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Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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forkyfork
forkyfork

i can't rule out a tucked in nyc landfall

hooralph
hooralph

Can we agree the worst local impact from this storm might be Cuomo grandstanding for one last briefing?

BxEngine
BxEngine

Since Long Island is further away from NYC than I am, and ive been told that im not part of this subforum…this storm wont be hitting this subforum, and all subsequent posts will be removed.    

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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

5pm advisory was slightly East. Window for significant intensification is closing. The 12z HWRF does deepen the storm to 972mb so a cat 2 isn’t off the table yet. 

Less than 12hrs it seems from 5pm discussion.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to strengthen through 
tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the 
upper-level trough, and warm SSTs.  In fact, SST analyses indicate 
that Henri will be passing over a patch of very warm 30 deg C waters 
this evening.  By early Sunday Henri is predicted to cross the 
north wall of the Gulf Stream.
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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, uofmiami said: 
Less than 12hrs it seems from 5pm discussion.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to strengthen through 
tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the 
upper-level trough, and warm SSTs.  In fact, SST analyses indicate 
that Henri will be passing over a patch of very warm 30 deg C waters 
this evening.  By early Sunday Henri is predicted to cross the 
north wall of the Gulf Stream.

The waters will be trending cooler however they are still running 24-26c south of LI so any weakening before landfall will be very gradual. In the end the dry air will probably be an issue if this never really deepens.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Who is this jackass using the hrrr?

Yeah I would be wary of using the HRRR for track but it’s pretty typical on the NW side of these, especially when they’re weakening at landfall that it’s tough to mix down winds.  Even Sandy didn’t really mix well before the area got into the SE quadrant and that was more of a warm seclusion ET than this will be 

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The waters will be trending cooler however they are still running 24-26c south of LI so any weakening before landfall will be very gradual. In the end the dry air will probably be an issue if this never really deepens.

Eh, I think upwelling is going to drop those temps considerably as Henri approaches, but we'll see.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Eastern side will be mostly void of convection when it gets up to LI.

There’ll be squalls east of the center that will mix down the strongest winds but it’s always fascinating up here how little rain comes east of the center. Isaias last year had maybe a couple of showers for me east of the center but still 75mph gusts. 

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

All the GFS is interested in is Girls, well Hot-Ones anyway .          Its only care is the all 90+ week coming up:       Dry Slots Us,      If this were a Nor'er  we could make about 1 snowball from this.      

1629547200-fmQ8CexUxVQ.png

 

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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you must've thought he named himself forky because of his forked tongue and forked tail.  Remember the Devil can come in many disguises ;)

 

Evening Liberty. A good guess but I actually thought it was a two letter spelling error. As always ….

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