Tropical Storm Henri

[WeatherHappens]

[radarman]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's like a really weak version of Carol.

Just as an aside, I like how there was a category 5 hurricane carol in 1953, and they felt compelled to reuse the name the very next year. 

[Cyclone-68]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Just as an aside, I like how there was a category 5 hurricane carol in 1953, and they felt compelled to reuse the name the very next year. 

Hurricanes like people were tougher then lol

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM hitting a tropical system correctly is like the Toronto Maple Leafs winning a first round playoff series 

1542???

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-watch-issued-for-south-coast.html

Thanks, Ray.  I'll enjoy my "dodging the bullet" zone.

[ineedsnow]

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

Looks like the LLC is starting to slowly merge with the MLC.

[weatherwiz]

If this does strengthen into a category 2 or a higher-end category 1 we are in very deep trouble here

[Joe4alb]

Everyones phones blowing up with the Emergency Broadcast msg for Hurricane warnings now in effect for the Southern areas. 

 

Henri Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service New York NY  AL082021
501 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

NYZ081-210515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SS.W.1008.210820T2101Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HU.W.1008.210820T2101Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SS.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.HU.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southeast Suffolk-
501 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning means hurricane-force winds are expected
somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Mastic Beach
    - Hampton Bays
    - Montauk Point

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 50-65 mph with gusts to 80 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday evening
          until early Monday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
      to 110 mph
        - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
          2 hurricane force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
          having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
          structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
          destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
          Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
        - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
          roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: early Sunday morning until Sunday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
        - The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
          greater than 3 feet above ground.
        - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
          soon be brought to completion before conditions become
          unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
          your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
          needlessly risk lives.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated
          by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the
          coast.
        - Sections of near shore escape routes and secondary roads
          become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
          vulnerable low spots. Flood control systems and barriers
          may become stressed.
        - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Very
          dangerous surf and rip currents.
        - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
          Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
          in unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
          valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
          mudslides.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://scoem.suffolkcountyny.gov
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes

[Ginx snewx]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan’s got LF into HVN

He's back?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not sure if this was posted earlier.   Lot of non solid precipitation 

 

It's pretty clear ... whomever's near the "6.66" is doomed to hell -

[Vice-Regent]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's pretty clear ... whomever's near the "6.66" is doomed to hell -

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's weird to see such a uniform wind pattern like that for a New England TC....so used to seeing the expanding windfield and the best winds well east of the center.

 

Yeah ..it's been the idiosyncrasy about this thing in model designs all along - refuses to obey planetary physics LOL.   No but agreed - quite odd actually.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He's back?

Flying back tomorrow a day early. 

[USCG RS]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If this does strengthen into a category 2 or a higher-end category 1 we are in very deep trouble here

Ill be honest, I believe we should be preparing for this possibility. It will not take much for this thing to strengthen to this, especially over the gulf stream. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Ill be honest, I believe we should be preparing for this possibility. It will not take much for this thing to strengthen to this, especially over the gulf stream. 

I don't think it can be discounted...but I am not a hurricane forecaster. I mostly rely on the model intensity guidance (which can be very iffy...especially in RI environments...this isn't one of those but I don't want to fully base something off a chart). Given the significance of that type of strengthening has on the outcome...it needs to be considered. 

[WeatherHappens]

the New England hurricane stein continues

[Typhoon Tip]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I mentioned that too. I don't really see any signs much of ET transition until it really weakens. So weird.

know why ?    ( wait for it - you'll love this one ...)

Hadley Cell.       I think so.  It's shell is beyond our latitude with Henri fully still engulfed inside the non-hydrostatic boundary, it is behaving like a warm atmsophere/cold ocean relic and just starving as opposed to encountering thermodynamic gradients where-by commencing baroclinic physical conversion. 

