Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[Hc7]

I have a feeling more and more models are going to start to agree with a westward shift as the storm starts to pick up intensity today/tomorrow, some of which have already picked up on such a trend due to forecasting Henri strengthening more. Should have a pretty good idea after the next 24 hours and getting flight data for the models to work with as it intensifies. All I know is im legitimately worried as a Nassau resident for the first time in a while, this storm has barely been talked about by the media here and theres been equally as little response by state officials, I think a lot of people are going to get caught off guard this weekend when theyre  told they have maybe a little over a day to prepare for a hurricane. A lot of people here lost power/internet for 4-6 days or more from Isias alone and that was basically just a short duration wind event, the infrastructure and state officials are going to be tested big time here, and my faith in them is already near zero.

[kat5hurricane]

50 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

This is only going to come so far west. The short wave or trough in the mid-levels will kick this north soon.

While true initially, a lot of models have it hooking northwest at this latitude.

[TriPol]

Did we get NAM'd?

[David-LI]

NAM 12k going for a Long Island landfall. Hope watches go out today so people that watch the news this afternoon and evening can be alert.

[JTA66]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's interesting to see a TC with a westerly component even at landfall at our latitude.  The pre-existing conditions are nowhere as anomalous as they were with Sandy.  Is this something we're going to be seeing more of with slowing down of the jet stream and all the other things we've been discussing?  There are parallels in history for individual events (like the 1903 ACY hurricane) but taken as a collective, I don't think there has been a period of recorded history that has seen so many storms landfalling this far west.

 

I was thinking about this the other day and obviously I need to dig into the archives, but it does seems the "slow and stall" scenario is becoming more common in recent years -- Harvey, Mathew, Dorian. 

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

NAM 12k going for a Long Island landfall. Hope watches go out today so people that watch the news this afternoon and evening can be alert.

Watches went up this morning already for the area.

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I doubt the NHC will adjust their track and resultant warnings too much today. If the far west trend is real then maybe tomorrow 

they might because it affects a lot more people now, I would expect it by 5 PM since it's Friday.....

 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the trends continue at 12z I would at least extend the hurricane watch to Sandy Hook. West of the track won’t have anywhere near the wind impact of places east but the 30 mile difference in track to the west could bring it into NYC. Keep in mind also with the wet ground the wind will cause a ton of tree damage. Likewise with Isaias there was almost no rain over LI but lots of wind and tree damage. The talking point after wasn’t how NJ got 3-5” rain. 

I would too, it's Friday get away day and the west trend isn't just real it's obvious.  Looks like this is going to affect  a lot more people now, not just the huts on the east end and the huts on cape cod and the islands 

 

[crossbowftw3]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Did we get NAM'd?

Very much so. Not even on the same plausible scale of what will be reality with this storm  

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

NAM 12k going for a Long Island landfall. Hope watches go out today so people that watch the news this afternoon and evening can be alert.

watches are out.  went out at 5am.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Did we get NAM'd?

several times now, this sort of reminds me of how we got NAMd in January  2016 and you know how that turned out.....

 

[jconsor]

 

[sferic]

19 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

You can’t ever really use the NAM 3k for TC genesis and intensification. 

Being in SW Nassau county presently, glad I have my 12,000watt Back up gen newly hooked up

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Very much so. Not even on the same plausible scale of what will be reality with this storm  

not intensity but the track looks legit

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jconsor said:

 

so the NAM is actually more in line with upper air obs and samplings of the ridge?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

Being in SW Nassau county presently, glad I have my 12,000watt Back up gen newly hooked up

welcome back!

 

[jconsor]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

so the NAM is actually more in line with upper air obs and samplings of the ridge?

 

Yes

[David-LI]

I know it's the NAM and probably overdone but Pivotal weather and Tropicaltidbits show a difference of about 20mb on the NAM3k at the same time Sunday. Different calculations?

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, David-LI said:

I know it's the NAM and probably overdone but Pivotal weather and Tropicaltidbits show a difference of about 20mb on the NAM3k at the same time Sunday. Different calculations?

Here’s why the 3k cannot be used for TCs: 

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1217839589836099586?s=21

 

[forkyfork]

25 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Uh oh

i'm not saying it's going to happen but we're inside the envelope now and there's been a west trend

[Tatamy]

23 minutes ago, David-LI said:

NAM 12k going for a Long Island landfall. Hope watches go out today so people that watch the news this afternoon and evening can be alert.

Makes landfall in the Hamptons.

[dmillz25]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i'm not saying it's going to happen but we're inside the envelope now and there's been a west trend

Oh I understand but you saying that gives some pause and something to keep an eye on

[hudsonvalley21]

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HENRI STEADY IN STRENGTH... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 73.7W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been extended slightly westward to Flushing, New York, including adjacent areas of western Long Island Sound and the East River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk * Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk * New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York * West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York * West of New Haven Connecticut

[David-LI]

Looks like the center explodes in the last hour

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[sferic]

If Henri would veer to and make landfall between Perth Amboy and Sand Hook, would NYC/LI experience surge since it would be in the right side quadrant? If so, would this be a similar track to Sandy?

[hudsonvalley21]

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri this morning and based on the flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data, the initial intensity is still around 55 kt. The minimum pressure has also been relatively steady. The low-level center of Henri is located close to the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection, and the vortex is still not vertically aligned due to 20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Although the intensity of Henri has not changed much during the past couple of days, satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well- established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate that Henri is poised to strengthen. There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine.

[David-LI]

Definitely a surge. Not similar track to Sandy. Sandy made a NJ landfall.

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

If Henri would veer to and make landfall between Perth Amboy and Sand Hook, would NYC/LI experience surge since it would be in the right side quadrant? If so, would this be a similar track to Sandy?

Good to hear from you again first of all. Second, Sandy comparisons cannot necessarily be entertained, but a minimal hurricane anywhere close to NYC is highly noteworthy all the same 

[stockmanjr]

Is this the first time that Flushing was used as a breakpoint for a Storm Surge Watch? I don't think I've ever seen them use Flushing before. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, sferic said:

If Henri would veer to and make landfall between Perth Amboy and Sand Hook, would NYC/LI experience surge since it would be in the right side quadrant? If so, would this be a similar track to Sandy?

Anyone to the right of the track would get a nasty surge. How high is uncertain because of how intense the storm will get, how large in size, forward movement speed and low/high tide but enough to cause some major flooding. Winds are also much higher to the right of the track so if it makes landfall as a 75mph storm, gusts would probably reach 90-95mph. There would be little rain other than squalls, the heavy rain would be west of the track with much less surge and wind. Sandy was a huge sized storm which worsened the surge and it struck Atlantic City.