WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 SE Eyewall dropsonde, so it does look like there is an eye trying to develop. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:16ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 21st day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mbCoordinates: 33.8N 72.0WLocation: 225 statute miles (362 km) to the ESE (117°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -27m (-89 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 997mb (29.44 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 24.9°C (77°F) 155° (from the SSE) 44 knots (51 mph) 925mb 656m (2,152 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.3°C (69°F) 180° (from the S) 71 knots (82 mph) 850mb 1,390m (4,560 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 185° (from the S) 61 knots (70 mph) 700mb 3,046m (9,993 ft) 12.0°C (53.6°F) 12.0°C (54°F) 195° (from the SSW) 54 knots (62 mph) Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 13:04Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 33.80N 72.01W- Time: 13:04:02ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 33.87N 72.00W- Time: 13:08:23ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 170° (from the S)- Wind Speed: 58 knots (67 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 185° (from the S)- Wind Speed: 60 knots (69 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 996mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 161 gpm - 11 gpm (528 geo. feet - 36 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)- Wind Speed: 54 knots (62 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 997mb (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 24.9°C (77°F) 935mb 21.2°C (70.2°F) 20.6°C (69°F) 850mb 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 777mb 15.8°C (60.4°F) 15.8°C (60°F) 764mb 16.2°C (61.2°F) 14.2°C (58°F) 697mb Unavailable Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 997mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 44 knots (51 mph) 995mb 155° (from the SSE) 42 knots (48 mph) 993mb 155° (from the SSE) 50 knots (58 mph) 979mb 165° (from the SSE) 62 knots (71 mph) 971mb 165° (from the SSE) 58 knots (67 mph) 963mb 170° (from the S) 62 knots (71 mph) 951mb 180° (from the S) 58 knots (67 mph) 942mb 180° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph) 933mb 180° (from the S) 71 knots (82 mph) 921mb 180° (from the S) 72 knots (83 mph) 901mb 180° (from the S) 64 knots (74 mph) 887mb 180° (from the S) 67 knots (77 mph) 863mb 185° (from the S) 58 knots (67 mph) 850mb 185° (from the S) 61 knots (70 mph) 696mb 195° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I mean that fine is silly after a certain point. What if a 38 comes? It’s not Eversource that is an issue. I get it for a TS, but eventually we will be knocked into the Stone Age and I wouldn’t blame grid companies. Yea. The new infrastructure bill isn’t enough to move us forward either. If we don’t update our power grids and our power source…eventually DIT will get his wish of months in darkness and NewEng peeps smelling like peasant orgies from the 1600s. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Decoupling and then fighting some shear and dry air as it tries to organize. yeah, starting to see some new storms firing up close to the center, lets see if they wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Something to think about. As this goes ET near landfall or shortly after, we may see dry air and breaks developing in the overcast. If that happens we may mix some stronger winds down east of track. You can see the 925 windfield tries to expand at He last second while its weakening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: SE Eyewall dropsonde, so it does look like there is an eye trying to develop. you can see it on sat.. comes and goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you read the tweet thread she later clarifies the 1,000,000 number is regionally and includes Mass and NH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, PowderBeard said: If you read the tweet thread she later clarifies the 1,000,000 number is regionally and includes Mass and NH. Yes I did see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think you’ll be out 4-5 days there That’s manageable and not really my concern. Tree/home damage is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: you can see it on sat.. comes and goes Yep. Eye confirmed. Open to the N. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:21ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 20 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 12:44:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.73N 72.28WB. Center Fix Location: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (120°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 21kts (From the W at 24mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (66.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 12:38:28ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 62kts (From the SSW at 71.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix at 12:00:43ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 56kts (64.4mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (228°) of center fix at 12:46:41ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 298° at 50kts (From the WNW at 57.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 12:49:28ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,459m (8,068ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the SE (140°) from the flight level center at 11:52:24Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see the 925 windfield tries to expand at He last second while its weakening. I noticed that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s manageable and not really my concern. Tree/home damage is. For once you and I are both rooting for an ocean storm to go east. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Here's your steering winds. Buckle up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 SE continues to look impressive as well. FL winds now up with unflagged 75, 78, 79, and 82kt readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 51 minutes ago, Sev said: Next question. Will the ferries be running? They’re more than likely cancelling all of Sunday and maybe into Monday. Same with block island. Even if the storm isn’t dead on they may cancel just due to rough seas alone. Some days they’re up quicker it might be a wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yep. Eye confirmed. Open to the N. