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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Gfs definitely weaker so far. 995mb vs 983mb at 57hrs.  Interesting 

It initialized it too shallow in pressure depth - suspect run because of that. 

Inertia is important in the equations of all motions.  You don't understand that?  leave earth-sciences related forums and stick to gardening.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

um... yeah - NHC advisory has that?

He’s a cane right now imo , not that it matters much 

I think with the little burst of N shear forecast tonite they *may* want  to see if he can hold on to his current structure , they don’t want to upgrade then downgrade and confuse the poor public

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1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said:

The National Hurricane Center at 5pm appears to have this tracking over the Cape. Wow.

Rename it "James".

1 hour ago, BombsAway1288 said:

NHC giving in.

Major shift west on track.

Almost all of NE is in the cone now

Looks just like a Joe Biden ice cream cone.

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

From an off hour Gfs run? Lol. No one should be fully aroused at day 5 regardless 

Let's begin the semi-annual discussion on the value of 06z and 18z runs.  They never fail to bore.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems more realistic than 12z. 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still early though. We are talking like 5 days out

Totally agree. Don’t get caught up in run to run shifts this far out. 

I think the lack of development early on by the GFS caused the east shift here. You can see how it’s lopsided for a bit before organizing and intensifying. The track seems very sensitive to intensity, which is going to be very difficult to predict even at short range. 

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