dryslot Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 This will end up being Hurricane Mehnri up here outside of the coastal areas getting some high surf. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Storm is definitely strengthening per satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This will end up being Hurricane Mehnri up here outside of the coastal ares getting some high surf. 24-36 hours will tell a lot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I doubt we will have a clear idea of what Henri is going to do until we start getting regular recon data fed into the models, which should be the case by Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gfs definitely weaker so far. 995mb vs 983mb at 57hrs. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: First call OTS as a weakening H1 Cape Cod gets core of rain and NW wind gusts 5PM NHC concurs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Henri 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Gfs definitely weaker so far. 995mb vs 983mb at 57hrs. Interesting Meanwhile it's almost a hurricane now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Gfs definitely weaker so far. 995mb vs 983mb at 57hrs. Interesting I wouldn't be suprised if Henri is closing in on 995 mb right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: This will end up being Hurricane Mehnri up here outside of the coastal areas getting some high surf. Yeah. Coastal ME isn’t really in a good spot for anything fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Gfs definitely weaker so far. 995mb vs 983mb at 57hrs. Interesting It initialized it too shallow in pressure depth - suspect run because of that. Inertia is important in the equations of all motions. You don't understand that? leave earth-sciences related forums and stick to gardening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, tiger_deF said: I wouldn't be suprised if Henri is closing in on 995 mb right now It’s has it around 995 for a while but then weakens it to around 100mb 12+ hours from now. Maybe due to shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 weenies starting to deflate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: weenies starting to deflate From an off hour Gfs run? Lol. No one should be fully aroused at day 5 regardless 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I wouldn't be suprised if Henri is closing in on 995 mb right now um... yeah - NHC advisory has that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Gfs looks like it wants to stall this south of Nantucket? Might not even make landfall. This seems pretty inline with what Ray was thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: um... yeah - NHC advisory has that? He’s a cane right now imo , not that it matters much I think with the little burst of N shear forecast tonite they *may* want to see if he can hold on to his current structure , they don’t want to upgrade then downgrade and confuse the poor public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: From an off hour Gfs run? Lol. No one should be fully aroused at day 5 regardless a slight deflation lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 18Z vs. 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 If GEFS move west or east . That will be important . Not an off hour 18z run 4.5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said: The National Hurricane Center at 5pm appears to have this tracking over the Cape. Wow. Rename it "James". 1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said: NHC giving in. Major shift west on track. Almost all of NE is in the cone now Looks just like a Joe Biden ice cream cone. 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: From an off hour Gfs run? Lol. No one should be fully aroused at day 5 regardless Let's begin the semi-annual discussion on the value of 06z and 18z runs. They never fail to bore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Keep it offshore, enough folks are suffering due to crazy weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Seems more realistic than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: Keep it offshore, enough folks are suffering due to crazy weather Done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Still early though. We are talking like 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 How would ACK do on that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Seems more realistic than 12z. 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Still early though. We are talking like 5 days out Totally agree. Don’t get caught up in run to run shifts this far out. I think the lack of development early on by the GFS caused the east shift here. You can see how it’s lopsided for a bit before organizing and intensifying. The track seems very sensitive to intensity, which is going to be very difficult to predict even at short range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Rename it "James". Looks just like a Joe Biden ice cream cone. Let's begin the semi-annual discussion on the value of 06z and 18z runs. They never fail to bore. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 All in on op runs 5 days out until they don't show what you want. Lmao 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 First calls 5 days out on a Hurricane. I mean wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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