Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[jm1220]

Just now, David-LI said:

Canadian with a landfall in Central Long Island. Noting that it started farily week.

I’d monitor the hurricane models more for strength. They show a strong TS most likely at landfall. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

wow UK has held firm for awhile now

 

That's the Canadian 

[Rjay]

Gefs

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It continues NNW into New England. The GFS has hurricane gusts over Eastern Long Island. The torrential rainfall is located along and west of the track.

 

Chris where would be the best of both worlds- getting both lots of rain and high winds?

 

[Rjay]

[Sn0waddict]

Looks much weaker than previous runs. So there is that I guess lol

[Rjay]

[SnowGoose69]

Those crazy UKIE tracks would cause stronger winds in BDR than they would FRG because it basically keeps the E quad in coastal CT while WRN LI would stay WSW of the center.

[forkyfork]

eastern nassau 

[Rjay]

Just now, forkyfork said:

eastern nassau 

About the worst possible spot for my location 

[David-LI]

If it makes landfall in Nassau County as Ukie shows I guess I'll have some gusts followed by calm winds while the center of storm passes over us.

[David-LI]

[Rjay]

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It continues NNW into New England. The GFS has hurricane gusts over Eastern Long Island. The torrential rainfall is located along and west of the track.

 

How do you feel about the models tracking it into the Catskills?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

wow doesn't this look like the Canadian?

and UK from last night

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

About the worst possible spot for my location 

Yeah we pretty much want to hope the UKIE/higher res ideas are bunk.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Those crazy UKIE tracks would cause stronger winds in BDR than they would FRG because it basically keeps the E quad in coastal CT while WRN LI would stay WSW of the center.

and heaviest rainfall in NW NJ

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah we pretty much want to hope the UKIE/higher res ideas are bunk.

shouldn't high res be better because they're high resolution?

 

[bluewave]

There were a group of 6z EPS tracks which were further west like the UKMET and CMC. So a highly anticipated Euro and EPS run coming up. We’ll find out if the 12z GFS was exhibiting its eastern bias. 

 

[Sn0waddict]

HMON into NJ it would appear.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

HMON into NJ it would appear.

 

I have no idea if that model is any good...my vague memory is its not and spits out stupid things like that.  The HWRF is usually better

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There were a group of 6z EPS tracks which were further west like the UKMET and CMC. So a highly anticipated Euro and EPS run coming up. We’ll find out if the 12z GFS was exhibiting its eastern bias. 

 

I thought the GFS had a western bias, because remember a few days ago it was well west too.

 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I have no idea if that model is any good...my vague memory is its not and spits out stupid things like that.  The HWRF is usually better

It’s running as we speak

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought the GFS had a western bias, because remember a few days ago it was well west too.

 

On tropicals who knows.  The new GFS has tended to have less of an east bias overall.  I do think its idea of a straight in due N movement is wrong...there will be some sort of NW movement.  That is why I think I go with an LF right now near E Quogue to Hampton Bays.  

[Sn0waddict]

HWRF looks rather east so far lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

HWRF looks rather east so far lol

Slower and weaker as well

[USCG RS]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah we pretty much want to hope the UKIE/higher res ideas are bunk.

Given the synoptic set up, I would think they have the right idea... Thoughts? 

[hawkeye_wx]

The 12z HWRF never drops Henri below the 980s.  A few to several runs ago it was taking it down to the 960s, 950s, or even 940s.  It was never going to drop that low, but the HWRF is oddly now among the weakest models.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought the GFS had a western bias, because remember a few days ago it was well west too.

 

It’s been tough to bet against more westerly tracks with record WAR.

 

[dmillz25]

The awkward silence before the Euro