ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Looks like the 06z euro tickled a little east. It’s actually pretty similar position as 00z at 12z Sunday morning just off the south fork of LI but the 06z run brings it more due north into ginxy’s hood rather than sharply NW into northwestern CT by 18z Sunday like the 00z run did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 19 hours ago, Quincy said: Shoreline and coastal plain, yes. Tolland-Union mountain chain, not so much. Inland winds with these systems are usually overdone. Inland winds (we’re talking over 40-50 MPH sustained) were never really expected, unless you were looking at weenie models that are notorious for exaggerating tropical cyclone strength, or maybe a few outliers model runs. Personally, I think the coastal flooding/storm surge angles are not being hit home enough. Then again, I’m not watching local media, so hopefully they are covering it more extensively. It also looks like you could see a brief spin up or two east of I-91. Sure, there will probably be quite a bit of power outages, especially across Long Island and the I-95 corridor, but at this point, the difference between TS and borderline Cat 1 is negligible. For public awareness, I think going with the hurricane warnings was warranted. It’s a bit like the Irene situation with that respect. (Plus that could have maintained hurricane status if the track was slightly further east) Barring some drastic intensification, we’re looking at a solid tropical storm (at worst) hitting LI/CT from the SSE. Certainly an uncommon event, but not up to the task to match storms like Sandy or Gloria. Even if it does become a hurricane, the conditions (SST and forward speed) do not suggest we’re seeing a hurricane landfall. Even rainfall looks rather meh. 06z HRRR/NAM show most of SNE getting less than an inch of rain, outside of western CT. Could see 1-3” here, particularly where orographic lift helps. It’s good to be ready and prepare for the worst, but eventually you have to look at the data and accept that this may underperform many expectations in terms of inland impacts. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I mean it’s all just semantics anyway at this level. I mean is anyone gonna notice the difference between a 70 mph high end T.S., and a 74 mph minimal cane? Not a chance. Those that long for the first New England LF ‘cane in 30 years will notice. The other 99% of the population won’t care. i’m rooting for 73mph so we can get the sarcastic eye roll posts from Ray. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Is the left hook prior to landfall still on the table? Latest GFS guidance suggests the ULL that would help turn Henri to the west prior to landfall is weakening. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Pluffmud said: Is the left hook prior to landfall still on the table? Latest GFS guidance suggests the ULL that would help turn Henri to the west prior to landfall is weakening. Any thoughts? Watch this today to see if it’s a trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The symmetrical look of yesterday was a facade of organizing—competing CoC’s under a “CDO” Today everything is coalescing around one CoC. This will look much more impressive on satellite in 3 -6 hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 75 yes. That’s my max. Had it been 90-100 we would be in for a beating but even 75 will weaken back down to TS as it enters colder water tonight I wouldn’t sleep on a strong TS hitting the South Coast. Will still cause a lot of damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Quincy said: Inland winds (we’re talking over 40-50 MPH sustained) were never really expected, unless you were looking at weenie models that are notorious for exaggerating tropical cyclone strength, or maybe a few outliers model runs. Personally, I think the coastal flooding/storm surge angles are not being hit home enough. Then again, I’m not watching local media, so hopefully they are covering it more extensively. It also looks like you could see a brief spin up or two east of I-91. Sure, there will probably be quite a bit of power outages, especially across Long Island and the I-95 corridor, but at this point, the difference between TS and borderline Cat 1 is negligible. For public awareness, I think going with the hurricane warnings was warranted. It’s a bit like the Irene situation with that respect. (Plus that could have maintained hurricane status if the track was slightly further east) Barring some drastic intensification, we’re looking at a solid tropical storm (at worst) hitting LI/CT from the SSE. Certainly an uncommon event, but not up to the task to match storms like Sandy or Gloria. Even if it does become a hurricane, the conditions (SST and forward speed) do not suggest we’re seeing a hurricane landfall. Even rainfall looks rather meh. 06z HRRR/NAM show most of SNE getting less than an inch of rain, outside of western CT. Could see 1-3” here, particularly where orographic lift helps. It’s good to be ready and prepare for the worst, but eventually you have to look at the data and accept that this may underperform many expectations in terms of inland impacts. So outside of the immediate shore…no big deal for most of CT. A breezy rainy day with an inch of rain for most. That’s Cool. Didn’t really want to lose power anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, Sev said: Sorry for torturing you guys