Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[jm1220]

Comes down to how much it strengthens IMO. If it stays weak maybe it goes east like the HWRF but if it really blows up, it might get pulled west more. That was a decent jump east on the HWRF though. Most likely to me it comes in east of the William Floyd Pkwy somewhere. 

[David-LI]

[bluewave]

No surprise that the 12z Euro came further west into Suffolk similar to many 6z EPS members.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Further west shifts seem possible but it'll come down to how sharply it hooks left. 

It could hit anywhere from NYC to eastern LI.

[Newman]

[ForestHillWx]

I’ll take my 1.5” qpf and be happy. It was getting dry out this way. 

[Newman]

Huge rains for inland areas on the Euro. I'm not familiar with NY climo per-say, but I'd imagine you'd get some nice orographic enhancement on the east side of the Catskills with this trajectory?

[Nibor]

12z:

Euro ~987mb Landfall near Westhampton LI

GFS ~984mb Landfall near Montauk LI

UKMET ~981mb Landfall near Jones Beach LI

CMC ~995mb Landfall near Fire Island/Islip LI

HWRF ~990mb Landfall near Block Island, RI/CT border

HMON ~984mb Landfall near Asbury Park NJ

 

[Newman]

Euro pins the Catskills with 12-14" of rain. Irene all over again. Dear Lord.

[Nibor]

Quote

 

[LoboLeader1]

 

[hudsonvalley21]

7 minutes ago, Newman said:

Euro pins the Catskills with 12-14" of rain. Irene all over again. Dear Lord.

Agree. Also rains from Fred has the ground saturated in spots. Areas along the Delaware River would have some catastrophic flooding with that much QPF.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

 

And it might be 30 more years bc this looks like a LI strike. 

[Cerinthe Major]

Talked to a few people today on Long Island, including a police officer, who seem barely aware there's even bad weather coming. I'm in NW Nassau so there's less risk, but I do still worry about people getting caught flat-footed, especially since the power and even cellular service around here goes out for 12 hours if you sneeze funny. 

[sussexcountyobs]

21 minutes ago, Newman said:

Euro pins the Catskills with 12-14" of rain. Irene all over again. Dear Lord.

Practically a 0% chance anywhere in the Catskills or anywhere in our region sees that much rain. Or even close to that much rain.

[HeadInTheClouds]

23 minutes ago, Newman said:

Euro pins the Catskills with 12-14" of rain. Irene all over again. Dear Lord.

No it doesn't. It gives that area 5-6 inches thru 12z Tuesday. 

[Hc7]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

About the worst possible spot for my location 

Same...all these years I thought id be safe in south/central Nassau, Henri has other plans apparently. I cringe to think about what type of impact something like this would have on the area, Isias was a disaster in terms of outages and that was just winds for a few hours, id imagine damages could be as bad or even worse than Sandy if that model verifies. A few days ago I thought there was no chance we could get a direct hit but it feels like its only getting more likely as things progress. Im just preparing myself to accept that we probably wont have power for like a week. 

[GreekWeatherGod95]

1 minute ago, Hc7 said:

Same...all these years I thought id be safe in south/central Nassau, Henri has other plans apparently. I cringe to think about what type of impact something like this would have on the area, Isias was a disaster in terms of outages and that was just winds for a few hours, id imagine damages could be as bad or even worse than Sandy if that model verifies. A few days ago I thought there was no chance we could get a direct hit but it feels like its only getting more likely as things progress. Im just preparing myself to accept that we probably wont have power for like a week. 

Same for me in North Bellmore

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

No it doesn't. It gives that area 5-6 inches thru 12z Tuesday. 

Still a few runs to go. That QPF map will fluctuate with location and amounts. 

[Nibor]

[HeadInTheClouds]

7 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Still a few runs to go. That QPF map will fluctuate with location and amounts. 

Yes, but that 12-14 was totally incorrect. 6 inches is still a lot of rain especially with what has fallen recently. 

Edit: I just saw that Euro does give part of central NY state 12 inches, not the Catskills but that would still be very bad. 

[hudsonvalley21]

9 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yes, but that 12-14 was totally incorrect. 6 inches is still a lot of rain especially with what has fallen recently. 

Don’t mean to split hairs, the euro  QPF map’s bullseye is around Stamford, Ny, that is in Delaware county and in the Catskills.

[Snowlover11]

[Snowlover11]

before telling someone they are wrong look again.

[RippleEffect]

Waiting for tonight’s model runs to really nail it down. If we see that hook this could really be bad for anywhere from westchester county and east! 

[Nibor]

[HeadInTheClouds]

11 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

before telling someone they are wrong look again.

I edited my post. I realized there was 12-13 inches indicated by the euro near Cooperstown NY in central NY. I initially was looking at the Catskills which isn't that far from me and had only 5-6 inches. 

[SnowGoose69]

Thats the best agreement yet if you do not count those  HMONers into NJ

 

[wdrag]

Been playing catchup on the thread title, so as not to be hyping too soon but I think it's come time to adjust closer to the expected projected rarity for parts of our subforum. Details TBD.

'

333PM Friday about 33 hours after issuance.  Changed title to Moderate - MAJOR impacts,  tags changed from tropical weather to hurricane gusts,  heavy rain changed to flooding rains, RC and CF remain as they were

It is becoming more apparent via modeling through the 12z/20 cycle,  tho follow NHC, that this storm wants to turn northwest and make landfall anywhere between Block Island to Sandy Hook. Where and intensity? IFFFF Henri still passes east of Montauk,  that will be fortunate for LI/CT.  Follow NHC, and updated collaborated models and experienced statistical output of Tropical verification. 

Strongest gusts and largest waves & storm surge should be east of the center on the Atlantic side of the the storm,  but beware all the east and northeast facing inlets LI Sound.  RC obviously dangerous, and possibly even for experienced surfers. SHOULD BE ZERO casualties due to RC and high Surf.  There is enough info out there now that asks us be smart about living safely.  

Wind: potential from a combination of squall gusts 40 (to possibly ~ 65kt) and preceding heavy rains near and east of the center track,  to uproot and snap fully leaved trees, with 'potential' for long duration power outages.  Therefore east of the center track, charge your phones, have fuel ready for generators (outdoor exhaust only) and maybe rent a couple of movies since along and east of the center internet connectivity may be lost. 

TOR (s): maybe? mainly northeast quad of Henri Sunday morning. 

Rainfall: Looks like 3" near and west of the center of passage, but pockets of surprise amounts elsewhere in the interior?  Max by Tuesday in the lingering weakened remnant state??? Maybe isolated 10" somewhere???

Coastal Flooding: dependent on timing with the high of the tide cycles this weekend. 

This will be a pretty big storm, with varying impacts.  Worthy of monitoring updates and being cautious about outdoor activity late Saturday-Sunday. 

[crossbowftw3]

My concern for flooding here inland has gone up a good deal since the 12z models ran their course. Definitely have to think ALY/BGM will have just as much of a mess on their hands as OKX/BOX will watching where the heaviest rains end up.