Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[MJO812]

Subway closings in Brooklyn

Flooding everywhere

This is bad

[LibertyBell]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:17 AM, donsutherland1 said:

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Don 2 inches of rain fell in one hour?

 

[psv88]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:19 AM, MJO812 said:

Recon has it moving NNW

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It was always supposed to tug back west…

[SI Mailman]

The 3.93 inches at the park is a bad reading.  The zookeeper only measured 1.5 inches of snow.  

 

Ok carry on.  

[nycsnow]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:23 AM, psv88 said:

It was always supposed to tug back west…

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Didnt the models lose that? Hence the missing LI landfall 

[cleetussnow]

I feel like the sh*ts going to go down up here at HPN tonight and tomorrow with the NW movement apparently underway. 

[LibertyBell]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:01 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park received 1.94” of rain in the last hour. That set a new hourly record. The old record was 1.76”, which was set on September 8, 2004. 

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and 4 inches total rainfall so far

[nycwinter]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:23 AM, psv88 said:

It was always supposed to tug back west…

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looks like it will head into long island after all if it keeps this movement and not rhode island

[MJO812]

NY NJ PA Weather

So when I see something like these observations, I lean towards a track moving due north, maybe shifting to NNW by tomorrow morning rather than going to the NE.  As such, I think the east solution into RI is....questionable.

[MJO812]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:27 AM, nycwinter said:

looks like it will head into long island after all if it keeps this movement and not rhode island

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Maybe central LI 

[MJO812]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:25 AM, LibertyBell said:

and 4 inches total rainfall so far

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I got 6 in inches from Irene 

[nycsnow]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:27 AM, nycwinter said:

looks like it will head into long island after all if it keeps this movement and not rhode island

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If it keeps these movements it can be more middle of Suffolk as opposed to eastern maybe 

[hooralph]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:17 AM, donsutherland1 said:

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Congrats, Don! That factoid just made its way to Maggie Haberman’s 1.7M Twitter followers

[MattPetrulli]

 

[SRRTA22]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:27 AM, MJO812 said:

I got 6 in inches from Irene 

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Thanks for the update ant. Stay safe out there

This is epic level training

[SnoSki14]

Never underestimate the flooding potential in these setups.

[nycsnow]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:31 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Never underestimate the flooding potential in these setups.

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Whatcha thinking about that nw movement now 

[MJO812]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:31 AM, SRRTA22 said:

Thanks for the update ant. Stay safe out there

This is epic level training

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I'm in Maryland right now

I will be home tomorrow afternoon 

[donsutherland1]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:28 AM, hooralph said:

Congrats, Don! That factoid just made its way to Maggie Haberman’s 1.7M Twitter followers

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Wow. H/T The intense rainfall.

[justinj]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:27 AM, MJO812 said:

Maybe central LI 

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Dont think it’ll make it that far west 

[Hc7]

I dont see why that ULL wont continue dragging it NNW until landfall(to an extent), the trough cleared out and that ULL is strong enough(clearly, judging by how much/quickly it made it jog west), not to mention there looks to be a legitimate eye on IR now although any intensification thats going on will likely be short lived. The NNW movement may slow down as it approaches landfall but I think we can say at this point the question is not IF it will clip LI but how far west it will make LF on the island, im not feeling too hot about this NNW movement here in Nassau.

[Newman]

[nycsnow]

Radar blowing up again wow model fail

[MJO812]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:37 AM, nycsnow said:

Radar blowing up again wow model fail

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Cmc has nothing right now

All the models are clueless right now

[SI Mailman]

FFW being extended til 2:15 AM for parts of NJ and 3:15 AM for Morris

[Hc7]

may not look very good in terms of its presentation but you can really see the storm being sucked NNW here, central LI landfall might not be as crazy as some people thought earlier today. Regardless of intensity at landfall, its going to be bad news for us on LI.

[weathermedic]

Closing in on 4 inches (3.87) with a rate of 6.6/hr now with this band.

[MattPetrulli]

  On 8/22/2021 at 4:45 AM, weathermedic said:

Closing in on 4 inches (3.87) with a rate of 6.6/hr now with this band.

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Catastrophic model failure

[SnoSki14]

Deep easterly Atlantic moisture feed right now. 

Doesn't matter if the storm stays east of LI, we'll still see flooding. 

[psv88]

Every model has the western movement, it’s expected.