every few pages. Will I be able to drive from New Jersey to Wood’s Hole, Ma by Monday afternoon to catch a ferry to MVY? Yes you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Watch this today to see if it’s a trend Hoping for an earlier recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like the 06z euro tickled a little east. It’s actually pretty similar position as 00z at 12z Sunday morning just off the south fork of LI but the 06z run brings it more due north into ginxy’s hood rather than sharply NW into northwestern CT by 18z Sunday like the 00z run did. Yeah, thinking GON is crosshair for landfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6z euro ticked east and not hooking into wct. It’s pretty safe to say the west trend was overdone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I'm not sure why there are a few people poo-pooing damage potential for the interior. Ground is saturated and a tropical storm will cause plenty of damage up here. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Given the SST and better organization I'd be surprised if this wasn't a strong Cat 1 by this evening. GFS, HMON, and HWRF all similar in that regard as well. Getting away from IR as @WxWatcher007mentioned was helpful to see the organization. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The symmetrical look of yesterday was a facade of organizing—competing CoC’s under a “CDO” Today everything is coalescing around one CoC. This will look much more impressive on satellite in 3 -6 hrs. Yup. Lots of early "storm cancel" posts here in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6z euro ticked east and not hooking into wct. It’s pretty safe to say the west trend was overdone. If it comes into Groton…we’re in for a lot more rain then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Given the SST and better organization I'd be surprised if this wasn't a strong Cat 1 by this evening. GFS, HMON, and HWRF all similar in that regard as well. Getting away from IR as @WxWatcher007mentioned was helpful to see. Looking at visible and IR can be instructive, but on the ground data is the best kind of data and that's why I'm more focused on the current structure/recon than trying to project out 24-30 hours (which is fine for others to do, I just like watching this stuff evolve). Even looking at IR and visible, it's the best presentation of Henri I've seen so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Lots of early "storm cancel" posts here in this thread. It’s like people expect all tropical systems to look like a Katrina/ Andrew on satellite. 3 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The symmetrical look of yesterday was a facade of organizing—competing CoC’s under a “CDO” Today everything is coalescing around one CoC. This will look much more impressive on satellite in 3 -6 hrs. But my hurricane doesn't look like Hayian! Must be a bust! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6z euro ticked east and not hooking into wct. It’s pretty safe to say the west trend was overdone. West trend was overdone but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be east ticks from here to landfall. Windshield wipers could tick a touch back west too. I'm still thinking landfall between New Haven and Westerly, RI. Sorry Long Island, you don't exist to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6z euro ticked east and not hooking into wct. It’s pretty safe to say the west trend was overdone. It's not pretty safe at all. The storm didn't even gain strength yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: West trend was overdone but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be east ticks from here to landfall. Windshield wipers could tick a touch back west too. I'm still thinking landfall between New Haven and Westerly, RI. Sorry Long Island, you don't exist to me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 So what’s the over/under on CT outages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, DFRI said: Yes you will. Next question. Will the ferries be running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: So what’s the over/under on CT outages? Quincy says no big deal..we safe now. But EVERSOURCE says 300-600 thousand so there’s that too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 So no changes since yesterday with track LI Nw to W MA. Strength cat 1 at LF. Only thing to figure out is final strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: West trend was overdone but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be east ticks from here to landfall. Windshield wipers could tick a touch back west too. I'm still thinking landfall between New Haven and Westerly, RI. Sorry Long Island, you don't exist to me. Good morning WxW …. Considering your alter ego Long Island is quite satisfied with that comment. As always …. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So no changes since yesterday with track LI Nw to W MA. Strength cat 1 at LF. Only thing to figure out is final strength Yes, no changes except for the track shift east, and strength of a tropical storm at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MVOyster Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 My God, call the Steamship Authority, let these guys worry about other things than your vacation … 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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