Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Ukie with the landfall right over my house. East of 12z and about 8mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Here is 1938 track for comparison. Of course the timing, intensity and forward speed are completely different. I suspect this July was the wettest for you guys since that year, so it's interesting seeing the tracks so similar, at least as projected now. The 1937-38 July-June year was my top local match for precipitation to 2020-21 out of all years in the past 100, so I'm not real surprised that we've had a Summer with similar enough jet-stream / high / low positioning for this type of track to happen. A lot of your hurricane hits do seem to pass that magical ~32N/72W spot. In the old days, a hurricane was supposed to have a surface pressure under 980 mb on the saffir-simpson scale. At 994 mb...it's kind of meh in terms of strength by that measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 new ukmet tracks from Eastern LI into NY/CT/MA border area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: This may be pulling a TS Chris right now. Looks completely sheared with full decoupling. I expect hurricane warnings to be dropped. Won't be more than a weak TS at landfall. Seems a little early to draw that conclusion... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: new ukmet tracks from Eastern LI into NY/CT/MA border area. That's about 50-75 miles east of previous run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, bristolri_wx said: That's about 50-75 miles east of previous run... Shocker... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This may be pulling a TS Chris right now. Looks completely sheared with full decoupling. I expect hurricane warnings to be dropped. Won't be more than a weak TS at landfall. Intensity forecasts are a pain but I was surprised a bit NHC moved the track west at 11pm. I was not at all understanding of why they did that based off the 18Z guidance, obviously they had no reliable 00z models yet at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Shocker... You called it. Canadian same thing. 12z was over NYC, 0z over Westerly RI. That's about 150 miles lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Seeing guidance windshield wipe isn't terribly surprising. That's pretty common from what I've seen with tropical. Heck, it happens for winter systems too. As for recon, I'm not sure what they saw on radar but when examining the area I didn't see anything that stood out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 HMON into the CT/RI border as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Messenger even does TS, RIP, I miss Scott.......... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 That’s one lopsided storm on the HWRF lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: HMON into the CT/RI border as well. Seems to be the consensus of 00z so far. If the Euro supports it NHC probably needs to shift the warnings east into RI/MA at 5am. Could probably downgrade to a TS warning west of Old Saybrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: That’s one lopsided storm on the HWRF lol It was stronger with winds near the center this run but more compact with the wind field and notably faster. Landfall point appeared same as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was stronger with winds near the center this run but more compact with the wind field and notably faster. Landfall point appeared same as 18z Yep I noticed that regarding the wind field. Faster landfall is surprising though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Gee, no forecast discussion at BOX tonight... last one was at 7:15 PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, bristolri_wx said: Gee, no forecast discussion at BOX tonight... last one was at 7:15 PM... usually 4pm/4am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: usually 4pm/4am True, but often they have an update at around 10:30-ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Euro looks a pinch east and a little slower through HR 24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: True, but often they have an update at around 10:30-ish... Looks like they updated at 6:30pm instead, sometimes they'll update throughout shift if needed too. But that's near-term stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Slightly east and weaker than 12z up until landfall, but it then cuts hard west. Euro has been terrible with this storm but interesting nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Euro scrapes E LI at HR 42 and takes it into central CT. Looks like it moved about 25-50 miles east this run... strength about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Euro likes my Montauk point idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I don’t think I’ve ever been more tempted to take a day trip to Foxwoods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro likes my Montauk point idea. My thought is over the Twin Forks but close enough. Henri's struggling so it might be fairly irrelevant in the end other than where the heavy rain sets up. There won't be that bad a surge and wind impact if it doesn't start ramping up soon, and also since it'll have to rely on being purely tropical north of the Gulf Stream. It'll have a nasty (damaging but not widely destructive) impact in terms of surge in the funneling bays and winds on the east side but if it kinda stays as is I think it might tick east some more and be generally known as a rain event with power outages where the border hurricane gusts happen. Maybe tomorrow we'll all be humbled with an eye as it pounds into a Cat 2 but I'm not seeing the wow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My thought is over the Twin Forks but close enough. Henri's struggling so it might be fairly irrelevant in the end other than where the heavy rain sets up. There won't be that bad a surge and wind impact if it doesn't start ramping up soon, and also since it'll have to rely on being purely tropical north of the Gulf Stream. It'll have a nasty (damaging but not widely destructive) impact in terms of surge in the funneling bays and winds on the east side but if it kinda stays as is I think it might tick east some more and be generally known as a rain event with power outages where the border hurricane gusts happen. Maybe tomorrow we'll all be humbled with an eye as it pounds into a Cat 2 but I'm not seeing the wow here. There have only been 8 hurricanes to strike new england since 1900...a category 1 is a very rare event even if it doesn't seem so because we're used to tracking powerful canes in the south. two cat 3's, three cat 2's and three cat 1's in over 120 years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My thought is over the Twin Forks but close enough. Henri's struggling so it might be fairly irrelevant in the end other than where the heavy rain sets up. There won't be that bad a surge and wind impact if it doesn't start ramping up soon, and also since it'll have to rely on being purely tropical north of the Gulf Stream. It'll have a nasty (damaging but not widely destructive) impact in terms of surge in the funneling bays and winds on the east side but if it kinda stays as is I think it might tick east some more and be generally known as a rain event with power outages where the border hurricane gusts happen. Maybe tomorrow we'll all be humbled with an eye as it pounds into a Cat 2 but I'm not seeing the wow here. I've always just expected hydro issues...its not going to intensify much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: There have only been 8 hurricanes to strike new england since 1900...a category 1 is a very rare event even if it doesn't seem so because we're used to tracking powerful canes in the south. two cat 3's, three cat 2's and three cat 1's in over 120 years I would give a greater than 50/50 shot it landfalls as a TS, but won't make a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, TheDreamTraveler said: There have only been 8 hurricanes to strike new england since 1900...a category 1 is a very rare event even if it doesn't seem so because we're used to tracking powerful canes in the south. two cat 3's, three cat 2's and three cat 1's in over 120 years Unless it seriously gets going soon I'm not sold on it coming ashore as more than a 50-60mph tropical storm. A compact system like this will fade pretty quick north of the Gulf Stream unless it hauls which models aren't doing. Sure there will be wind and surge impacts east of the track but the small size and diminishing intensity would mean a small area of impacts from those. I'm starting to lean to this more as a rain event. Again watch this explode tomorrow but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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