between Jersey shore and Cape Cod with emphasis on somewhere between Jones Beach and Montauk I'd say.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Too many week + long power outages here in recent years.  I'm a little excited, but it's just not the same as it used to be.  FYI, for those fortunate enough to live elsewhere, Long Island lags behind most third world countries when it comes to the power grid. 

14 years in Massapequa, the rest of my life in Texas, a week plus no power each hurricane, rolling blackouts for a once every 30 year cold spell (it is rare, but people know we'll have those cold spells), Long Island is not as third world as we are.  Wind farms in Iowa work in Winter, and as gas turbines make most of the electricity, and most Texans in cold weather use natural gas heat, creating shortages, well, 3 days below freezing and half of those 3 days w/o power, we're behind.

 

Texas Ed M.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Don't get me started. 

LILCO had power back in 2 days after Belle.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

Thanks EAS for the heart attack this evening...

NYC now under a storm surge warning and TS warning.

I got one of those too.  My first one!  Annoyed the hell out of me because it interrupted the Yankees game and I missed them scoring a few runs lol.  Anyhow. looks like they might be considering evacuating Fire Island?

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Phillycane said:

Storm Surge Warming just came through for UES 

Same here in Westchester (2nd time today).

[USCG RS]

I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. 

I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. 

It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. 

[JonClaw]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Anyhow. looks like they might be considering evacuating Fire Island?

With a surge of 2 to 4 feet, I hope they do!

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. 

I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. 

It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. 

Imo unless you're on the east side of this storm it's just a rainy day until you get to inland areas near streams and rivers and then it's a big big problem.  So if this storm ends up east of LI the only areas that should worry are inland (outside our subforum) and maybe low lying areas on LI sound. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

With a surge of 2 to 4 feet, I hope they do!

No one should be on Fire Island for this storm 

[sferic]

What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility?

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility?

Very unlikely but who knows. Models don't handle TC intensity very well.   

[Nibor]

GFS scrapes Montauk at 988mb

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility?

Not an expert, but between no models showing Cat 2 and 12 to 24 hours over sub 26C water, no.  Probably not.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Imo unless you're on the east side of this storm it's just a rainy day until you get to inland areas near streams and rivers and then it's a big big problem.  So if this storm ends up east of LI the only areas that should worry are inland (outside our subforum) and maybe low lying areas on LI sound. 

Seriously, keep the east ticks going. There would still be tree/power line damage and some flooding with being on the west side since we’ve been so wet over the summer and it won’t take much wind to knock trees down but its beyond better than the east side. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Seriously, keep the east ticks going. There would still be tree/power line damage and some flooding with being on the west side since we’ve been so wet over the summer and it won’t take much wind to knock trees down but its beyond better than the east side. 

I don't think there will be any winds over 50mph on the west side of this but I supposed we'll see. 

[Juliancolton]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

inland (outside our subforum)

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility?

The window for anything more than a mid-range Cat 1 is closing, if it hasn't already. Recon and sat loops show the LLC still decoupled from coldest cloud tops. By the time it gets some semblance of structural organization, it'll start running into SST and shear issues once again.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

 

Stop pretending like you want flooding lol

[Juliancolton]

Just now, Rjay said:

Stop pretending like you want flooding lol

Just a little ponding on roadways, as a treat

[Snowlover11]

well that’s disappointing was hoping for some nice rain and wind, now at best gusty showers.

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Stop pretending like you want flooding lol

Stop pretending that you don't. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Why would NHC bring track considerably west at 11pm before globals come out?  I would think they could have waited until 5am to make changes. Nam, Rgem, and now GFS have tracked over extreme eastern LI. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Why would NHC bring track considerably west at 11pm before globals come out?  I would think they could have waited until 5am to make changes. Nam, Rgem, and now GFS have tracked over extreme eastern LI. 

This could easily trend back west tomorrow 

[Rjay]

My cone. If i had to narrow it I would move the western edge 25 miles east and wouldn't touch the eastern edge.  

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This could easily trend back west tomorrow 

I know it can but why make the changes tonight. Nam and rgem had trended east as did the gfs a little later, plus euro is a big run tonight as well. I just don't understand why they made that westward shift at 11pm instead of waiting for 5am update. 

[Rtd208]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This could easily trend back west tomorrow 

It could but as some have been saying I think we are coming to a consensus and narrowing the goal posts.

[kat5hurricane]

I think a Storm Surge Warning and even Tropical Storm Warning is overdoing it for Western L.I. westward based on model trends, even Central L.I. might very well escape the brunt. This seems like an Eastern L.I. and southeast New England special to me. Even the rain doesn't seem all that prolific.

[Rtd208]

For the immediate NYC metro and NE NJ I would be more concerned with a heavy rain/flood threat from a PRE or Henri itself. There will probably be a few unexpected surprises in store for portions on the NYC metro.

[Nibor]

Canadian splits Montauk and Block Island 993mb

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. 

I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. 

It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. 

If this stalls somewhat north of the area, wouldn't it mean that's where the most rain will be?  Let's say it stalls in the Catskills, would we be out of the heavy rainfall when it stalls there?