Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

At this stage I tend to trust globals more.  That said the previous Euro run the Op was somewhat west of most ensembles.  We will see what the 12z has 

this almost seems like a ratings ploy by the Euro.....is it sweeps week already?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One thing to remember too is wind direction is big with these storms.  Winds of 30-40 in nassau or west Suffolk from 280-350 are way less likely to cause damage than winds of 220-110 of the same speed because tree roots here are more accustomed to big winds from the W-NW than SSW-SE.  that is one good point JB often makes and is very true 

you get that kind of damage in big sou'easter coastal storms that run inland too.

 

[BxEngine]

37 minutes ago, Rjay said:

That's LI.  This was a Suffolk convo.  Anyway, let's take this to banter and not bore the people with this crap lol. 

Especially since suffolk isnt the metro

[weatherbear5]

Deep convection just fired along the southern edge of the eye. We’re not out of the woods yet when it comes to potentially strengthening

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, bkviking said:

I moved from my long term stronghold in Miller Place to Smithtown and while adoring storms and would embrace whatever happens, I prefer this “hurricane” just keep away if it’s not gonna be big impact. Isaias seemed so puny last year and the storm was inland NJ or something but damage and power outrages on Long Island we’re too much. 
As said, I’ll be first to try and embrace a 1938 coming our way - but - don’t want this pesky fly to ruin things with our third world power grid. 

This is very much in line with me thinking. I would love to experience a major hit the island. But this storm seems more of a nuisance. Without major extra tropical transition this is a core event. So unless your within 20 miles of the landfall location winds are rather pedestrian 

[JustinRP37]

38 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Especially since suffolk isnt the metro

Geographically you are right but population based it is only Manhattanites haha

[tek1972]

Deep convection just fired along the southern edge of the eye. We’re not out of the woods yet when it comes to potentially strengthening

I think it's about out of time..

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[nycsnow]

Was looking at wrong run lol nam gonna be incredibly wet for nyc east 

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

I think it's about out of time..

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It's got another 12 hours over some really warm water. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Was looking at wrong run lol nam gonna be incredibly wet for nyc east 

Nice ccb 

[MJO812]

Eps  has a big spread 

[Rjay]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Eps  has a big spread 

Post it

[crossbowftw3]

FFWatches finally populating here inland. 2-4” which is reasonable.

[Stormlover74]

 

Still going

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Post it

Majority is in eastern LI but some stragglers near NYC.

 

[NJwx85]

 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

 

Who is this jackass using the hrrr?

[RutCorRX]

Really sorry, don't want to clog thread. Have a 4 month old and wanted to visit family down in Avalon NJ. We're leaving from Hoboken. Anyone have any suggestions if we should consider Sunday a no go for travel and just leave Monday am? First real "long" drive with the new one, so I'm gonna be white knuckle enough as it is.

[Rjay]

Just now, RutCorRX said:

Really sorry, don't want to clog thread. Have a 4 month old and wanted to visit family down in Avalon NJ. We're leaving from Hoboken. Anyone have any suggestions if we should consider Sunday a no go for travel and just leave Monday am? First real "long" drive with the new one, so I'm gonna be white knuckle enough as it is.

You'll likely fine but no need to risk it.  Go Monday. 

[Dan76]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Who is this jackass using the hrrr?

Forky?

[Rjay]

Just now, Dan76 said:

Forky?

[SRRTA22]

People are panic buying in Jersey City

[Stormlover74]

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

People are panic buying in Jersey City

Ugh I'm dreading going to the store

[Rjay]

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

People are panic buying in Jersey City

Tbf, who's going to want to go shopping tomorrow lol

[NJwx85]

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

People are panic buying in Jersey City

This is close to a non event in Jersey, especially if it comes in slightly East of the current track.

[rclab]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Who is this jackass using the hrrr?

I’ll be damned, he looks nothing like his avatar. As always ….

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

This is close to a non event in Jersey, especially if it comes in slightly East of the current track.

They won't be dropping the warnings anytime soon

[Rjay]

Just now, rclab said:

I’ll be damned, he looks nothing like his avatar. As always ….

Guy rarely has a shirt on.  

[Rjay]

A bunch of models give Suffolk 5-9" of rain fwiw.  

[jlauderdal]

Ugh I'm dreading going to the store

If you didnt go before the rush, wait until the very end, stores will be empty...works in sofla everytime..its the bell curve effect.

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