Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: So no changes since yesterday with track LI Nw to W MA. Strength cat 1 at LF. Only thing to figure out is final strength hmmm. definitely changes, nice try. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Quincy says no big deal..we safe now. There will be some inland outages too, but I can’t imagine anything widespread or long term away from the areas near the landfall/immediate right front quadrant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Yes, no changes except for the track shift east, and strength of a tropical storm at landfall. There has been no shift east . Some webt west . EPS is locked on that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: There has been no shift east . Some webt west . EPS is locked on that track Love you but that's wrong lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: There has been no shift east . Some webt west . EPS is locked on that track You want the track a tick west so KTOL stays in the spinup threat zone on the RFQ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Quincy said: There will be some inland outages too, but I can’t imagine anything widespread or long term away from the areas near the landfall/immediate right front quadrant. Well I hope you’re right cuz EVERSOURCE is thinking just the opposite of you. So someone will be right…?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Two camps on the 12z hurricane models. RI landfall vs LI. Spread is def greater this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Hmmm, no track adjustments yet from NHC… surprised considering how many models moved east later last night and this morning. It’s hard to bet against the GFS and Euro when they are close to being in the same camp…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Quincy said: You want the track a tick west so KTOL stays in the spinup threat zone on the RFQ. The track forecast and modeled takes it west of my area. It’s going HVN to W Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I love this time before a storm. No matter winter or summer, can always tell those who want it. 7 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I’m not quite pulling the trigger on evacuating the region, I’m betting on shelter in place. But, I am taking this seriously. Last I checked minutes ago I am in Willimantic and I am in the NW flank of the storm. That is rain. with Elsa it brought our river, which I live IN, by the way, within a few feet of our window and it raced past. Yes I live IN the river. Not near it. TEXTILE mill. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There has been no shift east . Some webt west . EPS is locked on that track You know those eastern Mass folks…anything to get it to give them the worst of it lol. Official NHC hasn’t shifted anything east yet, so there’s that in your corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Well I hope you’re right cuz EVERSOURCE is thinking just the opposite of you. So someone will be right…?? As someone who managed a utility company staging area post Hurricane Michael, it's better to overestimate power loss and have reserves ready to go than be short. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'm not sure why there are a few people poo-pooing damage potential for the interior. Ground is saturated and a tropical storm will cause plenty of damage up here. Sort of agree here. It could end up a landphoon redux and we'd get significant impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The track forecast and modeled takes it west of my area. It’s going HVN to W Ma I take it you haven't looked at any models since last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I love this time before a storm. No matter winter or summer, can always tell those who want it. The most frustrating and hilarious time for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The paranoia and sensitivity of the CT peeps is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well I hope you’re right cuz EVERSOURCE is thinking just the opposite of you. So someone will be right…?? Maybe my tin-foil hat is too tight but I wouldn't put it past them, given the spankings they received in the past year, to come out and say how they are expecting the worst-case scenario only to "exceed expectations" when they restore to most customers within a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: The paranoia and sensitivity of the CT peeps is Don't steal my hurricane tropical storm! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You know those eastern Mass folks…anything to get it to give them the worst of it lol. Official NHC hasn’t shifted anything east yet, so there’s that in your corner. You realize who you’re talking to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: The paranoia and sensitivity of the CT peeps is If the RGEM is right, no spinners for Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well I hope you’re right cuz EVERSOURCE is thinking just the opposite of you. So someone will be right…?? Well they need to prepare for the worst, they should. We can’t have another Isiass from last Aug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, radarman said: Sort of agree here. It could end up a landphoon redux and we'd get significant impact. Yup, forget snapped limbs. Lots of uprooted trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You know those eastern Mass folks…anything to get it to give them the worst of it lol. Official NHC hasn’t shifted anything east yet, so there’s that in your corner. no way .. you guys can keep it, 30" of rain in 3.5 months is enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, PowderBeard said: Maybe my tin-foil hat is too tight but I wouldn't put it past them, given the spankings they received in the past year, to come out and say how they are expecting the worst-case scenario only to "exceed expectations" when they restore to most customers within a few days. Very true. The hype machine is in full Affect at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Anyways there is spread and I still think a GON landfall roughly. Guess question is more of how far west does it tug around that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 992.5mb extrapolated by mission 9 with a 35kt SFMR. That suggests the pressure is dropping within the center. Still not seeing a particularly strong wind field near the center. Looking at the data, I don't see much of an SFMR drop either, which is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Two camps on the 12z hurricane models. RI landfall vs LI. Spread is def greater this morning It's going to come down to intensity. This explodes, it's going west. This stays weak, it's going East. Personally, I'm camp w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Quincy said: If the RGEM is right, no spinners for Kev RGEM blows. But expecting very few spinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 14 minutes ago, MVOyster said: My God, call the Steamship Authority, let these guys worry about other things than your vacation … You think they’re giving any clear answers. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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