Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[wdrag]

Quick look after getting up at 6A:  My guess is future tracking of Henri will need to be slightly east of the 5A advisory... as said above somewhere east of ISP to near BID. HRRR has shifted east and the 06z GEFS is definitely east of it's 00z version.   i have no changes in thoughts updated yesterday.  Just don't know how far west the envelope of R+.  641A/21.

[Brian5671]

Wonder if it ever achieves hurricane status…still stuck at 70 mph

[crossbowftw3]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Quick look after getting up at 6A:  My guess is future tracking of Henri will need to be slightly east of the 5A advisory... as said above somewhere east of ISP to near BID. HRRR has shifted east and the 06z GEFS is definitely east of it's 00z version.   i have no changes in thoughts updated yesterday.  Just don't know how far west the envelope of R+.  641A/21.

BGM early call is 2-3” for its eastern CWA. We should see changes up or down today.

[SnowGoose69]

HMON and HWRF basically unchanged outside of noise from prior runs 

[wdrag]

22 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

BGM early call is 2-3” for its eastern CWA. We should see changes up or down today.

Thanks, glad you wrote wherever you are in se NYS.  I now think I understand why NHC-WPC did what they did for the 5A advisory.

SPC HREF (8 member ensemble-i didn't check the individual members) from the 00z/21 cycle.  Have added MAX rainfall potential through 00z/23 ((Monday) and also the HRRRX guidance of 80M winds and max gust POTENTIAL near the proposed 16z landfall and also late Sunday wraparound.  If the 12z models trend slightly east, my guess is NHC will follow suit via their consensus and statistical model applications. What I'm seeing is a good chance of 40-55kt gusts even into far nw NJ, and look at the wrap around for southern LI late Sunday afternoon.  

Now the questions to me are, not so much intensity but track. IF it shifts east, all this would be a little east.  Probably my last post til about 230P.

 

In the post below you see the spotty 10" in se PA. I accidentally reversed the 80M wind forecast (late day atop the ~16z landfall).  Just use the legends and time. 

 

 

[Snowlover11]

still not really sure what to expect, but ill tell ya one thing. out ahead of whatever comes out way it is down right disgusting outside currently.

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

still not really sure what to expect, but ill tell ya one thing. out ahead of whatever comes out way it is down right disgusting outside currently.

Total opposite out here in Bethlehem PA.  Full sun, hardly a cloud in the sky, and calm winds.

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Total opposite out here in Bethlehem PA.  Full sun, hardly a cloud in the sky, and calm winds.

it humid as hell, morning hazy/fog.  sun is out but low level hazy battling.

[USCG RS]

17 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Total opposite out here in Bethlehem PA.  Full sun, hardly a cloud in the sky, and calm winds.

 

[MJO812]

Storm looks like crap

Hope it starts to gain strength soon

Navgem  misses everyone 

[bluewave]

PSEG customers are rooting for a further east landfall on Long Island due to the precarious state of the power grid this summer.

https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/lipa-nypa-1.50331708

Problems with three major power lines to Long Island — including total outages on two of the largest — led LIPA trustees on Wednesday to approve a measure to pay $67 million to fix a Holtsville power plant the state had planned to mothball. 

LIPA and grid manager PSEG Long Island also have put on hold plans to decommission small peak-power plants in Glenwood Landing and West Babylon to help make up the gap for the failure of the two power lines this summer, officials disclosed at a LIPA trustees meeting Wednesday morning.

One of the failures involves a power cable owned by the New York Power Authority called Y-49. The cable failed Aug. 6, the fourth time in the past year, utility officials disclosed Wednesday. The Y-49 line has a capacity of 637 megawatts, nearly double the capacity of the Caithness power plant in Yaphank.

Another line between the LIPA and Con Ed system known as Y-50 that provides 656 megawatts of capacity has also failed, officials also disclosed.

The Neptune cable between Long Island and New Jersey was reduced to just over half its 660-megawatt capacity after a transformer failed earlier this year. It won't be back online until early 2022.

Off-island transmission lines, including the Cross Sound Cable and the Norwalk to Northport cables, which remain fully operable, provide around 40% of Long Island's power. 

The Y-49 and Y-50 cables could be out for a month to 10 weeks, officials said. 

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

25 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

it humid as hell, morning hazy/fog.  sun is out but low level hazy battling.