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:21ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 20 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 12:44:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.73N 72.28WB. Center Fix Location: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (120°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 21kts (From the W at 24mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (66.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 12:38:28ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 62kts (From the SSW at 71.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix at 12:00:43ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 56kts (64.4mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (228°) of center fix at 12:46:41ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 298° at 50kts (From the WNW at 57.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 12:49:28ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,459m (8,068ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the SE (140°) from the flight level center at 11:52:24Z Mission 10 showing 30sec average of 78 knots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 46 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I’m not quite pulling the trigger on evacuating the region, I’m betting on shelter in place. But, I am taking this seriously. Last I checked minutes ago I am in Willimantic and I am in the NW flank of the storm. That is rain. with Elsa it brought our river, which I live IN, by the way, within a few feet of our window and it raced past. Yes I live IN the river. Not near it. TEXTILE mill. Beautiful building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: SE continues to look impressive as well. FL winds now up with unflagged 75, 78, 79, and 82kt readings. Interesting considering a Hurricane Hunter just posted this on Twitter LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Newman said: Interesting considering a Hurricane Hunter just posted this on Twitter LOL People are whistling past the graveyard with this. It doesn’t look like a very impressive system. The want for a significant and historic event is clouding a lot of people’s judgment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see the 925 windfield tries to expand at He last second while its weakening. What do you think the chances of any decent gusts are in our area? Trying to decide if I should weaken a few trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 There is some convection trying to wrap around the center. But, this shows signs of what happens when troughs interact. That kidney bean and lopsided area of convection indicative of some shear and dry air. It doesn’t mean and can’t gain a little steam, but that it’s fighting some hostility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All of their Service areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just beautiful clean Bermuda blues out there now with towering CU. Air has special feel. He’s coming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: People are whistling past the graveyard with this. It doesn’t look like a very impressive system. The want for a significant and historic event is clouding a lot of people’s judgment This is most likely going to be upper 980s to low 990s storm when it makes landfall. Flooding should be the main concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: People are whistling past the graveyard with this. It doesn’t look like a very impressive system. The want for a significant and historic event is clouding a lot of people’s judgment It's a landfalling tropical storm. Long time ahead of this. Premature 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I have a feeling we see some big downpours and storms pop today. CU looks like Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Tang is one of the best We Tang . Wu WU Tang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Newman said: Interesting considering a Hurricane Hunter just posted this on Twitter LOL Wasn't he out there yesterday? It looked really rough during those missions. 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: People are whistling past the graveyard with this. It doesn’t look like a very impressive system. The want for a significant and historic event is clouding a lot of people’s judgment I'm not sure what you were expecting, but borderline cat 1 was the prediction for right now and that's exactly what this looks like. I can't speak for others but I'm actually taking time to present the data and while not very impressive it is squarely in the middle of the forecasted intensity for this time and environment. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is some convection trying to wrap around the center. But, this shows signs of what happens when troughs interact. That kidney bean and lopsided area of convection indicative of some shear and dry air. It doesn’t mean and can’t gain a little steam, but that it’s fighting some hostility. This. Two things can be true at the same time. It's still fighting off some hostility and has a lot of work to do but it's much better organized than it was yesterday. I'm really not sure what people were expecting at 9:30am on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Latest VDM for those that care lol Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:36ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:00:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.84N 72.20WB. Center Fix Location: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (117°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,043m (9,984ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Open from the north to the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27kts (31.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) of center fix at 12:55:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 17° at 22kts (From the NNE at 25.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 12:55:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55kts (63.3mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix at 13:18:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 215° at 82kts (From the SW at 94.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 13:20:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) which was observed 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the SE (128°) from the flight level center at 13:20:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... 10-m wind dropsonde wind unavailable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Too true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Too true Your posts have been some of the best in here and I look forward to the most. Keep them up! 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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