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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though.  120mph to 75 in like 15 hours

Gutted of wind, still had the water.  4-6" RA in the northern tip of Maine, most between 6 and 10 PM.  It blew out Rt 161 in several places west of Ft. Kent and took out a significant fraction of logging road bridges west of Allagash.  Some of those "gutted" hurricanes took their revenge with flooding re. 1955.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am not a tide guy ( @Ginx snewx), but this could have some truly epic coastal flooding along the south coast...that will be the story.

If the approach is from the SE the fetch would be insane. Tides are high as well. For Emass coast to really get slammed you would want a former large Cat 3 moving slowly NW hitting Narragansett Bay. SE and E fetch city

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looking over the total layout from sources... It seems to me this region annotated below is the better region for intensification.   The shear should be less over that geographic window of opportunity ... ample warm g-string water .. yadda yadda should Henri make it through that region.

 

image.thumb.png.3c94d4f6da28fd38c4d552228fb5346a.png

Yea, I said the same thing in my blog. Late Fri night into maybe very early Sunday is window.

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I'm focused on two things. I feel like the long fetch and onshore flooding etc is a given. The track has a solid consensus at least on approach. The real question marks that remain IMO:

1. Intensity. Slow approach. Yeah, it could really intensify in the next day or two before impacting us. I don't see how it doesn't weaken on approach. It would be unprecedented to have some slow moving behemoth of a storm directly impact SNE from this direction. Does this have some kind of Sandy impact where it's not taken seriously because it becomes extra tropical before landfall? There's just so much unknown in terms of intensity right now.

2. The hook. What the hell happens with this thing once it gets pushed to shore? For all we know, it could be slower in movement and actually get slingshot south of SNE with worst impacts on the Mid Atlantic. To me somewhere in the middle is the focus right now. 

I'd be decently concerned for anyone with maritime interests In Narragansett Bay or Long Island Sound. I am already thinking my day off might be spent traveling to and from the cape to take outdoor items inside.

Channel 25 Mike L just had a track of a cyclone over the Cape on his broadcast.

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