Has to be one of the worse summers humidity wise around here.

[crossbowftw3]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Storm looks like crap

Hope it starts to gain strength soon

Navgem  misses everyone 

Maybe 12 hours left to strengthen before coming into cooler waters. Twin Forks seems like the place to be for this to come ashore.

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Storm looks like crap

Hope it starts to gain strength soon

Navgem  misses everyone 

Structurally it doesn't look that bad. It's a small system, so it has the potential to intensify pretty quickly. 

I think even with a miss well east some flooding rains will be likely due to the storm's interaction with the ULL to our west. 

Paying a close eye on the HRRR

[crossbowftw3]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Structurally it doesn't look that bad. It's a small system, so it has the potential to intensify pretty quickly. 

I think even with a miss well east some flooding rains will be likely due to the storm's interaction with the ULL to our west. 

Paying a close eye on the HRRR

The window for more significant intensification is likely gone now considering though 

 

mid-range cat 1 is about the limit for this thing over the next 12 hours before its residency time over the Gulf Stream ends.

[justinj]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

PSEG customers are rooting for a further east landfall on Long Island due to the precarious state of the power grid this summer.

https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/lipa-nypa-1.50331708

Problems with three major power lines to Long Island — including total outages on two of the largest — led LIPA trustees on Wednesday to approve a measure to pay $67 million to fix a Holtsville power plant the state had planned to mothball. 

LIPA and grid manager PSEG Long Island also have put on hold plans to decommission small peak-power plants in Glenwood Landing and West Babylon to help make up the gap for the failure of the two power lines this summer, officials disclosed at a LIPA trustees meeting Wednesday morning.

One of the failures involves a power cable owned by the New York Power Authority called Y-49. The cable failed Aug. 6, the fourth time in the past year, utility officials disclosed Wednesday. The Y-49 line has a capacity of 637 megawatts, nearly double the capacity of the Caithness power plant in Yaphank.

Another line between the LIPA and Con Ed system known as Y-50 that provides 656 megawatts of capacity has also failed, officials also disclosed.

The Neptune cable between Long Island and New Jersey was reduced to just over half its 660-megawatt capacity after a transformer failed earlier this year. It won't be back online until early 2022.

Off-island transmission lines, including the Cross Sound Cable and the Norwalk to Northport cables, which remain fully operable, provide around 40% of Long Island's power. 

The Y-49 and Y-50 cables could be out for a month to 10 weeks, officials said. 

 

 

I’m fully expecting to lose power here in middle island/Miller place

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, justinj said:

I’m fully expecting to lose power here in middle island/Miller place

What you doing next to me NJ?? 

Edit: I may have read your name wrong... 

[bluewave]

A GFS-Euro blend has been the winning hand for short term track forecasts.

 

[justinj]

What’s the maximum winds we could see from this storm out here in suffolk?

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, justinj said:

What’s the maximum winds we could see from this storm out here in suffolk?

Sustained TS force easily but I would assume some Hurricane Force gusts may be seen even if this thing does not come ashore as a hurricane. 

[rclab]

13 hours ago, Nibor said:

Again again again … so many possible responses ……so few that can be printed ….. as always …..

[psv88]

Great trends today. Keep her away 

[bluewave]

6z Euro shifted east between MTP and BID.

 

[uofmiami]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Great trends today. Keep her away 

It's only because he hasn't strengthened as quick as they had forecasted.  No surprise the track moved E.  Assuming today Henri can't get it's act together, we will see SE New England getting landfall of a weakening TS.

[EasternLI]

6Z Still a lot of spread. But a decent cluster with the MTP track.

[crossbowftw3]

NAM is East. Can’t trust the NAM but at the same time the East trend is keeping up.

[nycsnow]

What a joke nam is 100s of miles east it’s amazing the hopping back and forth 

[psv88]

25 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

It's only because he hasn't strengthened as quick as they had forecasted.  No surprise the track moved E.  Assuming today Henri can't get it's act together, we will see SE New England getting landfall of a weakening TS.

Good. Nobody out here, and I mean nobody, wants this storm. 

[justinj]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Good. Nobody out here, and I mean nobody, wants this storm. 

Yup nobody wants to lose power. I’m hoping this things just shoots east. 

[tek1972]

This storm also is not looking too good on satellite today. I don't see any signs of organization as it runs out of time

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