WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: what products are you looking at to see tilt/stacked system? Microwave images here: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc21/ATL/08L.HENRI/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Was just about to post this exact couple of sentiments - ..and despite the air of exuberance in mood and posting spin, this is still all based on what ifs - granted, more plausible than 'what isn'ts' but ... storm enthusiasts that want to see their neighbor's property denuded from the face of the planet while leaving theirs ...unscathed with power still entitled and in tact, will need to get some realization of intensity/organization profile cooking here. I have been saying that for the past couple of days....you probably aren't getting pristine conditions near the latitude of Hatteras, which is when it will encounter its best envt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Yeah, you can really see the llc well north of the mid and upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: use some meteorology for once Nw side way away from a compact weakening Cat 1, cmon Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Classic emergency management paradigm. You get a disaster, there's documented shortcomings in infrastructure then nothing changes when the next event occurs. But when the next event happens, the baseline infrastructure doesn't get improved yet supports more residences, businesses, etc. And then politicians look at us and go why didn't you prepare us for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ginxy you'd get nasty winds with euro track I think. Yes we would . Those that live in SNE know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have been saying that for the past couple of days....you probably aren't getting pristine conditions near the latitude of Hatteras, which is when it will encounter its best envt. Word! This thing looks like shit to me at this hour frankly. I keep seeing a flurry of post about explosions and detonations and go look and heh wtf are we looking at. Nick's post with vis loop - it's hard to argue that the inner sanctum of rotation isn't about to pop right out of the convective foreskin on that NW side. Things can change in a hurry and I am not 86 any forecasts here at all - just the now-cast gripes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Would be funny if it never makes hurricane and landfalls as a naked swirl 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Holy shit its panic city at the stores and shore from what everyone is telling me. Hope its not a case where its mostly meh and then the big one comes.It was meh-central around here a couple hours ago. I saw one other guy at the hardware store grabbing a gas can and maybe a an extra car or two topping off at the gas station. Seemed like your average day at Stop & Shop. I think some people are still sleeping on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: Would be funny if it never makes hurricane and landfalls as a naked swirl Had that thought this morning. These can unravel quickly at our latitude. We shall see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Word! This thing looks like shit to me at this hour frankly. I keep seeing a flurry of post about explosions and detonations and go look and heh wtf are we looking at. Nick's post with vis loop - it's hard to argue that the inner sanctum of rotation isn't about to pop right out of the convective foreskin on that NW side. Things can change in a hurry and I am not 86 any forecasts here at all - just the now-cast gripes. Around 8 am this morning as Henri headed west to about 73W you could see the shear abated a bit , I wonder if as the north motion began the relative shear increased (shear is coming from the north ) , seems to me Henri turned more into the shear and this has a bit more impact that was imagined it would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Mr. Windcredible! said: It was meh-central around here a couple hours ago. I saw one other guy at the hardware store grabbing a gas can and maybe a an extra car or two topping off at the gas station. Seemed like your average day at Stop & Shop. I think some people are still sleeping on this one. Home depot packed to the gills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Had that thought this morning. These can unravel quickly at our latitude. We shall see Yeah, I see no reason this won't unravel fairly quickly. The Cat 1/strong TS calls are banking on at least a weak cat 2 maximum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Word! This thing looks like shit to me at this hour frankly. I keep seeing a flurry of post about explosions and detonations and go look and heh wtf are we looking at. Nick's post with vis loop - it's hard to argue that the inner sanctum of rotation isn't about to pop right out of the convective foreskin on that NW side. Things can change in a hurry and I am not 86 any forecasts here at all - just the now-cast gripes. People see intense convection and prematurely ejaculate before becoming privy to the importance of internal structure and the processes (both internal and external) that dictate it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Mr. Windcredible! said: It was meh-central around here a couple hours ago. I saw one other guy at the hardware store grabbing a gas can and maybe a an extra car or two topping off at the gas station. Seemed like your average day at Stop & Shop. I think some people are still sleeping on this one. I'm going to shop in Yarmouth in a sec... Will be interested to see. I'm going to hit a few marinas too. Maybe get some VO for 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Home depot packed to the gills. That