Windspeed Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6z GFS does keep a fairly steady motion into landfall. The distance between 6 hr positons doesn't decrease too much until Grace is inland. Still, that is at least 12 hours over decreasing thermodynamic support. I'm not sure how much baroclinic influence the binary interaction could give during that time for convective support to mix down 700-850 hPa level winds. Could surprise but obviously the biggest threat is flooding, which has been and should continue to be overstated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 NHC had this as a TS on landfall it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You are the worst storm cancel poster on the board. Winter and summer You cancel winter at least twice a season lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, JC-CT said: You cancel winter at least twice a season lol He already did this year. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 First VDM shows a 996mb pressure and elliptical eye shape Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 11:40ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 10:06:37ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.26N 72.72WB. Center Fix Location: 212 statute miles (340 km) to the SE (131°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,050m (10,007ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 230° at 31kts (From the SW at 36mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20° to 200° (NNE to SSW)G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical milesG. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the SSW (197°) of center fix at 10:05:33ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 291° at 43kts (From the WNW at 49.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix at 10:02:56ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the N (0°) of center fix at 10:08:19ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 81° at 33kts (From the E at 38.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (0°) of center fix at 10:09:04ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) from the flight level center at 10:02:56Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will you post later when it’s a cane? If it’s an 85-90 mph cane I will give you full credit just having a hard time seeing that based on satellite and the short lead time left. Needed to be a cane by now IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No back tracking here bro…just conversation. Nothing wrong with that. We’ll see if he can turn the corner today and tonight. Maybe he does? Would be very interesting if that does indeed happen. CT does not handle high wind events well so if we can keep inland gusts below 60mph we should be fine. I’m worried about these 3 trees that overhang the house on the East side so the gusts, wind direction, and obviously how saturated the ground is and gets… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 “Looking under the hood” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sev Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Sorry for torturing you guys every few pages. Will I be able to drive from New Jersey to Wood’s Hole, Ma by Monday afternoon to catch a ferry to MVY? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You are the worst storm cancel poster on the board. Winter and summer 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Amd you are the worst weenie out there hanging on til the last possible second….lol take a breath dude and do you really want 5+ days without power So what you guys are saying is that I should take both of what you all say and split the difference for an accurate forecast? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If it’s an 85-90 mph cane I will give you full credit just having a hard time seeing that based on satellite and the short lead time left. Needed to be a cane by now IMO. You can’t even see 75-80 today though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 21Location: 33.6°N 72.7°WMoving: NNE at 12 mphMin pressure: 993 mbMax sustained: 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 https://twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1429046780205969410?s=20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Additional unflagged 60-63kt SFMR and 60-62kt FL wind data coming from recon mission 9. This is extremely close to being a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: https://twitter.com/mfdwx/status/1429046780205969410?s=20 Montauk to BID is the goal post. I'm leaning BID based on latest trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 At 8AM, central pressure is at 993mb, so it's apparently dropped 3mb since the 5AM update. Still looks like crap on satellite, but shear is down and it definitely looks more vertically stacked. I think it intensifies into a cane by 11AM. Also, starting to see what I think might be the core on radar. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Here's the center sonde that confirmed the 993mb pressure. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 11:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 21st day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mbCoordinates: 33.5N 72.6WLocation: 206 statute miles (332 km) to the SE (126°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -60m (-197 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 993mb (29.33 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 250° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 925mb 629m (2,064 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.5°C (72°F) 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 850mb 1,365m (4,478 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.3°C (65°F) 255° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 700mb 3,028m (9,934 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) About 9°C (48°F) 270° (from the W) 5 knots (6 mph) Information About Radiosonde:- Launch Time: 11:25Z- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.Highest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 33.50N 72.56W- Time: 