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Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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forkyfork
forkyfork

i can't rule out a tucked in nyc landfall

hooralph
hooralph

Can we agree the worst local impact from this storm might be Cuomo grandstanding for one last briefing?

BxEngine
BxEngine

Since Long Island is further away from NYC than I am, and ive been told that im not part of this subforum…this storm wont be hitting this subforum, and all subsequent posts will be removed.    

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 8/21/2021 at 3:16 AM, jm1220 said:

This might really nudge east but I wouldn’t base that on the Nam. Very subtle interactions will shift the track. 

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a butterfly farting in China could affect this track for all we know.

The margin of error here is pretty large given the limited lead time, all we can really say is somewhere between Jersey shore and Cape Cod with emphasis on somewhere between Jones Beach and Montauk I'd say.

 

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Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Posted
Posted
  On 8/21/2021 at 3:26 AM, NorthShoreWx said:

Too many week + long power outages here in recent years.  I'm a little excited, but it's just not the same as it used to be.  FYI, for those fortunate enough to live elsewhere, Long Island lags behind most third world countries when it comes to the power grid. 

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14 years in Massapequa, the rest of my life in Texas, a week plus no power each hurricane, rolling blackouts for a once every 30 year cold spell (it is rare, but people know we'll have those cold spells), Long Island is not as third world as we are.  Wind farms in Iowa work in Winter, and as gas turbines make most of the electricity, and most Texans in cold weather use natural gas heat, creating shortages, well, 3 days below freezing and half of those 3 days w/o power, we're behind.

 

Texas Ed M.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 8/21/2021 at 3:38 AM, JonClaw said:

Thanks EAS for the heart attack this evening...

NYC now under a storm surge warning and TS warning.

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I got one of those too.  My first one!  Annoyed the hell out of me because it interrupted the Yankees game and I missed them scoring a few runs lol.  Anyhow. looks like they might be considering evacuating Fire Island?

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted

I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. 

I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. 

It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
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  On 8/21/2021 at 3:42 AM, USCG RS said:

I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. 

I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. 

It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. 

Expand  

Imo unless you're on the east side of this storm it's just a rainy day until you get to inland areas near streams and rivers and then it's a big big problem.  So if this storm ends up east of LI the only areas that should worry are inland (outside our subforum) and maybe low lying areas on LI sound. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
  On 8/21/2021 at 3:47 AM, Rjay said:

Imo unless you're on the east side of this storm it's just a rainy day until you get to inland areas near streams and rivers and then it's a big big problem.  So if this storm ends up east of LI the only areas that should worry are inland (outside our subforum) and maybe low lying areas on LI sound. 

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Seriously, keep the east ticks going. There would still be tree/power line damage and some flooding with being on the west side since we’ve been so wet over the summer and it won’t take much wind to knock trees down but its beyond better than the east side. 

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
  On 8/21/2021 at 3:51 AM, jm1220 said:

Seriously, keep the east ticks going. There would still be tree/power line damage and some flooding with being on the west side since we’ve been so wet over the summer and it won’t take much wind to knock trees down but its beyond better than the east side. 

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I don't think there will be any winds over 50mph on the west side of this but I supposed we'll see. 

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
Posted
  On 8/21/2021 at 3:47 AM, Rjay said:

inland (outside our subforum)

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:(

  On 8/21/2021 at 3:48 AM, sferic said:

What are the chances of a low end Cat 2? Is that in the realm of possibility?

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The window for anything more than a mid-range Cat 1 is closing, if it hasn't already. Recon and sat loops show the LLC still decoupled from coldest cloud tops. By the time it gets some semblance of structural organization, it'll start running into SST and shear issues once again.

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HeadInTheClouds

HeadInTheClouds

Posted
Posted
  On 8/21/2021 at 4:05 AM, MJO812 said:

This could easily trend back west tomorrow 

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I know it can but why make the changes tonight. Nam and rgem had trended east as did the gfs a little later, plus euro is a big run tonight as well. I just don't understand why they made that westward shift at 11pm instead of waiting for 5am update. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
  On 8/21/2021 at 3:42 AM, USCG RS said:

I stand by my C LI. I think this is going to be a hard hit and right into the Sayville area. East side is winds, surge and heavy rain. West is a heck of a lot of rain. Then there is the stall. This is a potential disaster in the making. 

I try to be conservative. I try to not raise an alarm. This is not one of those times I can afford to be more measured. 

It is time to be prepared. Henri is beginning to get its act together and a quick bout of intensification over the gulf stream could spell disaster for LI/SNE. 

Expand  

If this stalls somewhat north of the area, wouldn't it mean that's where the most rain will be?  Let's say it stalls in the Catskills, would we be out of the heavy rainfall when it stalls there?

 

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