MarkO Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 The last couple hours of frames do show nice upper level flows out in a nice uniform pattern. The shear from the north seems to be subsiding as well. Looks like some signs for intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Can’t underestimate the potential for coastal flooding and storm surge, especially in Long Island Sound. Those trajectories just funnel right in. This would be ugly for the Connecticut coast. At least the wind field with this thing isn’t as big as Sandy, but still… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I have not posted in ages, but this could be a storm for the ages. Anyone see the IR detonate the last 6 frames? Explosion, like a gravity wave....very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Or the movie “Condominium” lol… How could I not know of this?? Grizzly Adams in a hurricane?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Bruinsyear said: I have not posted in ages, but this could be a storm for the ages. Anyone see the IR detonate the last 6 frames? Explosion, like a gravity wave....very impressive. God pushed the ignite button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bruinsyear said: I have not posted in ages, but this could be a storm for the ages. Anyone see the IR detonate the last 6 frames? Explosion, like a gravity wave....very impressive. Storm for the ages? I don’t know if I’d go that far? Let’s keep it in control and see what happens over the next 24 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: How could I not know of this?? Grizzly Adams in a hurricane?? You never saw condominium?? Lol. It’s cheesy but if you want to get in the mood?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 NHC extends area of Hurricane Watch for Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London CT until further notice. NHC extends area of Tropical Storm Watch for Northern Fairfield until further notice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12z ICON into western LI NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Storm for the ages? I don’t know if I’d go that far? Let’s keep it in control and see what happens over the next 24 hrs. Notable enough that it’d break the 30-year-long wait between true hurricane LF in the northeast...but honestly the most significant impacts wind wise being confined to a much more confined space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: you can lose your entire home and pretty much everything you own, not to mention life, from flooding. Food can be replaced. You can adapt to losing power...hard to adapt to your house being flooded out. It's a matter of scale with that. At smaller scales, a single home can adapt quickly for obvious logistic easy and access to compensating means ...etc. At society scope -? Nope. Panic ...given time. Social order break downs and anarchistic phases of discord will get scary. It gets into the darker humanities of that kind of violent hording/pillaging ... climbing over the injured in survival fight or flights for potable water, food of any kind by those that have 0 skill but 100% acclimation to the industrial bubble - which ...unfortunately represents 90some percent if every person. With nothing moving any longer along social order.. basically, an apocalypse being a dimension of scope and scale that no one really thinks about because let's face it: The Grid is sort of assumed? It's probably more a philosophical sojourn/sci-fi thing for the banter thread, but ... nothing about Henri imposes that latter extreme scenario, no. Haha. Obviously we'd need something of a different order to bring about that ... I dunno, Yellowstone, a Carrington or comet impact event ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Look let's put the Sandy BS away please. Sandy size Sandy currently has hurricane-force winds extending up to 175 miles (280 kilometers) from its center, and tropical storm-force winds out to 520 miles (835 km), according to the NHC. Henri at max FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 71.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 95SW 60NW. Yep this is nothing like Sandy on a size scale (and likely strength too). The only similarity is the left turn it takes which is somewhat unusual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 We should start to see Henri start to intensify from here on out now, So the question is to what extent it will get too, Now that its entering a better environment with little to no shear as you can see to the north of it with better outflow expanding north instead of compressing the flow east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Icon initialized at 1000mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bruinsyear said: I have not posted in ages, but this could be a storm for the ages. Anyone see the IR detonate the last 6 frames? Explosion, like a gravity wave....very impressive. Slow your roll man. Hurricanes always look great over the gulf stream but slow moving canes hit that cooler water and fill rapidly. Look at the HWRF to see. A good wind hit for some, decent surge and massive rains. But ages yea no 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Quincy said: Can’t underestimate the potential for coastal flooding and storm surge, especially in Long Island Sound. Those trajectories just funnel right in. This would be ugly for the Connecticut coast. At least the wind field with this thing isn’t as big as Sandy, but still… That track would be horrendous for the south shore