40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NW heading I am really having less of an issue with a potentially ominous track. What I can't get past is this not unraveling on approach...I don't care what the models show. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The National Hurricane Center at 5pm appears to have this tracking over the Cape. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 NHC giving in. Major shift west on track. Almost all of NE is in the cone now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 That's a massive forecast cone. uncertainty is the word of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: The National Hurricane Center at 5pm appears to have this tracking over the Cape. Wow. They imply the same scenario that I did....a strike over se NE as a TS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: They imply the same scenario that I did....a strike over se NE as a TS. Honestly the most interesting upcoming 24 hours of tropical tracking in SNE for quite some time coming up. Tracking intensity of this is going to be fascinating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They imply the same scenario that I did....a strike over se NE as a TS. In the discussion NHC mentions even with this dramatic shift west they still are on the eastern side of some consensus aids. So possibly more west shifts later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Honestly the most interesting upcoming 24 hours of tropical tracking in SNE for quite some time coming up. Tracking intensity of this is going to be fascinating. I think the envelope for timing is almost as interesting as well Some of the models that get this up here faster before slowing w a NW turn would be 24 hours ahead of NHC map (which is not unheard of at this time frame ) but would pose issues potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think the envelope for timing is almost as interesting as well Some of the models that get this up here faster before slowing w a NW turn would be 24 hours ahead of NHC map (which is not unheard of at this time frame ) but would pose issues potentially There is a shot points north of pike may not even see much of any impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am really having less of an issue with a potentially ominous track. What I can't get past is this not unraveling on approach...I don't care what the models show. It’s got to haul ass up here. Scooter says impossible and if so then it’s nothing more than a windy stormy day . But if we can get it to speed up.. which doesn’t seem totally impossible all bets are off. The NAM is doing that . But at day 5 and the NAM. Well… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s got to haul ass up here. Scooter says impossible and if so then it’s nothing more than a windy stormy day . But if we can get it to speed up.. which doesn’t seem totally impossible all bets are off. The NAM is doing that . But at day 5 and the NAM. Well… Yea, I don't see the avenue to acceleration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 am I seeing it right? it takes 24hrs to go from New Jersey(off the coast) to Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is a shot points north of pike may not even see much of any impact. Oh def this could hook west or to be honest it isn’t that Far East of OBX at day 3 right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't see the avenue to acceleration. Me either. Depending on heading and track though that trade off could be high impact for coastal sections and inland flooding. Wouldn’t take high end wind to cause a lot of problems, especially in my state lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 On the NAM (lol), travels roughly 275-300 miles in 18 hours. 12z Sat- 06z Sun..looks like around 20mph or maybe a bit faster on the last 6 hours of that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s got to haul ass up here. Scooter says impossible and if so then it’s nothing more than a windy stormy day . But if we can get it to speed up.. which doesn’t seem totally impossible all bets are off. The NAM is doing that . But at day 5 and the NAM. Well… Day 5? At 84 hours its 30 miles from MTK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 NAM is more like sugarcane vs hurricane. Weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Icon identical to 12z. CC crusher. Hits and then stalls/spins around cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There is a shot points north of pike may not even see much of any impact. I think it’s going to be cloudy and breezy out this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: On the NAM (lol), travels roughly 275-300 miles in 18 hours. 12z Sat- 06z Sun The NAM is an azz hauler and would bring the havoc and damage most seek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I wonder if even 5-10 mph per hour in forward speed this weekend could be the difference between a cat 2 and a tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 47 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I’m as giddy as a teenager going on their first date. Only difference is I hope the results are better this time Henri is making the "prom night promise". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think it’s going to be cloudy and breezy out this way. Good probability of that at this stage. Something to watch though. If it sneaks a little west and is a slow mover heavy rains could be ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I wonder if even 5-10 mph per hour in forward speed this weekend could be the difference between a cat 2 and a tropical storm? Yeah, that could be the case. Above normal SSTs and wedged within a fairly deep? tropical airmass could be upsides to sustaining itself a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Jay, maybe the News can send you to Block island We could use another Shelby Scott , someone they just stick in the roughest conditions for live reports . It’s like they would Send her out with a tent and some MRE’s to report on a ORH snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Jay, maybe the News can send you to Block island Wouldn't that be a treat. I'll be locked in the basement studio of 7 finding excuses to go look outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Buoy east of HAT, near Henri's projected path. NDBCLocation: 34.775N 72.167WDate: Wed, 18 Aug 2021 21:20:00 UTCWinds: ESE (120°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 ktAtmospheric Pressure: 30.19 inAir Temperature: 83.7 FDew Point: 76.8 FWater Temperature: 84.6 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 If this is a Cat 4 or bordering 5 near or after it makes the turn. (highly unlikely but not impossible), we could be dealing with a very different situation. Let's go! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Very early but through hour 24 the GFS is 10mb weaker.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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