Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

The window for anything more than a mid-range Cat 1 is closing, if it hasn't already. Recon and sat loops show the LLC still decoupled from coldest cloud tops. By the time it gets some semblance of structural organization, it'll start running into SST and shear issues once again.

This has a very Irene like look.  Similar impacts to be expected.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Just a little ponding on roadways, as a treat

your poor fish  how many were you able to save? and did you read my post about how to prevent them from being flooded away next time?

 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

PSEG talking about 7-10 days of outage certainly raised a lot of eyebrows.  Wasnt PSEG brought in here so this kind of thing wouldnt happen?

Noteworthy that they brag about all the improvements they've implemented and in the same statement mention that they expect the same crappy results.  They are incompetent.

[coastalplainsnowman]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This has a very Irene like look.  Similar impacts to be expected.

C'mon.  Irene?

(see what I did there?)

[Stormlover74]

Ukie came east. Still a bit west of the other globals into central suffolk

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

a butterfly farting in China could affect this track for all we know.

Dad used to say that a butterfly farting was all it takes to knock out power around here on a good day.

[SnowGoose69]

42 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Why would NHC bring track considerably west at 11pm before globals come out?  I would think they could have waited until 5am to make changes. Nam, Rgem, and now GFS have tracked over extreme eastern LI. 

Yeah it was strange...it was not a big move west though...they did not even really mention it in the discussion.  I felt they'd hold it where it was.

[Newman]

Plenty of rain on the Ukie. 3-5"+ amounts from NYC all the way up into Albany

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Dad used to say that a butterfly farting was all it takes to knock out power around here on a good day.

a very wise man....and that still holds true today.

I lost power the other day in a gust of wind, could've been the remnants of a fart from the other side of the world for all I know.

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

a very wise man....and that still holds true today.

I lost power the other day in a gust of wind, could've been the remnants of a fart from the other side of the world for all I know.

 

Yeah, in all seriousness if lets say 65% of the twin forks loses power you don't want to be one of those 30-40K who might go out in Nassau or W Suffolk because due to strain on staff you could be out 2-3-4 days probably when ordinarily that many out in an area is likely 12-18 hours at worst, more likely 6-8.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

C'mon.  Irene?

(see what I did there?)

one of the golden oldies for sure!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah, in all seriousness if lets say 65% of the twin forks loses power you don't want to be one of those 30-40K who might go out in Nassau or W Suffolk because due to strain on staff you could be out 2-3-4 days probably when ordinarily that many out in an area is likely 12-18 hours at worst, more likely 6-8.

thats what I was thinking too, they're going to concentrate staff on the eastern half of long island so anyone in Nassau county is SOL for awhile.

I felt lucky I only lost power for 25 hours during Sandy

 

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm a bit of a NAM hugger in the winter.  Haven't looked at it yet for this storm.  I think there will decent wind (relative to the storm intensity) on the west side of this one.  The big question and wx tongue-twister, is how far west can the west side slide if the west side can slide west.

More certain from my perspective is that someplace inland gets a lot of rain in a hurry.  What isn't clear to me is if it's from the Catskills through western Mass and southern VT or if it shifts east from central Mass into New Hampshire.  Could be an Irene-like event in some places, although not as widespread.

[Nibor]

HMON 988 over Montauk

[Nibor]

HWRF 985mb near Montauk

[guinness77]

I want to thank you guys (and gals, maybe?) for 10 years of letting me lurk here and be able to tell my family and friends days in advance what the hell is going on, weather-wise. Maybe it’s the fact I’m delirious from 72 hours of work the last 5 days or the beer I just drank, but I’ve almost joined so many times and finally did tonight. 
 

Anyway, thanks for all the info. I enjoy reading the site, I consider myself a bit of a weather buff (thank you, Gloria). I’ve been in the eye of a Hurricane, been in an earthquake (a very small one) and a full blown tornado so I consider myself lucky to be in the company of experts. Lol, take a bow, I feel like I already know some of you. And, thank you especially to Walt. Your threads are awesome. 
 

tl/dr: embarrassing first post 

[Nibor]

Euro 992mb near Montauk. Think the models are zeroing in on a landfall...

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Euro 992mb near Montauk. Think the models are zeroing in on a landfall...

They're all near Montauk?  Does any miss landfall on Long Island?

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They're all near Montauk?  Does any miss landfall on Long Island?

0z:

Euro ~992mb near Montauk

GFS ~988mb scrapes Montauk

UKMET ~985mb near Westhampton/Quogue LI

CMC ~993mb splits Montauk and Block Island Landfalls near CT/RI border

HWRF ~985mb near Montauk

HMON ~988mb over Montauk

Quote

 

[donsutherland1]

0z GEFS:

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

Welcome… I’m a newbie too. Lurker for a long time. I honestly am excited for a nice storm like this it usually means summer is almost over and buckle up for winter. Now that I can’t wait for I have this good feeling we’re going to get hit this winter. Nice to meet you guys I’m Tony

[Rjay]

Lol

 

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol

 

Placement aside, the real trend I think should be of note is intensity.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Placement aside, the real trend I think should be of note is intensity.

Weak sauce but super lolz at the 100 mile jump west

 

[David-LI]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Weak sauce but super lolz at the 100 mile jump west

 

Hm could be catching up to something 

[Tatamy]

The NAM led the way east a few runs ago.  Now the 06z NAM says I don’t think so.  This track has been closely related to the intensity of the storm.  In the 5am advisory the NHC noted that the shear is finally beginning to relax.  I am guessing that the NAM is seeing that  and the resulting greater intensity potential and hence the move back west.  If the storm does intensify today there could be some potentially threatening model runs for LI and the remainder of the region.  In any case the strongest winds with this event will be felt along the south shore and the east end particularly along the barrier beaches.  At 5am the NHC discontinued the hurricane watch for most of SE MA including Cape Cod.  They reiterate that conditions will be favorable for strengthening for the next 12-18 hours.  Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday for parts of LI and CT.  The next recon is due into the storm at 1200 UTC.

[tmagan]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

PSEG talking about 7-10 days of outage certainly raised a lot of eyebrows.  Wasnt PSEG brought in here so this kind of thing wouldnt happen?

Give a worse case scenario, then if it is far less than 7 - 10 days, then you look good.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Weak sauce but super lolz at the 100 mile jump west

 

And oddly enough given the slow movement and the tropical moisture it could still do a lot of damage. 

You'd still get surges piling up with full moon tides and plenty of flooding rains on SW side. All this from what would be a 50-60mph TS.

[bluewave]

We often get model convergence on the run when a tropical cyclone completes it turn to the north. The 0z runs were focused on Eastern Long Island for a landfall. Highest impacts located  right along the eventual track of Henri. This is one of the smallest tropical cyclones to impact the area.

 

[EasternLI]

00z eps 

 

I've been liking that near MTP track since yesterday while quietly observing. Would make this a big rainmaker where I am. Interesting couple days on tap.