Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[qg_omega]

TS warning for 10 to 15 mph winds

WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
      possible
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph

[Rjay]

The hurricane warning for my part of the county does not even sniff the hurricane wind criteria 

Hurricane Warning means hurricane-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Lindenhurst - Sayville - Patchogue * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning until early Monday morning 
 

[Snowlover11]

under a ts warning for 10-15 mph winds, gusts to 25.

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The hurricane warning for my part of the county does not even sniff the hurricane wind criteria 

Hurricane Warning means hurricane-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Lindenhurst - Sayville - Patchogue * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning until early Monday morning 
 

This was the same for the watch. It had lower winds. 

They are giving the headlines to prepare the population, while officially forecasting a tropical storm impact. 

[HailMan06]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow nearly fully barotropic and warm-core.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

This was the same for the watch. It had lower winds. 

They are giving the headlines to prepare the population, while officially forecasting a tropical storm impact. 

Then it's a tropical storm warning.  These warnings are supposed to have meaning.   

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Then it's a tropical storm warning.  These warnings are supposed to have meaning.   

Supposed to. But everything is CYA nowadays. 

I actually agree with the hurricane warning, because I believe it will hit as a hurricane, however, this is a CYA Warning

[Dark Star]

30 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Got an alert for the Storm Surge Warning but not the Hurricane Warning, I’m about as inland as can be for LI.

I was tracking winds during Sandy and they began falling as it approached.  However, that turn inland brought with it the storm surge, which unfortunately does not dissipate as rapidly as the winds do.  So it will depend on which side of the "remnants" of the storm that you are on

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Supposed to. But everything is CYA nowadays. 

I actually agree with the hurricane warning, because I believe it will hit as a hurricane, however, this is a CYA Warning

I agree with the warning too but they don't seem to think my area meets the criteria so....

[Eduardo]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The hurricane warning for my part of the county does not even sniff the hurricane wind criteria 

Hurricane Warning means hurricane-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Lindenhurst - Sayville - Patchogue * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning until early Monday morning 
 

The NHC’s Hurricane-Warning criteria are definitely met, even if the point-and-click forecast doesn’t show it yet.  I feel like the point-and-click forecasts lag a bit until local NWS offices and the NHC begin more closely coordinating their estimates.  This happened with Isaias too, IIRC.  Those numbers’ll come up a bit tonight, methinks.

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Then it's a tropical storm warning.  These warnings are supposed to have meaning.   

These warnings are insane, can’t be a TS warning for 10 to 15 mph winds

[Rtd208]

Tropical Storm Watch in effect here.

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

The NHC’s Hurricane-Warning criteria are definitely met, even if the point-and-click forecast doesn’t show it yet.  I feel like the point-and-click forecasts lag a bit until local NWS offices and the NHC begin more closely coordinating their estimates.  This happened with Isaias too, IIRC.  Those numbers’ll come up a bit tonight, methinks.

NHC issues the warning. The NWS Upton puts out the local forecast for the warning and they seem to disagree.  At least I think that's how it works.  Idk. 

 This wasn't from the point and click.  It was from my actual hurricane warning statement.  

[LoboLeader1]

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Rgem is east...makes landfall around the twin forks but moves west eventually to bergen county

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem is east...makes landfall around the twin forks but moves west eventually to bergen county

If it keeps struggling like this it might stay east and hit Block Island like the last HWRF shows. Still lots of uncertainty here. I think these crazy NJ tracks are about done though. Good-I’ll take 5” of rain over 90mph wind gusts and big surge. Let my area be on the west side of these for once. 

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rgem is east...makes landfall around the twin forks but moves west eventually to bergen county

The rgem can shove it

 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If it keeps struggling like this it might stay east and hit Block Island like the last HWRF shows. Still lots of uncertainty here. I think these crazy NJ tracks are about done though. Good-I’ll take 5” of rain over 90mph wind gusts and big surge. Let my area be on the west side of these for once. 

Same. 

Most of the models haven't been consistent and a few (cmc, rgem and euro) have been pretty bad.  So I'm still not really sure where exactly this storm is going.  Somewhere in Suffolk would be my best guess.  Possibly as far east as Block Island.

[justinj]

40 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Where in NJ are you?

I’m on Long Island 

[SnoSki14]

Gfs ticking stronger and west. 

[Rjay]

[nycsnow]

Gfs still unimpressive if you’re west of eastern Long Island but it’s Def trending west 

[HailMan06]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks one of rare cases of a hurricane not attached to a stalled frontal zone in New England. The poleward outflow channel usually extends far to the north of these landfalling tropical cyclones. It must be related to the phase with the closed low to our SW.

 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If it keeps struggling like this it might stay east and hit Block Island like the last HWRF shows. Still lots of uncertainty here. I think these crazy NJ tracks are about done though. Good-I’ll take 5” of rain over 90mph wind gusts and big surge. Let my area be on the west side of these for once. 

Tomorrow is really the day for any big instensification.  If it’s still a 70 mph storm tomorrow night then it’s not going to be nearly as bad 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs still unimpressive if you’re west of eastern Long Island but it’s Def trending west 

There's still quite a spread though ensembles have been shifting west.

Forecasting the interaction with the closed low is very difficult. We really won't know till tomorrow what's gonna happen.

C/E LI into CT/RI is my best guess.

[RippleEffect]

I guess it’ll take another set of runs to be decently certain where this storm is headed. By tomorrow night we should know for sure

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's still quite a spread though ensembles have been shifting west.

Forecasting the interaction with the closed low is very difficult. We really won't know till tomorrow what's gonna happen.

C/E LI into CT/RI is my best guess.

Yup, that low can still easily nudge it east as much as tug it west. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

 

While Juan was a much stronger system, it also had a lack of frontal structure for such a far north hurricane.

[NJwx85]

I'm down in Central Florida. Have been here since Saturday. Leaving next Saturday. Go figure that we would have a better chance of a hurricane in New York while I'm away than here in Florida. 

[Eduardo]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm down in Central Florida. Have been here since Saturday. Leaving next Saturday. Go figure that we would have a better chance of a hurricane in New York while I'm away than here in Florida. 

I actually just got back to JFK from Bermuda.  Henri is on my tail!