of LI as well. I’d have to look up high tides but that may be close to high tide. Fire Island and the Hamptons would get walloped. Hopefully this doesn’t keep going west otherwise NY Harbor has to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Storm for the ages? I don’t know if I’d go that far? Let’s keep it in control and see what happens over the next 24 hrs. More just a play on the fact that I haven't posted in ages, but come out for something like this. I agree, I don't expect too much from this storm. At the speed at which it approaches it will erode fast. A side from a few locations South Shore and Island most will be lucky to achieve anything on the low end of a tropical storm condition. Unless this ramps up well beyond current intensification forecasts in the next 24-26 hours. Even a major storm off the Carolinas will get gutted pretty good by the time it makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 A high end cat 1 is not one for the ages............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Any chance at all this can either pivot into NJ or stall south of Long Island? 12z RGEM really isn’t that far away from doing that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Storm for the ages? I don’t know if I’d go that far? Let’s keep it in control and see what happens over the next 24 hrs. Thanks for the lecture 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snugharbor Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Is this trending westward "nudge" an indication Henri isn't going to intensify a hell of a lot -- and/or the trough that's to the west is stronger than indicated? Or both? What's the reason for the continual "movement" that way. Or is some of it related to the storm itself just being further to the west at the moment than anticipated. The power outtages suck but we're used to it. It's more the coastal high tide/full moon coinciding that is the concern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 That being said the surge won’t be nearly as bad as Sandy. As others pointed out the driver for the surge there was the huge size and track which funneled water into LI Sound and NY Harbor. But if this starts really trending west toward Sandy Hook then NYC really does have to start worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Any chance at all this can either pivot into NJ or stall south of Long Island? 12z RGEM really isn’t that far away from doing that lol Congrats philly on the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: A high end cat 1 is not one for the ages............lol Define "Ages". When New England hasn't seen a land-falling Hurricane in many posters here lifetime, I'd say it's noteworthy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 RGEM also initialized at 1001mb why are some models initializing above a 1000 mb when it clearly not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Define "Ages". When New England hasn't seen a land-falling Hurricane in many posters here lifetime, I'd say it's noteworthy. Note only that but the tree growth that SNE has had since 1991 is significant and with recent rains it won’t take much to brings some down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Like a bomb of convection went off last hour around 30N / 73.5 And spread out The "fanning" characteristic over the entire N outflow at upper levels is more indicative for me. But, in this case it may be 6 a dozen or half another because the better symmetry aloft may in fact be physically tied into that 'pulse' As far as the pulse its self, in a vaccuum it means less to me. We see these flare ups and have along the way, with Henri and every thing in history Lol. I think also we collectively are like carpet surfing crack discard for the petty nugget find to spark off in our pipes ... j/k. I love that metaphor. Seriously though, I wouldn't be surprised if we are seeing the instensity about to bite down hard over these ensuing 12 hours. I'm a little bit concerned shy of bun-merit for the anecdotal climate of how systems that make it through hostile guanlets and live to strengthen, tend to go a bit crazy - it's almost like they have stored momentum/battery that adds to the environmental favoring, and they like synergistically get a feed-back. interesting... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff Grann Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That being said the surge won’t be nearly as bad as Sandy. As others pointed out the driver for the surge there was the huge size and track which funneled water into LI Sound and NY Harbor. But if this starts really trending west toward Sandy Hook then NYC really does have to start worrying. Sandy made landfall down around Atlantic City a hundred miles south of New York Harbor if this thing came right into New York Harbor or say into Sandy Hook it would not need to be as strong as Sandy to cause similar flooding into Manhattan. It is also very slow moving and will have multiple high tides that will not be able to go back out if that is the case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Define "Ages". When New England hasn't seen a land-falling Hurricane in many posters here lifetime, I'd say it's noteworthy. Was it Irene down your way? It was Bob up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: RGEM also initialized at 1001mb why are some models initializing above a 1000 mb when it clearly not? Because they suck at TC modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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