Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Central LI

 

Similar to the 06z NAM

[mob1]

While wind and surge will likely be confined to eastern LI, we could have a formidable flooding event for other parts of the area. Slow moving tropical systems are trouble, we just need to hone in to where the heaviest rains will set up. 

[Tatamy]

06z Euro goes into southern RI.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, mob1 said:

While wind and surge will likely be confined to eastern LI, we could have a formidable flooding event for other parts of the area. Slow moving tropical systems are trouble, we just need to hone in to where the heaviest rains will set up. 

dont think wind will be confined to eastern LI, I was looking at map projections and we have 30 mph sustained winds all the way to western nassau and 2-4 ft of surge too and thats with the current NHC track not on the western leaning models which seem to be where the majority of the guidance is now.

 

[BxEngine]

Since Long Island is further away from NYC than I am, and ive been told that im not part of this subforum…this storm wont be hitting this subforum, and all subsequent posts will be removed.
 

 

[wdrag]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This isn't going to go extra tropical up here. The wind field is going to be very tight. 

We are now almost to a point where you have to consider blended model arc winds and add 15% for the gusts. All the west intense modeling with fully leaves trees is big damage.  Need  to see models ratchet down and further east.   Won’t be able to add much cogent comment for a few hours

[Tatamy]

13 minutes ago, mob1 said:

While wind and surge will likely be confined to eastern LI, we could have a formidable flooding event for other parts of the area. Slow moving tropical systems are trouble, we just need to hone in to where the heaviest rains will set up. 

Not entirely correct.  Wind will be more of a factor on eastern LI.  All coastal areas will be be at some degree of risk from storm surge impacts.  NWS is expecting up to a 2’ foot storm surge along the south shore of Nassau to 3’ out in the Hamptons.  This is why they have issued a storm surge watch.

[bluewave]

This is just another example of how extreme the WAR has become. Tropical cyclones that pass within 200 miles of Bermuda usually go OTS. Henri is on track to become the first tropical cyclone to landfall west of Cape Cod. Hermine in 2004 and another weak system in 1923 were the only two storms to impact Cape Cod. 
 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is just another example of how extreme the WAR has become. Tropical cyclones that pass within 200 miles of Bermuda usually go OTS. Henri is on track to become the first tropical cyclone to landfall west of Cape Cod. Hermine in 2004 and another weak system in 1923 were the onky two storms to impact Cape Cod. 
 

This still has a chance of landfalling in Central to Eastern LI

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This still has a chance of landfalling in Central to Eastern LI

 

That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county. 

What I find fascinating is that this storm will eventually tug west without a huge trough to our west .

[MJO812]

Another shift west by hurricane models

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

06z Euro goes into southern RI.

That’s another bump west 0z was near Martha vn 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What I find fascinating is that this storm will eventually tug west without a huge trough to our west .

The further west models merge with the small closed low in VA sooner.

[HailMan06]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Another shift west by hurricane models

Those western models would make the QPF queens in Jersey happy.

[Rjay]

The rgem has trended hundreds of miles west of the last few runs

 

 

[Rjay]

This was the rgem 24 hours ago and headed to the NE

 

[Brian5671]

Global vs mesos right now.   Global all further east although euro bumped west on last run. 

[HailMan06]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The rgem has trended hundreds of miles west of the last few runs

 

 

You can see how tropical the storm is with the isobars lining up well with the 500mb heights.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Global vs mesos right now.   Global all further east although euro bumped west on last run. 

Gfs also bumped west

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

We are now almost to a point where you have to consider blended model arc winds and add 15% for the gusts. All the west intense modeling with fully leaves trees is big damage.  Need  to see models ratchet down and further east.   Won’t be able to add much cogent comment for a few hours

15% for gusts is a good number, so for western Nassau County that would be 30 mph sustained with tropical storm force gusts and thats on the old NHC track which will likely need to be adjusted west.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Global vs mesos right now.   Global all further east although euro bumped west on last run. 

it all has to do with how strong the storm gets, the stronger the further west

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The rgem has trended hundreds of miles west of the last few runs

 

 

interesting that many models have a strong westerly component to motion even after landfall

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county. 

Based on latest trends I would say odds of landfall in Long Island are higher than they are east of there.

 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Not entirely correct.  Wind will be more of a factor on eastern LI.  All coastal areas will be be at some degree of risk from storm surge impacts.  NWS is expecting up to a 2’ foot storm surge along the south shore of Nassau to 3’ out in the Hamptons.  This is why they have issued a storm surge watch.

hmmm I saw 2-4 ft for Nassau and 3-5 feet for Suffolk

and depends what you mean by winds, 30 mph winds sustained and tropical storm force gusts for Nassau are up there and thats on the old forecast track which will likely be adjusted west.

 

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Based on latest trends I would say odds of landfall in Long Island are higher than they are east of there.

 

W-C LI is probably the furthest west this can get. Don’t see a direct NYC LF but even a landfall near ISP gets NYC proper into TS conditions but likely not much further west than that 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Based on latest trends I would say odds of landfall in Long Island are higher than they are east of there.

 

Yeah I’m beginning to think this comes in somewhere maybe between Patchogue and Montauk  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I’m beginning to think this comes in somewhere maybe between Patchogue and Montauk  

The loop is also fascinating. Places to the west will get alot of rain. 

[SnoSki14]

Storm looks west of NHC track. LLC near 74W.

Landfall closer to NYC wouldn't surprise me. Storm slows down and loops on approach which means heavy flooding & coastal impacts. 

How severe will depend on how strong Henri gets. A Category 2+ at peak strength likely weakening to 80-85 mph Cat 1 is possible. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Based on latest trends I would say odds of landfall in Long Island are higher than they are east of there.

 

I agree. Should be an interesting next few model runs. Remember the Euro has been underestimating the the WAR. It didn’t start showing Fred going further to our west until practically nowcast time.