ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It looks like a kidney bean on satellite. It’s going to need a boost today. Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast. Yeah I wonder if it ever becomes a hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Brian5671 said: Yeah I wonder if it ever becomes a hurricane Probably not. Can’t seem to take off at all. He’s done I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in. Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod. It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time It's not that bad considering the simulation of binary trough interactions vary. Even slight variance and position a few hours post initialization can lead to big differences 24-36 hrs out in capture, recurve, slow down, landfall point, etc. These are just difficult to model and forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in. Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod. It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time To be fair, this recurve scenario close to landfall means uncertainty is quite high, at very short lead times. This is just a general rule of thumb. Accuracy goes up once new forward velocity attained. What it implies here is a capture (phase). When does that happen and to what degree? It’s a very complex interaction, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast. Realistically, how much time does it have left over warm water? Twelve hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah I wonder if it ever becomes a hurricane I think at 8am or 11am it is but 37.5N is about the point where SSTs fall below 80F. It’s got maybe 15 hours at most 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Man, that 06z GFS looks threatening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast. Great trends there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The HeyMON landfalls near BID Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I still find it hard to believe in 2021 models could be that far off with the track this close in. Their cone seems somewhat absurd to me at 2pm tomorrow of NYC or Cape Cod. It’s probably 98% it ends up within 10-20 miles of their current position forecast at that time Models had Fred going as far west as Mobile Al and corrected back east to Panama City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The flooding and dews have been so extreme that it may restrengthen over CT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: The flooding and dews have been so extreme that it may restrengthen over CT. Like going over the Everglades. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast. This seems like the biggest wildcard to me at this point. Track is relatively locked in but I can see a pretty wide range in impacts right now with uncertainty wrt strength. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today. For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification. Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I’m seeing some early signs that Henri is finally organizing around ONE center of circulation. He’s got a lot of work to do, but this very disheveled appearance looks like a “shedding” of the competing MLC, LLC state and evolution into a structure that is vertically stacked. Time is the limiting factor now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I’m seeing some early signs that Henri is finally organizing around ONE center of circulation. He’s got a lot of work to do, but this very disheveled appearance looks like a “shedding” of the competing MLC, LLC state and evolution into a structure that is vertically stacked. Time is the limiting factor now. Sounds like “too little too late” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today. For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification. Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out. Yes, very true. He just can’t seem to do it. The shear can’t seem to kill him(resilient storm), but he can’t seem to bust out either. We’ll see what today brings? Maybe he finally goes to town? I’m thinking most likely not though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Second recon plane (Mission 10) finds an extrapolated pressure of 991.7mb while flying at ~10k ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today. For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification. Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out. Yup. Just saw the mission 9 data coming in, might have the winds this pass or the next. Thanks for sharing the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Impressive convection firing off Delaware. Assuming it holds together as it progresses north, you can see how someone gets nailed in western New England or the HV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I love all the storm cancel posts. When it’s a cane at 11:00 and 85-90mph by 5:00 PM.. will be funny to see the backtracking 3 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Sounds like “too little too late” You are the worst storm cancel poster on the board. Winter and summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It looks like a kidney bean on satellite. It’s going to need a boost today. Lol. It looks like a weak MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You are the worst storm cancel poster on the board. Winter and summer Amd you are the worst weenie out there hanging on til the last possible second….lol take a breath dude and do you really want 5+ days without power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I love all the storm cancel posts. When it’s a cane at 11:00 and 85-90mph by 5:00 PM.. will be funny to see the backtracking No back tracking here bro…just conversation. Nothing wrong with that. We’ll see if he can turn the corner today and tonight. Maybe he does? Would be very interesting if that does indeed happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes, very true. He’s just can’t seem to do it. The shear can’t seem to kill him(resilient storm), but he can’t seem to bust out either. We’ll see what today brings? Maybe he finally goes to town? I’m thinking most likely not though. I think going to town is unlikely too, but I'd probably still give it about a 20% chance FWIW. There is still a fair amount of space left for intensification. 3 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Yup. Just saw the mission 9 data coming in, might have the winds this pass or the next. Maybe on the eastern side. It wouldn't take much to get over the threshold but they still need to sample that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Amd you are the worst weenie out there hanging on til the last possible second….lol take a breath dude and do you really want 5+ days without power Will you post later when it’s a cane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No back tracking here bro…just conversation. Nothing wrong with that. We’ll see if he can turn the corner today and tonight. Maybe he does? Would be very interesting if that does indeed happen. Not you man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Heh, right after I say that--unflagged 60-65kt (60,61,63,65) SFMR with 60-63kt FL winds by Mission 9. That might do it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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