Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Not a lock that this system landfalls -IN SNE - as a TS, btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Staring at that vis loop ... It's almost like it wants to molt - completely remove/shed the mlv vortex, and after it decouples, the pupa llvs coughs until it explodes new convection and goes on from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I'm somwhat inclined to toss the UKIe idea of the wild west bend though. I think like those HURR models and the Euro its more likely to come in on a 330-340 angle somewhere and hold to that idea. The pattern to me does not support anything otherwise unless it becomes a cat 2 or3 yeah I don't see those crazy west bends happening either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, George001 said: The low is headed right over my backyard. This storm is terrifying, the extreme wind being forecasted in my area remind me of Irene. That was the worst storm I have ever experienced in my lifetime, the wind was so extreme that the trampoline was blown off the ground and started bouncing around my backyard. We lost power for a week, with fallen trees and branches everywhere. My area only got like 2-3 inches of rain, but the extreme wind is what made that storm so devastating in my area. Irene went about 10 miles west of me on the south shore of LI. Winds were strong enough to knock some larger trees down but nothing “extreme”. I’m not sold on the huge wind potential for this one either. If this blows up to a strong Cat 2 maybe but if it straggles as a minimal hurricane it’ll reach us as a mid grade tropical storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I actually agree with "Snowgoosenaughty69" because the UKMET has a curved bias it has always had imho, dating back to the late 1990s. I still see semblances of it there, lurking in that model's ongoing cinema... So seeing it be the most dramatic in that regard - heh... okay - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 If this thing injests enough air from the SE United States.....could it become a full-blown COVIDcane? 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Irene went about 10 miles west of me on the south shore of LI. Winds were strong enough to knock some larger trees down but nothing “extreme”. I’m not sold on the huge wind potential for this one either. If this blows up to a strong Cat 2 maybe but if it straggles as a minimal hurricane it’ll reach us as a mid grade tropical storm. Irene was like only a 60-65mph system and NHC did not want to have people let their guard down the final 12-24 so they just kept it at 70 or 75 (I think it was 75). This will be the first true LF tropical up here though since Irene really. Isiaish and Sandy were hybrids or transitioners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Trying to form an eye. It might be upgraded at 5, but I think more likely tonight at 11 pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, George001 said: This is going to be the second tropical storm or stronger to hit the New England region this year and we still have a long way to go before the end of hurricane season. In my opinion, this year will go down as one of the most severe hurricane seasons on record. Hot take central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: If this thing injests enough air from the SE United States.....could it become a full-blown COVIDcane? Henri is probably vaccinated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Scituate marinas asking people to pull their boats . Guess they’re not watching the same weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Irene was like only a 60-65mph system and NHC did not want to have people let their guard down the final 12-24 so they just kept it at 70 or 75 (I think it was 75). This will be the first true LF tropical up here though since Irene really. Isiaish and Sandy were hybrids or transitioners. This is a moderate TS on all the models that get this far west, literally every model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Stock up on beer SNE. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Stock up on beer SNE. https://untappd.com/v/tamarack-wine-and-spirits/411640 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just checking in. I have not been following the thread today other than a couple of glances. So many weenie type posts. Henri looks like crap right now. I would have thought that we would have some good strengthening by this time. The storm looks small geographically and wagons are west. May turn out to be a pretty okay weekend out on the Cape. My thinking is this will be a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane at best. Not one of the "big" ones. For that you need a system screaming northbound in front of a trough. Still time for Henri to get it's act together but keep expectations low if you are a big storm lover. I think of Tip in weather situations like this. A nice clean airmass with Bahama blue skies with fast Cu moving by. Definitely will feel tropical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, amarshall said: Scituate marinas asking people to pull their boats . Guess they’re not watching the same weather . Seems like an overreaction given current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, amarshall said: Scituate marinas asking people to pull their boats . Guess they’re not watching the same weather . Idk track has been all over the place. It could be bad there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, wxeyeNH said: Just checking in. I have not been following the thread today other than a couple of glances. So many weenie type posts. Henri looks like crap right now. I would have thought that we would have some good strengthening by this time. The storm looks small geographically and wagons are west. May turn out to be a pretty okay weekend out on the Cape. My thinking is this will be a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane at best. Not one of the "big" ones. For that you need a system screaming northbound in front of a trough. Still time for Henri to get it's act together but keep expectations low if you are a big storm lover. I think of Tip in weather situations like this. A nice clean airmass with Bahama blue skies with fast Cu moving by. Definitely will feel tropical. As I posted earlier...we've had many cases the last decade of storms in that area that head up towards SNE and then OTS which we thought would strengthen and never did....part of it is every time the window is short, like 24-48 but in each case it feels like the centers were not aligned and when you're trying to get that in addition to RI in a 36-48 hour span its tough. I think it still makes it to 75-80 at some point but not sure it gets beyond that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Idk track has been all over the place. It could be bad there. People around here think a huge storm is still coming - My wife just told me that all of her friends and coworkers are saying we're in the direct path and I'm the only one who has meh'd it. Hope I'm right, lol I told her maybe we'll get a few gusts to 30mph. That's probably on the high end in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stock up on beer SNE. Heading to Fox Farm later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Idk track has been all over the place. It could be bad there. It won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It won't be. I totally think they get out safe. But there is that small percentage chance it goes east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: People around here think a huge storm is still coming - My wife just told me that all of her friends and coworkers are saying we're in the direct path and I'm the only one who has meh'd it. Hope I'm right, lol I told her maybe we'll get a few gusts to 30mph. That's probably on the high end in reality Because they watched the new last night and haven't followed up today to see shift in track W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Got to agree Wiz. CT should be raiding grocery stores. A chipmunk farts and 25% of Eversource customers are without power for 3-4 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Nobody is leaving the island 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Miser Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stock up on beer SNE. So we have plenty of libations to assuage the boredom of watching a breezy rain storm? I got the generator out and stocked up on gas, but I'm thinking it was wasted effort at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Love all the people at the grocery store for an inch of rain and stiff breeze here. Oh no, we’ll never be able to get out Sunday with winds gusting to 25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I’m starting to think this is kind of like a movie which starts out great but ends up having a ridiculously bad ending. I hope I’m wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 My neighbor had his generator out and running earlier this afternoon. I told him he can probably roll that right back into the garage. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, hammerz_nailz said: Heading to Fox Farm later. Yes! One of the best man. Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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