forkyfork Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Serious question... What are your thoughts? Would be helpful for some decision making for clients/red cross. this is a really sensitive setup with non linear reactions to short term changes. if 18z continues the west trend then it's panic time for nyc/li 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 If it stays a mess NYC can keep it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, moneypitmike said: So.....is it time for any new Englanders north of CT and RI to just get on with their work day? Were you planning otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is my hurricane now thx Congrats on the gust to 25 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: If it stays a mess NYC can keep it Yeah, they can have the catastrophic flooding on 10mph breezes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: this is a really sensitive setup with non linear reactions to short term changes. if 18z continues the west trend then it's panic time for nyc/li Very much appreciated, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This red annotated region in that track wedge may as well mail in the insurance forms now ...cuz that's liable to be one contiguous tornado vortex if this ens mean works out... Any reason to expect more than EF1 with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: With 30 mph winds, I thought for sure you had a met degree? Forkyfork too, his hurricane? 30 mph winds Euro might be off with strength. But to be honest, I haven't seen these nasty winds that you normally see at 925mb like in previous storms. It's why I was saying the winds are going to be closer to the center vs what we normally would see. The winds are strong near center, but you'll need more than 50kts at 925 to do damage. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Recon is en route for the next mission, but microwave imagery suggests northerly shear still has Henri quite tilted. It may very well be a hurricane as a result of the convective bursting, but you won’t get big intensification until it becomes more aligned vertically. Was just about to post this exact couple of sentiments - ..and despite the air of exuberance in mood and posting spin, this is still all based on what ifs - granted, more plausible than 'what isn'ts' but ... storm enthusiasts that want to see their neighbor's property denuded from the face of the planet while leaving theirs ...unscathed with power still entitled and in tact, will need to get some realization of intensity/organization profile cooking here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats on the gust to 25 use some meteorology for once 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Ginxy you'd get nasty winds with euro track I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I'm thinking gusts 70-80 mph along CT shoreline with gusts 40-50 mph inland (especially east of River) with 30-40 west. In french we call this "la damage" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: was our infrastructure more tolerant 30yrs ago? Classic emergency management paradigm. You get a disaster, there's documented shortcomings in infrastructure then nothing changes when the next event occurs. But when the next event happens, the baseline infrastructure doesn't get improved yet supports more residences, businesses, etc. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro might be off with strength. But to be honest, I haven't seen these nasty winds that you normally see at 925mb like in previous storms. It's why I was saying the winds are going to be closer to the center vs what we normally would see. The winds are strong near center, but you'll need more than 50kts at 925 to do damage. What’s the general reduction from 925 to surface in a decently mixed environment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I'm still waffling about flying out Monday AM, but seems kind of meh up this way, so might be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, wx_observer said: Any reason to expect more than EF1 with this? These land falling systems don't spin up - or tend to ... - the bigger violent types. They tend to be smaller 0 to 2 leveled whisking by. Which 2 can be deadly ...hell, 1 can be deadly. So can be a sunny day if the husband catches you with 'er - But systemically the trade off in violence is the 'swarming' numbers, in that there can be a lot of rad tripped warnings and dangling ropes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro might be off with strength. But to be honest, I haven't seen these nasty winds that you normally see at 925mb like in previous storms. It's why I was saying the winds are going to be closer to the center vs what we normally would see. The winds are strong near center, but you'll need more than 50kts at 925 to do damage. It really needs to take off between now and tomorrow to become a real wind event. If it made to a 3 before weakening it would make a huge difference. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What’s the general reduction from 925 to surface in a decently mixed environment? You could gust to whatever wind is at for 925. But the mixed area might be more in the warm sector. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy shit its panic city at the stores and shore from what everyone is telling me. Hope its not a case where its mostly meh and then the big one comes. It's such a tough situation b/c you either have to play it up or downplay it right now...there is no in between. By the time we truly know how impactful or un-impactful this will be it will be too late to communicate and too late for people to prepare. That is the scariest part about tropical systems up this way...the lead time to properly prepare is just too little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Logan in NY with like a foot of rain. That was a disaster in that area with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It really needs to take off between now and tomorrow to become a real wind event. If it made to a 3 before weakening it would make a huge difference. Tonight and tomorrow will be the big window. Shear will be really low and environment looks moist. If this can align then it'll take off fast. Regardless of what happens the relatively slow moving nature will cause high surge and flooding. Irene wasn't a hurricane and did tremendous damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Tonight and tomorrow will be the big window. Shear will be really low and environment looks moist. If this can align then it'll take off fast. Regardless of what happens the relatively slow moving nature will cause high surge and flooding. Irene wasn't a hurricane and did tremendous damage. Yeah Irene was very impressive. Lost trees and got several inches of rain in Blackstone. It looks very tilted right now albeit organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Yeah... time to update/re-install some concern spectrum: ... tornado threat with this spread out over all of SNE and probably the southern half of CNE ... There is a flood concern that is rather obvious shore to rain inland, which depending on where this land falls may be west at first... But if it does slow and meander E through southern VT/NH... that can be 24 hours training water boarding and massive problems if that happens. It's figuratively as though the dramatic "20 minutes" of land falling is 20 % of the crisis - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 All I know is I have enough bread and milk now to survive two blizzards of ‘78, a derecho and a strong gust front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It really needs to take off between now and tomorrow to become a real wind event. If it made to a 3 before weakening it would make a huge difference. Yeah—still time and the guidance favors tomorrow more than today, but the clock is ticking and organization takes time, even in a favorable environment. 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You could gust to whatever wind is at for 925. But the mixed area might be more in the warm sector. Very helpful, thanks. 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's such a tough situation b/c you either have to play it up or downplay it right now...there is no in between. By the time we truly know how impactful or un-impactful this will be it will be too late to communicate and too late for people to prepare. That is the scariest part about tropical systems up this way...the lead time to properly prepare is just too little. Play it up. Preparedness over everything else for this one. Even with questions over the wind potential, we know coastal flooding could be significant and the flash flood risk is elevated, especially in central & eastern CT. With a track between New Haven and Westerly, RI this looks high impact to me even if winds are more meh IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 what products are you looking at to see tilt/stacked system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mj-pvd Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I find it odd there is not a watch out for PVD the watches only go up half the bay, the surge surely won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The recon flight is high level so no structure analysis to come.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: what products are you looking at to see tilt/stacked system? You can use your eyeballs on the vis there lol. But microwave would show it also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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