11:25:20ZLowest altitude where wind was reported:- Location: 33.51N 72.55W- Time: 11:30:08ZMean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 220° (from the SW)- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):- Wind Direction: 245° (from the WSW)- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 993mbAverage Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)- Wind Direction: 220° (from the SW)- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 993mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 850mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.3°C (65°F) 766mb 17.6°C (63.7°F) About 12°C (54°F) 718mb 15.4°C (59.7°F) About 8°C (46°F) 703mb 14.0°C (57.2°F) 9.3°C (49°F) 697mb Unavailable Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 993mb (Surface) 250° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 977mb 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 945mb 210° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 924mb 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 893mb 260° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph) 870mb 245° (from the WSW) 12 knots (14 mph) 850mb 255° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 776mb 260° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph) 767mb 250° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 755mb 275° (from the W) 11 knots (13 mph) 747mb 245° (from the WSW) 11 knots (13 mph) 735mb 245° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 697mb 285° (from the WNW) 6 knots (7 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Additional unflagged 60-63kt SFMR and 60-62kt FL wind data coming from recon mission 9. This is extremely close to being a hurricane. I mean it’s all just semantics anyway at this level. I mean is anyone gonna notice the difference between a 70 mph high end T.S., and a 74 mph minimal cane? Not a chance. But if he’s an 85 mph Cane, then that’s a different story. Maybe today and tonight he makes a name for himself, and pulls it together on his final approach into SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Storm looks like crap Hope it starts to gain strength soon Navgem misses everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 ...Long Island into southern New England... Tropical system Henri -- forecast by the latest NHC updates to move onshore over Long Island during the day Sunday -- will be accompanied by widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall. With little instability expected inland, thunderstorm activity in outer bands will likely be muted to some degree. Still, a few stronger convective cells in bands within the northeast quadrant of the storm may prove capable of convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly a brief tornado or two, through the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I mean it’s all just semantics anyway at this level. I mean is anyone gonna notice the difference between a 70 mph high end T.S., and a 74 mph minimal cane? Not a chance. But if he’s an 85 mph Cane, then that’s a different story. Maybe today and tonight he makes a name for himself, and pulls it together on his final approach into SNE? Looking at movement and temps probably another 12-14 hour window left to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I would not be telling people it would LF as a strong Cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can’t even see 75-80 today though? 75 yes. That’s my max. Had it been 90-100 we would be in for a beating but even 75 will weaken back down to TS as it enters colder water tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Storm looks like crap Hope it starts to gain strength soon Navgem misses everyone Hoping for a 5 borough power outage so you can work OT with the added crime sprees? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Sounds like “too little too late” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6z gfs had a weaker ULL to the SW of Henri -helped tickle him East of previous guidance I would watch to see if that is a trend today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I mean it’s all just semantics anyway at this level. I mean is anyone gonna notice the difference between a 70 mph high end T.S., and a 74 mph minimal cane? Not a chance. But if he’s an 85 mph Cane, then that’s a different story. Maybe today and tonight he makes a name for himself, and pulls it together on his final approach into SNE? Whether or not it is designated right now is semantics, yes. But I'm trying to illustrate that this isn't as disorganized as some seem to think. Watching intensification can often be like watching paint dry, so it's really important for folks to not become a prisoner of the moment. It is gradually organizing and it is not a leap at all to think that in 12 hours or so it would be an 80-85 mph hurricane, which is in line with the NHC forecast. Based on the data I see, I do not think Henri is underperforming the forecast so far. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would not be telling people it would LF as a strong Cat 1. Landfall as a weak cat 1 might be a tall task. Strong cat 1 by the time it comes ashore seems very unlikely. We’d prob need very rapid intensification today up to like cat 2 if we wanted to entertain a landfall as a high end cat 1. The storm is going to weaken between peak intensity and landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Looking at movement and temps probably another 12-14 hour window left to strengthen. Yes, he’s got today to get it together. We keep hearing how the shear was supposed dissipate, but it hasn’t dissipated quite enough to allow him to get it together. Sometimes that’s how these go, they just can’t strengthen. Henri seems to be one of those. At least so far… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 6z gfs had a weaker ULL to the SW of Henri -helped tickle him East of previous guidance I would watch to see if that is a trend today Seems to be a trend since yesterday evening. BID landfall would be my guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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