40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Here are some early thoughts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/tropics-heating-up-as-scheduled.html 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 EPS has additional members landfall over SE NE on Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That too, but not sure NNW to pike through CT can happen? Why not rip and read the HMON and send it over ITH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: EPS has additional members landfall over SE NE on Sunday afternoon. And it says we get to model watch all over again around the 29th. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Do we know which model did best with Fred? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Why not rip and read the HMON and send it over ITH. Wineries ftl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here are some early thoughts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/tropics-heating-up-as-scheduled.html Great stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Hoping this goes into Boston Harbor as a cat 3 and wipes out Fenway Park. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Hoping this goes into Boston Harbor as a cat 3 and wipes out Fenway Park. that's just mean spirited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Hoping this goes into Boston Harbor as a cat 3 and wipes out Fenway Park. Or the starting pitching at least 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though. 120mph to 75 in like 15 hours Gutted of wind, still had the water. 4-6" RA in the northern tip of Maine, most between 6 and 10 PM. It blew out Rt 161 in several places west of Ft. Kent and took out a significant fraction of logging road bridges west of Allagash. Some of those "gutted" hurricanes took their revenge with flooding re. 1955. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Of my few Belle memories as I was only eight then was a tremendous thunderstorm the night before. Hence my “pre” obsession 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I'm beginning to buy in to a close shave. Too much consensus to ignore. But I still very much think this could not even make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Another words. Toss it 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another words. Toss it There's simply no way you can consider the euro anything else besides an outlier. It's literally one against the world. It's going to fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Here are some early thoughts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/tropics-heating-up-as-scheduled.html First call OTS as a weakening H1 Cape Cod gets core of rain and NW wind gusts 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I'm beginning to buy in to a close shave. Too much consensus to ignore. But I still very much think this could not even make landfall. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Same. Yeah that’s a safe guess when you take into consideration just how the odds are really stacked against us based on the history of near misses we have over many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 That’s a huge shift west . Suspect we’ll see some first calls changed by tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am not a tide guy ( @Ginx snewx), but this could have some truly epic coastal flooding along the south coast...that will be the story. If the approach is from the SE the fetch would be insane. Tides are high as well. For Emass coast to really get slammed you would want a former large Cat 3 moving slowly NW hitting Narragansett Bay. SE and E fetch city 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s a huge shift west . Suspect we’ll see some first calls changed by tomorrow TVCN is way west which I believe NHC often uses for track guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looking over the total layout from sources... It seems to me this region annotated below is the better region for intensification. The shear should be less over that geographic window of opportunity ... ample warm g-string water .. yadda yadda should Henri make it through that region. Yea, I said the same thing in my blog. Late Fri night into maybe very early Sunday is window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I’m as giddy as a teenager going on their first date. Only difference is I hope the results are better this time 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I’m as giddy as a teenager going on their first date. Only difference is I hope the results are better this time Outtie went Downie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I'm not too excited about a storm traveling ~10kt over and beyond the north wall of the GS. lol Not to say we couldn't get a impressive storm. Need a partial capture/phase and at least 15-20kt though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Nammy would be a cane and takes it toward montauk or so If you extrapolate out to 87 hours . I.E 5 am Sunday am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just shy of hurricane status at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nammy would be a cane and takes it toward montauk or so If you extrapolate out to 87 hours . I.E 5 am Sunday am NW heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I'm focused on two things. I feel like the long fetch and onshore flooding etc is a given. The track has a solid consensus at least on approach. The real question marks that remain IMO: 1. Intensity. Slow approach. Yeah, it could really intensify in the next day or two before impacting us. I don't see how it doesn't weaken on approach. It would be unprecedented to have some slow moving behemoth of a storm directly impact SNE from this direction. Does this have some kind of Sandy impact where it's not taken seriously because it becomes extra tropical before landfall? There's just so much unknown in terms of intensity right now. 2. The hook. What the hell happens with this thing once it gets pushed to shore? For all we know, it could be slower in movement and actually get slingshot south of SNE with worst impacts on the Mid Atlantic. To me somewhere in the middle is the focus right now. I'd be decently concerned for anyone with maritime interests In Narragansett Bay or Long Island Sound. I am already thinking my day off might be spent traveling to and from the cape to take outdoor items inside. Channel 25 Mike L just had a track of a cyclone over the Cape on his broadcast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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