Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[crossbowftw3]

Meanwhile LF point may yet still miss BlD just to the east lol 

[Euripides]

Anyone have local amounts in southern middlesex county?

It really poured for 2 to 3 hours during the night and had to clean up some water in the basement as one of my window wells flooded and slowly seeped in.
Pool overflowed as well.

Lawn is well watered for a few days so that is good 

 

[Intensewind002]

Not even an inch of rain yet back home, highest gust at frg was only 18 mph lol.

[Akeem the African Dream]

19 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

Structure looks pretty awful.  Can’t imagine this will have much of a core when it arrives 

nailed it 

 

[doncat]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I'm not surprised it's so low.  They consistently get snow reports wrong and have a temperature sensor in the jungle.  They probably hang an umbrella over their rain gauge.  

But they need the umbrella to stop the overhanging trees from dropping leaves into the rain gage.

[lee59]

.5 inch of rain here from Henri and raining pretty hard.

[Intensewind002]

I thought we were going to lose it for sure, but I think the non power outage streak my house/street has is going to continue. Haven't lost power since Sandy and now we're pushing on ten years straight 

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, doncat said:

But they need the umbrella to stop the overhanging trees from dropping leaves into the rain gage.

It’s very disappointing to see how they  let the NYC  observation station go once the NWS left Rockefeller Center.

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

[wdrag]

Here's some CoCoRahs data for the past 24 hours. Also 68 MPH at about 945A at BID WXUNDERGROUND. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Hc7 said:

Looks like those of us in central/towards the south shore of Nassau really lucked out big time, didnt get much rain last night despite the huge totals not too far away in the queens/brooklyn/hoboken area and seems like were also going to be perfectly situated to miss most of the worst parts of Henri outside of some decent precipitation and a little wind over the next 24+ hours. Despite all that im still not confident in terms of being spared outages, ya never know with this power grid and the incompetency that is PSEG.

It’s because I drove down here. I appreciate the thanks lol. 

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Here's some CoCoRahs data for the past 24 hours. Also 68 MPH at about 945A at BID WXUNDERGROUND. 

fwiw..just click the map of interest for greater clarity of detail..that said for us older eyes.

[lee59]

Block Island was pretty close if not in the eastern eye wall and it had a gust to 66mph.

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

fwiw..just click the map of interest for greater clarity of detail..that said for us older eyes.

Thanks for this

[Cerinthe Major]

In NW Nassau, so far, got significantly more damage from a sudden unwarned thunderstorm a little over a week ago than I did from Henri. Inches of rain and still falling, no wind to speak of. I overprepared, which makes me feel a little silly but relieved to have power heading into the heat this week.

[hooralph]

Can we agree the worst local impact from this storm might be Cuomo grandstanding for one last briefing?

[radarman]

17 minutes ago, doncat said:

I don't know if this was brought up but....knyc setting an hourly rain record ? 1.95"... The record was that low? I received 2.20" last night in about 50 minutes.

That is shockingly low/highly suspect.  It should be more like a once every 15 year event or something by the rainfall climo maps. 

[hudsonvalley21]

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Henri will track northwest into southern New England Sunday into Sunday night, shifting the heavy rain into southwest Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley during through Monday. A widespread rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is possible as Henri losses forward speed as it begins to be absorbed into the upper level trough. Upper level southerly jet extending south of the region into the Atlantic will help provide a tropical rich moisture source with layer precipitable waters remaining near 2 inches tonight into early Monday. The flood watch for the entire region has been extended in time until 8 PM EDT Monday night to cover the lingering rainfall into Monday as well as residual runoff and river flooding anticipated. The day 2 outlook for WPC has the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. The potential is there for long fused minor river flooding for down stream rivers such as the Passaic, Saddle, and Housatonic Rivers. This situation will have to be monitored throughout the day Monday for updates as much is dependent on the exact location of heaviest rainfall.

 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, hudsonvalley21 said:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Henri will track northwest into southern New England Sunday into Sunday night, shifting the heavy rain into southwest Connecticut and the Lower Hudson Valley during through Monday. A widespread rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is possible as Henri losses forward speed as it begins to be absorbed into the upper level trough. Upper level southerly jet extending south of the region into the Atlantic will help provide a tropical rich moisture source with layer precipitable waters remaining near 2 inches tonight into early Monday. The flood watch for the entire region has been extended in time until 8 PM EDT Monday night to cover the lingering rainfall into Monday as well as residual runoff and river flooding anticipated. The day 2 outlook for WPC has the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. The potential is there for long fused minor river flooding for down stream rivers such as the Passaic, Saddle, and Housatonic Rivers. This situation will have to be monitored throughout the day Monday for updates as much is dependent on the exact location of heaviest rainfall.

