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Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021


wdrag
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One important thing to point out is that this storm has consistently been on the southwest side of pretty much all guidance.  It's one thing to follow model trends but actual observations are just as, if not more important!  I don't think NYC/NJ is out of the woods yet by any means.  Keep an eye on the movement of Henri over the next 12-24 hours....

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

HRRR is my baseline for 12z Sunday... we'll seeif it ends up much further east over BID?, or somewhere between.

These are the 48 hr gusts of the 12z op HRRR for 12z Sunday.

 

LOTS of room for error. Follow NHC-NWS.

 

Screen Shot 2021-08-20 at 4.30.05 PM.png

Added the 18z/20 HRRR wind gusts for 10A Sunday and also the total QPF.  HRRR, EC and GGEM will need to trend east to avoid 'pockets' of damaging wind and serious flooding. 

Screen Shot 2021-08-20 at 4.37.21 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-08-20 at 4.36.40 PM.png

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I was in the Navy and didn't even know Gloria happened until later, but I was in Nassau Shores, Massapequa for 1976 75 mph Hurricane Belle, and that killed electricity for 2 days and ruined the food in the fridge, and uprooted trees.  Weeping willows especially.  If not cut up, they lived on their sides.  We evacuated to North Massapequa, friends from my Dad's job, the Harkins.  They had cable, was about to see an R rated movie on HBO when the power went out.  First time I'd ever seen cable.

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