Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[nycsnow]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro east with heavy rain for LI and wind for southeast Mass 

Let’s see if 18z was just a blip suite still a lot of time but if 18z started a trend it’s a dud west of Suffolk 

[Cheticus]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Let’s see if 18z was just a blip suite still a lot of time but if 18z started a trend it’s a dud west of Suffolk 

Good news.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Let’s see if 18z was just a blip suite still a lot of time but if 18z started a trend it’s a dud west of Suffolk 

Fine by me.

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Fine by me.

Kindly prefer cloudy and slightly breezy as opposed to 3-5+” of rain

[Snowlover11]

well it was nice while it lasted, shifting east so far on the 18z, 0z runs should be fun

[SnowGoose69]

15 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Let’s see if 18z was just a blip suite still a lot of time but if 18z started a trend it’s a dud west of Suffolk 

Alot of the time the 60-84 period is one of over correction and then you flip back a bit the other way.  It’s probably going to be a twin forks or just east landfall 

[nycsnow]

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

And two remain (of the directly to NYC tracks) 

[nycsnow]

Those tropical models do use some 18z data so no surprise it’s east a bit 

[psv88]

Let’s blow her out to sea. Who needs a hurricane. Had enough damage last year from Isaias. I’m all set for a few years. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Those tropical models do use some 18z data so no surprise it’s east a bit 

0z should be telling

[nycsnow]

 Nassau County, coastal SW CT,
southern Westchester, and interior coastal CT
 Winds - Moderate potential for 50-60 mph sustained winds with 70-80 mph gusts.
 Likely Timing - Sunday morning into afternoon.
 Impacts – Widespread tree damage and power line damage likely. Wind impacts could be on the same level of Irene.
 NYC/NJ metro counties-
 Winds- Moderate potential for 30-40 mph
sustained winds with 50-60 mph gusts.
 Likely Timing - Sunday morning into afternoon.
 Impacts – Scattered tree damage and power line damage possible. Wind impacts could be on the level of Irene.
  Last Updated: 8/20/2021 9:04 PM National Weather Service – New York

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

And two remain (of the directly to NYC tracks) 

Strong consensus for eastern 1/3 of LI then NW into CT

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Strong consensus for eastern 1/3 of LI then NW into CT

Big sense now that most of CT is in trouble. Whether it’s eastern or western third (likely both) needs to be resolved in the next 18-24 hours. 

[nycsnow]

Nam east so far compared to 18z

[allgame830]

Even with a landfall on far eastern LI the impacts will be felt for the entire metro area because of the NW movement after landfall!

[Rjay]

Where's @NorthShoreWx

[nycsnow]

The new 12k nam completely misses a Long Island landfall lol

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

The new 12k nam completely misses a Long Island landfall lol

Yep into RI then north from there. Verbatim a non event for most here.  From the furthest west to now furthest east model lol 

[Rmine1]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

The new 12k nam completely misses a Long Island landfall lol

And I wasted money and time at Lowe’s for nothing 

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

The new 12k nam completely misses a Long Island landfall lol

Great news 

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

And I wasted money and time at Lowe’s for nothing 

I wouldn’t base a forecast for a hurricane using the NAM smh

[nycsnow]

Then there’s this model the fv

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, allgame830 said:

I wouldn’t base a forecast for a hurricane using the NAM smh

I wouldn’t either but most guidance has shifted east some since 12z

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I wouldn’t either but most guidance has shifted east some since 12z

Ya it’s called the windshield wiper effect.

[jlauderdal]

The new 12k nam completely misses a Long Island landfall lol

I would avoid looking at the nam for anything tropical in nature

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

And I wasted money and time at Lowe’s for nothing 

Agree

[Rmine1]

When do the warnings get dropped? For a majority of the sub forum 

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

When do the warnings get dropped? For a majority of the sub forum 

Is this a serious question? Smh

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

When do the warnings get dropped? For a majority of the sub forum 

so you’re gunna drop warnings just based off of one model run? let atleast the entire suite play out.