Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said: On the NAM? Sure . It’s east from 6z but why are you using the NAM for a cane? Expand We look to see if its in line with other guidance and it is with Euro and GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:05 PM, crossbowftw3 said: Fire up the chainsaw because you’ve got a lot of trees to knock down Expand We will certainly lose a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Miser Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:05 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Every single model is east Expand And there's still no evidence of significant strengthening, so... wagons east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said: So you are thinking no wind damage interior CT? Expand Yea those close to the track say IJD to Putnam and below. You may be on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:06 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: We look to see if its in line with other guidance and it is with Euro and GFS Expand While we use NHC and EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Would still probably see widespread 40-50 mph gusts in CT on the NAM solution with greatest winds obviously east. Hours of those winds will bring about damage/power outages. Maybe not 100K+ but still quite a bit. Flooding will be ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:02 PM, DotRat_Wx said: For those of you that are new here, Kev is wishcasting and the east trend is real Expand This might be going into Buzzards Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Can someone explain to me why NHC dropped hurricane watches for the cape? I just felt like that might have been a little bit premature considering now we see this tracking back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: While we use NHC and EPS Expand Less than 24hrs out and your using ensembles? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said: While we use NHC and EPS Expand Medium range forecasting ensemble suites for short term forecasts FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 BID in eye on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:10 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Can someone explain to me why NHC dropped hurricane watches for the cape? I just felt like that might have been a little bit premature considering now we see this tracking back east. Expand They may all be tropical storm warnings by nightfall/overnight... (sarcasm) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Despite the track east the tug to the northwest is there so can’t just discount potential for a landfall as far west from central LI to SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:10 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Can someone explain to me why NHC dropped hurricane watches for the cape? I just felt like that might have been a little bit premature considering now we see this tracking back east. Expand Because there won't be hurricane impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:10 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Can someone explain to me why NHC dropped hurricane watches for the cape? I just felt like that might have been a little bit premature considering now we see this tracking back east. Expand I'm under a TS warning. Not sure if a watch is warranted given it's lack of strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:11 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: BID in eye on NAM Expand No wind damage for Kev and no more damaging tor threat. What’s he got left to hope for, maybe damaging rain? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Nam takes it right over block NW into RI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:11 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: BID in eye on NAM Expand The accordion player melted hard and fast last night over the west trends too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:12 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I'm under a TS warning. Not sure if a watch is warranted given it's lack of strengthening Expand I'm within a baseballs throw of the warning area. S Bristol County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:12 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Because there won't be hurricane impacts. Expand Still.... They don't even have a tropical storm watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:05 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Every single model is east Expand he does have the HRRR still west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:11 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: BID in eye on NAM Expand ASOUTEK. Not locking that it yet..but I think Montauk is the western goal post now. Maybe Buzzards Bay is the Far east post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3km NAM pegs eastern LI for landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:10 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Can someone explain to me why NHC dropped hurricane watches for the cape? I just felt like that might have been a little bit premature considering now we see this tracking back east. Expand Except it’s not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:02 PM, Typhoon Tip said: No one's asking me but .. .I've never been a big fan of that for TC already engaging within a westerlies manifold/capture scenario. That is more evidence - per my own experience - for very big dawgs that have already established their garland subsidence ring, Usually higher cat 4 and 5 beasts. When these ilk then move N and tote their circumvallate with them, they may near fronts. The front may bow out ahead. Or, a capturing upper air troughs may hesitate ..Fuji Wara a little .. like the tug of moon forcing it's gravitational host planet into a wobble. Heh. But that sort of thing. Henri is a pallid over production of fantasy by picking and choosing which-ever model balances plausibility with best intensity - LOL. Slight of hand aside, it's just not strong and it's really too late. Now that it is moving N and entangled in the web of the ridge-trough path, these large planetary structures will subsume and - think limit- development in lieu of integration. Expand Ok sure I hear ya. But will it not still bring lots of rain? Because these rivers is already kind of high today. Fred saturated things quite a bit. I feel like even a tropical depression, a slowing one, with sustained 25mph winds would be cause for concern in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:07 PM, weatherwiz said: Would still probably see widespread 40-50 mph gusts in CT on the NAM solution with greatest winds obviously east. Hours of those winds will bring about damage/power outages. Maybe not 100K+ but still quite a bit. Flooding will be ugly Expand This is the all timer list. If the NAM is right this wouldn’t make the list. Few days ago we were thinking it could be worse than Isaias. Hopefully the trend is right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:13 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Still.... They don't even have a tropical storm watch. Expand Wind impacts look minimal there. They have it covered under storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 If you are looking for wind you have to be along and right of the center of course. As the system becomes extratropical, the wind field will expand even as the max sustained winds decrease. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 On 8/21/2021 at 2:14 PM, Quincy said: 3km NAM pegs eastern LI for landfall Expand And brings it NW into CT. Wind fields expand . All systems a go. I’d honestly like to see know you’re track forecast not where LF is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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