seems like Home Depot everyday, ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Regarding the tornado threat: As some have mentioned in the thread, these systems tend to produce “weak” tornadoes, often EF-0 or EF-1. They’re favored on the right side of a land falling tropical system and it’s rare to have a relatively intact system making landfall on Long Island (or vicinity) in such a way that weakening won’t be rapid. Low to mid-70s dews should advect into southeastern SNE, juxtaposed with enlarged hodographs. The strongest low-level flow should be confined to close to the storm center, but in this scenario below, you could see a tornado threat up to BDL-ORH and possibly BOS. Lapse rates are weak, but deep moisture through the profile and favorite wind fields drive the tornado threat, with only modest instability required. Should add that this may be favorably timed with afternoon heating on Sunday as well. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Around 8 am this morning as Henri headed west to about 73W you could see the shear abated a bit , I wonder if as the north motion began the relative shear increased , seems to me Henri turned more into the shear The lower level would need to be feeling the steering ... It's not a bad approach to figuring it out but it looks like there's still shear in the mid levels from the NNE. I'm beginning to wonder... we may not see a shear abate from that source as much as perhaps anticipated, but similar to what you allude to ...wait until the llv and mid level convection begin to move along with the SSW flow over the eastern arc of the U/A low closing off, that is window of lowering relative shear. pure speculation.. But as far as what is plainly evidence at this hour, the shear is still hosing this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Ugly, this will be a naked swirl with shallow convection at this latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Ugly, this will be a naked swirl with shallow convection at this latitude The center is very elongated and south of there and this storm is still crawling. It may not make it to your latitude per say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Ugly, this will be a naked swirl with shallow convection at this latitude Ha haha .. this may be the most destructive hurricane to ever impact the NE alright - a hurricane name "Cried Wolf" will destroy any uncertainty regarding weather forecast competency, affectingly removal of any doubt - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Still with a big shift west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Also a couple members going happy in their pants 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Still with a big shift west. If you exclude the HMON lookalikes thats the best agreement yet on those ones near MTP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The low is headed right over my backyard. This storm is terrifying, the extreme wind being forecasted in my area remind me of Irene. That was the worst storm I have ever experienced in my lifetime, the wind was so extreme that the trampoline was blown off the ground and started bouncing around my backyard. We lost power for a week, with fallen trees and branches everywhere. My area only got like 2-3 inches of rain, but the extreme wind is what made that storm so devastating in my area. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Good amount of traffic heading to the cape. Saw a line of ever source trucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 This is going to be the second tropical storm or stronger to hit the New England region this year and we still have a long way to go before the end of hurricane season. In my opinion, this year will go down as one of the most severe hurricane seasons on record. 1 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If you exclude the HMON lookalikes thats the best agreement yet on those ones near MTP Yup...and I still don't think this west shift is done. Really not finding much reason to believe otherwise. If we don't see a shift east with 0z tonight I don't think it will happen b/c with the special 18z balloon launches going on (if that is still a thing) you would think the ulvl trough is going to be sampled very well plus the 0z balloon launches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, George001 said: The low is headed right over my backyard. This storm is terrifying, the extreme wind being forecasted in my area remind me of Irene. That was the worst storm I have ever experienced in my lifetime, the wind was so extreme that the trampoline was blown off the ground and started bouncing around my backyard. We lost power for a week, with fallen trees and branches everywhere. My area only got like 2-3 inches of rain, but the extreme wind is what made that storm so devastating in my area. A trampoline is a horizontal sail. Your average summer thunderstorm can bounce one down the neighborhood, or send it over the trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yup...and I still don't think this west shift is done. Really not finding much reason to believe otherwise. If we don't see a shift east with 0z tonight I don't think it will happen b/c with the special 18z balloon launches going on (if that is still a thing) you would think the ulvl trough is going to be sampled very well plus the 0z balloon launches. I'm somwhat inclined to toss the UKIe idea of the wild west bend though. I think like those HURR models and the Euro its more likely to come in on a 330-340 angle somewhere and hold to that idea. The pattern to me does not support anything otherwise unless it becomes a cat 2 or3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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