Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Reading this thread I can’t figure out if this is going to a destruction fest or a breezy day? Should be pretty light, a few problems in a small zone but for 90% of us it will be just a breezy rainy day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Lol which one is Kevin? The one saying about no shear? The king of Mount Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Seems like lots of changes the past couple of hours with Henri's structure. It looked like lots of dry air was eroding the CDO but in the last hour the circulation is tightening up. For the first time you can really see how the inner core is getting it's act together. Could this be the start of RI? HHunters are enroute. Will be interesting to see what they find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=vis You can see a decent sized eye trying to clear just a bit on the vis. Outflow is improving on the NW side as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Climate hasn't changed that much it seems. Storm would have to be a real monster already and moving like a freight train to give the impacts some people seem to be looking for this far to the north. We are in the middle of a record streak of 70+ degree dewpoint days though, storm should be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Looks like a tropical storm about to hit SNE to me. Yes. I think some tunnel vision goin on in here today. It hasn't organized. It was forecast to hit as a TS, and it sure seems like that's going to be the case unless it strengthens significantly. With that being said.... A slow moving tropical storm is still going to cause major issues. Don't get me wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 LOL the discrepancy on who cares about this storm is as diverse as the modeled LF tracks. In all seriousness there's probably much more interest in what this storm does for those of us in the coastal areas, especially areas that may end up east of the eye, then those further inland where it will be certainly falling apart pretty quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, eyewall said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=vis You can see a decent sized eye trying to clear just a bit on the vis. Outflow is improving on the NW side as well. Yup. We eye .. Eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are still a few analyzing every latest sat image convincing themselves that it's about to "take off"...lol Its always been going to be a bad nor Easter. I’d rather see it transitioning faster to get the more typical wind field expansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said: Climate hasn't changed that much it seems. Storm would have to be a real monster already and moving like a freight train to give the impacts some people seem to be looking for this far to the north. We are in the middle of a record streak of 70+ degree dewpoint days though, storm should be happy with that. The system was never likely to encounter the pristine conditions needed in the upper atmosphere to recover entirely from being nearly gutted by that hostile encounter with shear. It was too far north. Gulf stream takes care of the fuel at the surface, but entire exhaust system and a significant portion of the mositure transport that feeds these giant heat engines takes place aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I’d rather see it transitioning faster to get the more typical wind field expansion. Bingo....that was always our only avenue to history with Henri, and it too looks to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Still has 12-15 hrs of favorable SST's, then it's probably just maintaining strength at a minimal Cat 1 at landfall. I'm heading down to inlaws in Portsmouth, RI then prolly head down to either Point Judith, or Watch Hill. Will prolly be the biggest tropical system I'll experience to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, MarkO said: Still has 12-15 hrs of favorable SST's, then it's probably just maintaining strength at a minimal Cat 1 at landfall. I'm heading down to inlaws in Portsmouth, RI then prolly head down to either Point Judith, or Watch Hill. Will prolly be the biggest tropical system I'll experience to date. They might close off some roads into those spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris9277 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m going to guess an inch of rain here and gusts to 35 I would guess 3-4 inches of rain here and guests to 60-65 for most of Eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Man, for the sake of quality threads I hope the next tropical system is not within 3 universes of New England. 4 2 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The evacuation of energy is every bit as important as the ingest, just the same as it is with respect to human beings. This is why you can't just stare at SST charts in a vacuum to inform forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Man, for the sake of quality threads I hope the next tropical system is not within 3 universes of New England. Thanks for this quality post 6 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Yes. I think some tunnel vision goin on in here today. It hasn't organized. It was forecast to hit as a TS, and it sure seems like that's going to be the case unless it strengthens significantly. With that being said.... A slow moving tropical storm is still going to cause major issues. Don't get me wrong I would have agreed with you up until around noon. Now it definitely looks like it's getting it's act together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Man, for the sake of quality threads I hope the next tropical system is not within 3 universes of New England. I hope I never come within 3 universes of the State of Tennessee 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I would have agreed with you up until around noon. Now it definitely looks like it's getting it's act together. It does figure the eye comes out now. But I'm still not seeing cooling tops and significant intensification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, eyewall said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=08L&product=vis You can see a decent sized eye trying to clear just a bit on the vis. Outflow is improving on the NW side as well. I don't think that's an eye... I think that's the convection eroding and exposing the LLC, which if that's the case is not a good sign for intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I hope I never come within 3 universes of the State of Tennessee That’s fair, tho Memphis and Nashville have great food and music scenes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are still a few analyzing every latest sat image convincing themselves that it's about to "take off"...lol Its always been going to be a bad nor Easter. Don't tell Charlie Parker that. 13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Man, for the sake of quality threads I hope the next tropical system is not within 3 universes of New England. LOL.....you should see us in winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I'll do Final this evening, but I am pretty comfy with the going forecast...mainly just an update to include rainfall totals and perhaps a tickle east...I'm good with the intensity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Don't tell Charlie Parker that. LOL.....you should see us in winter. I would say we’ll go into their subforum this winter and laugh at their weenie posts chasing a few inches of snow, but we do that here too. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I would say we’ll go into their subforum this winter and laugh at their weenie posts chasing a few inches of snow, but we do that here too. lol A few inches????? Nah we chase half inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 People acting like this was supposed to hit us as a category 2. Right now there is very strong consensus that this either goes into eastern LI and hooks into southern CT or into RI as a high-end tropical storm. If what the NHC has verifies (70 mph with higher gusts) into Madison, CT the degree of power outages and damage (especially coast) is going to be very significant. as for the weakening yes the waters outside the Gulf Stream aren’t supportive for intensification but they’re still into the 70’s…this thing just isn’t going to weaken and poof into nothing. Even if it came into CT with winds of 55-60 with higher gusts…power outages and damage will still be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 35 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Should be pretty light, a few problems in a small zone but for 90% of us it will be just a breezy rainy day. 29 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Yes. I think some tunnel vision goin on in here today. It hasn't organized. It was forecast to hit as a TS, and it sure seems like that's going to be the case unless it strengthens significantly. With that being said.... A slow moving tropical storm is still going to cause major issues. Don't get me wrong Major issues for that 10%, but the rest of us just some summer breeze and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaun Curry Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: LOL the discrepancy on who cares about this storm is as diverse as the modeled LF tracks. In all seriousness there's probably much more interest in what this storm does for those of us in the coastal areas, especially areas that may end up east of the eye, then those further inland where it will be certainly falling apart pretty quickly. Agreed! Sitting here in South Kingstown, I can say that it has been interesting to follow this storm but I can't say I'm looking forward to its arrival IMBY. Every tree in my yard is a potential terrorist at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Euro looks like its showing ET, broadened 925mb winds vs 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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