Fascinating.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think it can be discounted...but I am not a hurricane forecaster. I mostly rely on the model intensity guidance (which can be very iffy...especially in RI environments...this isn't one of those but I don't want to fully base something off a chart). Given the significance of that type of strengthening has on the outcome...it needs to be considered. 

Yeah. Unfortunately, our grid is in no shape to take this type of hit. Neither are the trees for that matter. 

Likewise, we have to remember that this begins to slow down significantly at our latitude and this could significantly prolong impacts. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

I was hoping for a couple inches but projecting/guessing that map NE-ward suggests about the same 1/3" as Fred.  And maybe a 20 mph gust.

If that much

54 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

This is a dangerous tweet, nothing supports cat 2, nothing

Look who tweeted that? That's all you need to know.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

know why ?    ( wait for it - you'll love this one ...)

Hadley Cell.       I think so.  It's shell is beyond our latitude with Henri fully still engulfed inside the non-hydrostatic boundary, it is behaving like a warm atmsophere/cold ocean relic and just starving as opposed to encountering thermodynamic gradients and baroclinic physics. 

Fascinating.

Wow. That's.. Wow. The nerd in me is very very very intrigued. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Flying back tomorrow a day early. 

We need to watch this carefully tonight, any RI and bang. Still not convinced this doesn't fall apart in cool waters if it crawls north. I have been racking my brain trying to remember a cane  that went poof in the late 60s early 70s.  I know I surfed for 3 days straight to empty beaches as they evacuated everyone 

[HailMan06]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Wow. That's.. Wow. The nerd in me is very very very intrigued. 

Me too

[Typhoon Tip]

Another ob that may be real here... I think part of the shear that is still sort of lingering longer than thought during the day ...might be caused by that deep convection that's smearing east off the M/A today.. .Fred's guts subtended just enough cool frontal slope in that region, and that's a detail the models probably were not resolving prior runs/days leading. So, we have -70 cloud tops exploding in linear clusters and that has an an outflow in it's own right -

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Another ob that may be real here... I think part of the shear that is still sort of lingering longer than thought during the day ...might be caused by that deep convection that's smearing east off the M/A today.. .Fred's guts subtended just enough cool frontal slope in that region, and that's a detail the models probably were not resolving prior runs/days leading. So, we have -70 cloud tops exploding in linear clusters and that has an an outflow in it's own right -

Are you thinking a macroscale favorable interaction with the remnants allowing for poleward venting? 

[HailMan06]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

know why ?    ( wait for it - you'll love this one ...)

Hadley Cell.       I think so.  It's shell is beyond our latitude with Henri fully still engulfed inside the non-hydrostatic boundary, it is behaving like a warm atmsophere/cold ocean relic and just starving as opposed to encountering thermodynamic gradients and baroclinic physics. 

Fascinating.

Could you expand on this @Typhoon Tip?

@LibertyBell

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We need to watch this carefully tonight, any RI and bang. Still not convinced this doesn't fall apart in cool waters if it crawls north. I have been racking my brain trying to remember a cane  that went poof in the late 60s early 70s.  I know I surfed for 3 days straight to empty beaches as they evacuated everyone 

I mean I guess it could but the wind field is going to expand north to some degree. If it gets to low end cat 2 like some stuff shows.. and it moves into HVN as Cat 1 and moves 5-10 mph NNW towards ALB.. that’s a long period of winds gusting 60-70 mph well north . I’m not thinking cane gusts can get that far north but there will be some very strong winds at least to I-90 in my opinion. This whole thing is a first so all anyone can do is really just make educated guesses . 

[Rjay]

For my part of Suffolk Co (Long Island)

Hurricane Warning means hurricane-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Lindenhurst - Sayville - Patchogue * WIND - LATEST

LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 65 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning until early Monday morning 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Are you thinking a macroscale favorable interaction with the remnants allowing for poleward venting? 

Not sure I know what you mean here ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some of these solutions are really far west…. Like the icon… basically a non event here 

I wouldn't buy into that. .