 

We’re gonna have to pay very close attention to our local feeds about what roads get washed out over the next 36 hours...fun times  

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Block Island was pretty close if not in the eastern eye wall and it had a gust to 66mph.

For comparison Isaias gusted to 78mph at Farmingdale. There will be an area that winds get nasty but surge/wind won’t be a big deal outside of coastal RI. It’ll be talked about much more for rain. 

[rclab]

1 minute ago, hooralph said:

Can we agree the worst local impact from this storm might be Cuomo grandstanding for one last briefing?

Good morning hooralph and why not …. Since no one else will be in/on/or anywhere near that grandstand. As always …..

[hudsonvalley21]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

So we will by 2PM know how we stand on wind and power outages, initially.  Then dealing with pockets of 30-40 kt gusts during the night, high terrain NNJ/se NYS with weakened root systems could add to the total power outages.  

My concern, as many, is the additional 2 to possibly 12" of rain in our subforum by late Monday night. My focus continues NNJ/ne PA/Catskill region where I think we pound tonight and Monday morning with widespread 3-7" isolated 10".  If this occurs as I anticipate,  has to result to in moderate or greater stream flooding, some small fast responding streams with bridge washouts/road closures ne PA, NNJ, se NYS.  

I've added previous week rain departure which to me focuses, most favorable flood area ne PA, nNJ.  Also some FGEN guidance that I like which is verifying nicely. See 11z radar today and the expected shift north with interim guidance not shown.

SPC HREF max amounts axis shown as well as the HRRRX max rainfall axis (single member).

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Walt 

us inland folks could have some serious flooding issues here later.

[JustinRP37]

3 minutes ago, hooralph said:

Can we agree the worst local impact from this storm might be Cuomo grandstanding for one last briefing?

Well DeBlasio telling people to stand in a field during a thunderstorm is up there too. Only thing missing was asking people to stand near a metal flagpole.

[larrye]

4 hours ago, Hc7 said:

I dunno why you say that as if the eye is making landfall right now, its still roughly 100+ miles out to sea and still has somewhat of a NNW heading, theres still at least 4-5 more hours for it to continue drifting and the eye can still totally clip the eastern part of the Island. Either way its pretty much irrelevant whether the eye barely misses the island by a mile completely or whether it landfalls 10 miles into the east end, the outcome and impact for a majority of the island will be nearly the exact same. Henri is still going to cause widespread, significant problems for the area. How far west it drifted had much more of an impact on the CT/Mass/RI area than it did LI.

Any tropical system or storm of significance is going to create significant issues for the area going out for some number of miles from the center. There were models (and media) that were forecasting the center to make landfall anywhere from NYC to central Nassau to central Suffolk to Montauk. Hurricane basics: the top-right quadrant is the most dangerous. In this case, the further west the center WOULD have made landfall (theoretically), the more significant the issues would have been for the area in and east of the center, and the further west (theoretically) the issues would have been. I'm not sure that it's accurate to imply that whether the center would have made landfall on the south shore and where wouldn't really have made much of a difference. Especially if Henri had turned out to be a stronger storm. 

[donsutherland1]

A steady rain and light breeze on the Long Island Sound in southern Westchester County.

[radarman]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s very disappointing to see how they  let the NYC  observation station go once the NWS left Rockefeller Center.

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

A do gooder with a brush hog will accidentally render the entire climo record obsolete

[Cheticus]

The taller trees are starting to pick up some higher gusts here in Dix Hills. 

[ILoveWinter]

38 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

None of the models had the rain coming into nyc like this even today 

Really? That was true for last night's event but they pretty much forecasted a washout for today

[lee59]

So the streak of no hurricanes coming onshore in New England will stay in tack. 30 years and counting. It has actually been 36 years for Long Island. 

[Dan76]

Now we're definitely do lol

[jm1220]

Pouring in Long Beach. It's breezy but it's a stretch to even say that lol.