Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[nycsnow]

Still hooking nnw maybe it can still be a montauk landfall 

[bluewave]

These rainfall totals may be a record for a hurricane passing this much east of NJ. But you can see the unusual set up with the upper low parked to the SW. These rain bands usually extend south to north up into Northern New England with hurricanes near the SE New England coastline. 

[crossbowftw3]

High and dry in the Catskills. Strangely feels cool and not exactly humid at the moment. First bands aren’t rotating in until Lunch or maybe after. Almost no wind threat now which is great to see but...

[RippleEffect]

Looks like it’s going directly to Montauk and than Bridgeport 

[SRRTA22]

Here comes the direct rains associated with Henri 

[uncle W]

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...NYC has almost 5" of rain so far with Henri...

date.................amount........

Sept 1882.......10.63"

Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane

Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene

Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie

Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria

Sept 1938.........5.74"

Sept 1934.........5.48"

Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd

June 2013.........4.77" Andrea

Aug 1879..........4.59"

Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle

Oct 1877...........4.07"

Aug 1893..........3.94"

Sept 1904.........3.85"

Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob

Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria

July 1960...........3.56"

Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol

Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

[bluewave]

Impressive flooding in Brooklyn last night.

 

 

 

Station Number: NJ-HD-1	Station Name: Harrison 0.3 N
Observation Date	8/22/2021 7:00 AM
Submitted	8/22/2021 6:58 AM
Total Precip Amount	4.26 in.
Notes	--
Taken at registered location	Yes
Snow Information
New Snow Depth	NA
New Snow Water Equivalent	NA
Total Snow Depth	NA
Total Snow Water Equivalent	NA
Duration Information
Precipitation Began	--
Precipitation Ended	--
Heavy Precip Began	--
Heavy Precip Lasted	--
Duration Time Accuracy	--
Additional Information
Additional Data Recorded	No
Submitted	8/22/2021 6:58 AM
Flooding

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Hc7 said:

I dunno why you say that as if the eye is making landfall right now, its still roughly 100+ miles out to sea and still has somewhat of a NNW heading, theres still at least 4-5 more hours for it to continue drifting and the eye can still totally clip the eastern part of the Island. Either way its pretty much irrelevant whether the eye barely misses the island by a mile completely or whether it landfalls 10 miles into the east end, the outcome and impact for a majority of the island will be nearly the exact same. Henri is still going to cause widespread, significant problems for the area. How far west it drifted had much more of an impact on the CT/Mass/RI area than it did LI.

You are wishcasting.

Unless the storm puts on a turn signal and makes a sharp left turn, The eye is not landing on Long Island.

 

Of course there are widespread effects outside of the eye.

 

But the thinking of a landfall between Smith Point Park and Southampton was off by 100 miles…I am glad to say

 

 

[wdrag]

So we will by 2PM know how we stand on wind and power outages, initially.  Then dealing with pockets of 30-40 kt gusts during the night, high terrain NNJ/se NYS with weakened root systems could add to the total power outages.  

My concern, as many, is the additional 2 to possibly 12" of rain in our subforum by late Monday night. My focus continues NNJ/ne PA/Catskill region where I think we pound tonight and Monday morning with widespread 3-7" isolated 10".  If this occurs as I anticipate,  has to result to in moderate or greater stream flooding, some small fast responding streams with bridge washouts/road closures ne PA, NNJ, se NYS.  

I've added previous week rain departure which to me focuses, most favorable flood area ne PA, nNJ.  Also some FGEN guidance that I like which is verifying nicely. See 11z radar today and the expected shift north with interim guidance not shown.

SPC HREF max amounts axis shown as well as the HRRRX max rainfall axis (single member).

 

 

 

 

 

[jconsor]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Harrison has the heaviest rainfall total so far for the OKX Zones. Impressive flooding in Brooklyn last night.

 

 

 

Station Number: NJ-HD-1	Station Name: Harrison 0.3 N
Observation Date	8/22/2021 7:00 AM
Submitted	8/22/2021 6:58 AM
Total Precip Amount	4.26 in.
Notes	--
Taken at registered location	Yes
Snow Information
New Snow Depth	NA
New Snow Water Equivalent	NA
Total Snow Depth	NA
Total Snow Water Equivalent	NA
Duration Information
Precipitation Began	--
Precipitation Ended	--
Heavy Precip Began	--
Heavy Precip Lasted	--
Duration Time Accuracy	--
Additional Information
Additional Data Recorded	No
Submitted	8/22/2021 6:58 AM
Flooding	--

Amounts up to 6" were reported in nw Brooklyn:
 

 

[donsutherland1]

Highest NJ rainfall totals so far:

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Amounts up to 6" were reported in nw Brooklyn:

NYC just set its new heaviest hourly rainfall total at 1.94”. The 8th heaviest hourly total was set back in July. Notice how many hourly records were set in recent years.

[Snowlover11]

rain has moved back in, lets flood.

[eyewall]

Landfall should be somewhere in southwestern RI. This means not much of a wind event for central/western LI and NYC. Some low end TS winds in gusts for the most part, especially east. This is a rain event for the NYC Metro mainly.

[BayShore]

A bunch of hobbyists at home once again make corporate funded meteorologists and news outlets look like complete idiots. Nice job everyone.

[nycsnow]

How can models be so wrong already esp a short term hrrrrrr 

[nycsnow]

[uncle W]

rain is backing in from the east on radar...game still on...

[tek1972]

Really blowin out there

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[psv88]

1 minute ago, tek1972 said:

Really blowin out there

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk
 

Dead calm out there. I mean dead calm. 

[nycsnow]

Lots of street flooding here still in staten island 

[tek1972]

South and SouthEast side of the storm on radar really eroding.
Some weakening happening?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[justinj]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dead calm out there. I mean dead calm. 

Lucked out here with the wind  Very heavy rain right now with very little wind 

[nycsnow]

Complete model failure with the rainfall half of them don’t even have nyc getting this rain today let alone what happened last night 

[lee59]

After 1.5 inches of rain last night, I have received .17 from Henri. Light rain falling, very light winds.

[Tatamy]

Following two WU stations on BID as the NW eyewall of Henri approaches.  Highest gusts so far are 54 and 56 mph.

[the_other_guy]

 

All the LI Airports last hour.

 

Gusty from Brookhaven out.

Even Islip is fairly calm

[etudiant]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Complete model failure with the rainfall half of them don’t even have nyc getting this rain today let alone what happened last night 

The rain band that impacted NYC and NJ last night sort of reached way out from the storm.

It seemed unusual, but it is still surprising that the models did not recognize the precipitation potential. Wonder what lessons will be learned from this.  

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

 

All the LI Airports last hour.

 

Gusty from Brookhaven out.

Even Islip is fairly calm

 

The best part is the TAFs...60kts at ISP and 44kts at JFK.  My hunch is there is some sort of agreement to appease NHC for the warnings because 925 winds do not support anything remotely near that.

 

 

 

[Tatamy]

You have to go out to eastern Suffolk to find strong winds.  I found a station out in Baiting Hollow at Reeves Beach on WU overlooking the Sound with a recent gust to 49 mph.