ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: RGEM a bit west from 6z. Now with a BID track. That's my thinking in the end Yeah I’m leaning BID right now into WST or GON. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I can't wait for this to track over RI and see what Kev has to say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I still favor maybe BID to GON landfall. Question is what happens after. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Quote Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt. The steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri. This pattern should cause the storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed by a slight bend to the left on Sunday. The latest run of the GFS has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on Sunday. However, users are reminded to not focus on the center itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially to the east. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the consensus aids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Are you on Fisher's right now? No, work needed me in New Haven for the storm. Our man @StormSurgeis on the case at Fishers though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Can someone help me out? Maybe I'm losing it, but all the point and clicks on the cape don't have a tropical storm warning. The NHC maps show them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I still favor maybe BID to GON landfall. Question is what happens after. Nw to BDL and then Down the Mass Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoth said: No, work needed me in New Haven for the storm. Our man @StormSurgeis on the case at Fishers though. Nice. Seems like a prime spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I’m leaning BID right now into WST or GON. 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I still favor maybe BID to GON landfall. Question is what happens after. What causes the westward bias of some.of these models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Can someone help me out? Maybe I'm losing it, but all the point and clicks on the cape don't have a tropical storm warning. The NHC maps show them. Like where on the cape? I see hurr and ts warnings in the point clicks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Can someone help me out? Maybe I'm losing it, but all the point and clicks on the cape don't have a tropical storm warning. The NHC maps show them. Yeah. It’s odd. I guess it will be delayed a few minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 This was last year's track model verification for those curious. Gfs outperformed the euro at most lead times. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Like where on the cape? I see hurr and ts warnings in the point clicks. Looks like they just put it in a minute ago. I refreshed the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Got me too with the graphics. I was just looking back on the east trend that started around 18z and tried to figure out why the NHC moved it west and have not adjusted east. My more emotionally regulated thought was in uncertainty, if it is close to such a large population center, sit on it and get everyone prepared until more confidence in the alternative to avoid the mental whiplash/windshield wiper effect. Yeah... the NHC agenda is entirely disconnected and not apart of the IMC ( industrial media complex) - lol. I am not impugning NHC at all. In fact, their hands are cuffed -wtf are they supposed to do. They are charged with informing of these sort of calamities to a society with dimmed hearing because the din of pop cultural stimulus has it that no one can really hear the "urgency" if they are even looking. So yeah, sit and wait and ... add 5 mph so that hurricane can take the podium and the flashing lights and "Twits" in the audience will look up from their iPhone - proverbially speaking. I wish some RECON pilot would spill the 'soft conspiracy' that they are routinely phoning in 70 and getting 80 out of NHC's decision makers but, that's sci-fi paranoid talk... ( seriously, don't take that j/k) anyway, the IMC is purely about money and needs some sort of non competitive but financed ( somehow ) media alternative - such that people can choose from it, or CNN/FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS fab five of marketing stimulus oil for lubing their Machiavellian economic engine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Like where on the cape? I see hurr and ts warnings in the point clicks. Hyannis Airport only has TS Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Time to upgrade the thread title. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Like where on the cape? I see hurr and ts warnings in the point clicks. Sometimes it can take forever to populate fully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We've seen them not move the cone as well, saying the current cone covers the uncertainty. Pretty wide landfall area within that cone but its covered. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Hyannis Airport only has TS Warning Aren’t they only under a TS warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What causes the westward bias of some.of these models? IMHO, (and this is probably over-simplified), if Henri is stronger, it gets pulled farther west by the cut-off low. If it's weaker, it stays a little farther east. I'm just basing this on the modeling trends over the last 36 hours... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Aren’t they only under a TS warning? Yep I misread the original post. I thought they were looking for Hurricane warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 It's a funny looking storm on satellite. Almost looks like the ULL is punching into the southern flank and blowing up thunderstorms away from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: IMHO, (and this is probably over-simplified), if Henri is stronger, it gets pulled farther west by the cut-off low. If it's weaker, it stays a little farther east. I'm just basing this on the modeling trends over the last 36 hours... The model strength of the ULL and how far it digs down and also strength intensity. I think if the storm is stronger it may help it get tugged west due to the mid and upper level flow helping to steer the storm along path of least resistance. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: IMHO, (and this is probably over-simplified), if Henri is stronger, it gets pulled farther west by the cut-off low. If it's weaker, it stays a little farther east. I'm just basing this on the modeling trends over the last 36 hours... You in Bristol right now? My daughter is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... the NHC agenda is entirely disconnected and not apart of the IMC ( industrial media complex) - lol. I am not impugning NHC at all. In fact, their hands are cuffed -wtf are they supposed to do. They are charged with informing of these sort of calamities to a society with dimmed hearing because the din of pop cultural stimulus has it that no one can really hear the "urgency" if they are even looking. So yeah, sit and wait and ... add 5 mph so that hurricane can take the podium and the flashing lights and "Twits" in the audience will look up from their iPhone - proverbially speaking. I wish some RECON pilot would spill the 'soft conspiracy' that they are routinely phoning in 70 and getting 80 out of NHC's decision makers but, that's sci-fi paranoid talk... ( seriously, don't take that j/k) anyway, the IMC is purely about money and needs some sort of non competitive but financed ( somehow ) media alternative - such that people can choose from it, or CNN/FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS fab five of marketing stimulus oil for lubing their Machiavellian economic engine. Can you shut the **** up? 4 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What causes the westward bias of some.of these models? Some of the mesoscale models have an overly amplified bias that tended to result in a more W/NW track. I imagine that has some parallels to winter nor’easter biases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: You in Bristol right now? My daughter is. Our son is missing this by a week sadly. One of his roommates is already on campus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Remember the other day when we said “well at least the core of the winds will be small and centered around the eye??”.. good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheticus Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, Quincy said: 12z NSSL WRF still likes the west camp: Right up the William Floyd Parkway. Not hoping for that solution here in Western Suffolk County... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 C LI to HVN . Staying course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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