Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[SnowGoose69]

HMON seems to be coming back to the party vs New Jersey 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HMON seems to be coming back to the party vs New Jersey 

82kt maximum 

[nycsnow]

HMON super east vs 12z

[nycsnow]

HMON is basically a showery day west of Suffolk 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

HMON super east vs 12z

This is narrowing down IMO to Moriches to Block Island for landfall. And not a huge area of direct impacts like tropical systems usually are for this area. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This is narrowing down IMO to Moriches to Block Island for landfall. And not a huge area of direct impacts like tropical systems usually are for this area. 

These models are going to jump back and forth until recon finishes. 

[nycsnow]

HWRF coming in west now

[jets]

I would wait for 0z when fresh recon data comes in. Tell you one big trend and that is the euro eps. 12z had many going into nj

[SleetStormNJ]

Just like in winter have to avoid model ping pong and observe trends, one, verification data.  Wide spread locally still on table through tomorrow.  

Do think there is a nice swath that’s going to pounded W/SW of the low once it hooks with a ton of rain in quick period Sunday/evening.

 

[David-LI]

[Santa Claus]

23 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I remember there used to be a President of the United States that used to talk about fake news. Don't remember what year it was? It was awhile ago. 

many models, some of the best models, are saying Henri is so weak.  he's a total disaster, OK?  his inner core, it's so fake and so bad.  no one has seen dry air intrusion like this, believe me.

[David-LI]

Just now, Will - Rutgers said:

many models, some of the best models, are saying Henri is so weak.  he's a total disaster, OK?  his inner core, it's so fake and so bad.  no one has seen dry air intrusion like this, believe me.

"We should shoot Henri. The best thing when you see a hurricane is you shoot it. Believe me."

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

many models, some of the best models, are saying Henri is so weak.  he's a total disaster, OK?  his inner core, it's so fake and so bad.  no one has seen dry air intrusion like this, believe me.

 

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

"We should shoot Henri. The best thing when you see a hurricane is you shoot it. Believe me."

I’ll leave that to you younger folks. As always …..

[CIK62]

Separately:      Eye should cross LI at 72.4 in about 45 hours.       This would be near Southampton.        H.W. is already up for the area.

Forecast Track

Time of Latest Forecast: 2021-08-20 18:00

Forecast Hour	Latitude	Longitude	Intensity
0	30.8	286.2	60
12	32.8	286.7	65
24	35.8	287.7	75
36	38.9	288.1	75
48	40.8	287.6	65
72	42.9	287.4	30
96	43.8	291.1	25
120	0.0	0.0	0

[SnowGoose69]

29 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

HWRF coming in west now

Ended up close to the HMON 

[David-LI]

7 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Separately:      Eye should cross LI at 72.4 in about 45 hours.       This would be near Southampton.        H.W. is already up for the area.

Forecast Track

Time of Latest Forecast: 2021-08-20 18:00

Forecast Hour	Latitude	Longitude	Intensity
0	30.8	286.2	60
12	32.8	286.7	65
24	35.8	287.7	75
36	38.9	288.1	75
48	40.8	287.6	65
72	42.9	287.4	30
96	43.8	291.1	25
120	0.0	0.0	0

Great not only losing power, but we are also getting Cum Wind

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Great not only losing power, but we are also getting Cum Wind

[kat5hurricane]

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Great not only losing power, but we are also getting Cum Wind

So funny.  I was just thinking the same thing when I saw that post. 

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Never stand down wind of CUM wind. It is unsafe.

[Santa Claus]

usually i am too afraid to shitpost jokes in a serious thread but Rjay is currently at the store buying seven gallons of 2% milk and a pallet of jumbo eggs

the mods are vulnerable boys

 

 

no but seriously Rjay good luck holy shit

[Rtd208]

[nycsnow]

Navy east but big rainstorm for city and nassau 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, RippleEffect said:

I guess it’ll take another set of runs to be decently certain where this storm is headed. By tomorrow night we should know for sure

And even then, sometimes these tropical systems surprise with super last minute changes 

[psv88]

So shifts east now?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So shifts east now?

Yes on 18z

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

So shifts east now?

I'd say more of a narrowing of the goal posts.

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

I'd say more of a narrowing of the goal posts.

More this than anything. C LI to Block Island LF is growing ever more likely 

[Cygnus X-1]

Gloria was the last time in 1985 when LI got hammered by a direct hit....

 

 

[brentrich]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So shifts east now?

No, still the same. 

[Allsnow]

18z euro east with heavy rain for LI and wind for southeast Mass